Ruto, Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo, Matiangi, RiggyG chessmoves.

[Tactician]

1) Ad hominem means the argument is lost.  Just address the point.

2) Melon goes to WSR for running mate and there are second-round effects. ODM/RAO would just bolt out.  Cannot accommodate everyone.

You're analyzing politics with emotions.
Aside from Ruto-Gachagua whose fallout is still raw and fresh - all these guys will make deals - when deal is good.
Waiting for 2nd round deal - is risky - because someone wins and you're not needed.
Kalonzo if he has a brain should have 3 teams now.
1) Team one - working hard to be opposition joint candidate - to show them why Matiangi at 5% gusii base - is worse than 10% ukambani - and secondly threaten to revolt and back Ruto.

2) Team Two - work with Ruto - both Ruto, Raila and Uhuru are doing this - play all sides - opposition and gov. The more he is known as Ruto hater - the more he is mistreated - because people know he has LIMITED MOVES on the chess board.

3) Team Three - easiest of all - give you name to IEBC and run - wait to win Ukambani 8%.

Having campaigned against WSR for so long, Option 2 would just destroy his credibility among his people with a significant portion of his base hiving off.

Option 1 is best for him - especially as it seems no one will get 50% in Rd1 with multiple candidates (WSR, Matiangi, Melon, possible Rao).  Then negotiating in Rd 2 even with WSR becomes palatable

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will only pick Kalonzo - if ODM are not available - and Kindiki has not recovered Mt kenya east. KK+ODM makes election of 2027 pretty useless - as Ruto wins with 60% plus. Ruto definitely interested in nailing ODM and has put them in statehouse - but he has to fix Raila and odinga family.


In scenario where UDA-ODM fallout - there is possibility Uhuru will convince Raila to run at 82yrs

Ruto assume loses all GEMA (he had 80%) - 20% of his 50% (or 40% of his 100%) - he he is left with 30% - - Kalonzo bring 10% - that is 40% - he grows the rest from pastoralist+coastal areas -10%. He wins narrowly again.

Ruto only need 10%  from someone else- if you assume same votes as 2022 - he needs 1.5M votes from Kalonzo or kindiki

Or even Luhyas-> Ruto got 30-40% of Luhyas a whole - will check - Bungoma 65% was overset by Busia, Kakamega - and was 50-50 in Vihiga.If giving a Luhya DPORK will assure Ruto of 10% - which is clean sweep of Luhyaland - that possibility - for in reality - it just not possible - too divided. Maybe maDVD can excite them - but Baluhya is too complicated.

1) Ad hominem means the argument is lost.  Just address the point.

2) Melon goes to WSR for running mate and there are second-round effects. ODM/RAO would just bolt out.  Cannot accommodate everyone.

[Tactician]

1) KK + ODM may win, but either way it will still be a close election which can go eitherway.  Why?

 - RAO got 49% in 2022. Remove Kalonzo's 9% leaving 40%

 - Remove the Mt Kenya 6%, leaving 34%

 - Remove the Gusii 6%, that leaves 28%,

 - Remove yet another 4-5% from the Luhya + Somali (cos of clans) + Coast who will rebel, leaving 24%.

 - the 24% is still the equivalent of the lost Mt Kenya vote.  Just replacing Mt Kenya with a disjoiinted block to possibly get another 51%.  Tight election.

Ruto will only pick Kalonzo - if ODM are not available - and Kindiki has not recovered Mt kenya east. KK+ODM makes election of 2027 pretty useless - as Ruto wins with 60% plus. Ruto definitely interested in nailing ODM and has put them in statehouse - but he has to fix Raila and odinga family.


In scenario where UDA-ODM fallout - there is possibility Uhuru will convince Raila to run at 82yrs

Ruto assume loses all GEMA (he had 80%) - 20% of his 50% (or 40% of his 100%) - he he is left with 30% - - Kalonzo bring 10% - that is 40% - he grows the rest from pastoralist+coastal areas -10%. He wins narrowly again.

Ruto only need 10%  from someone else- if you assume same votes as 2022 - he needs 1.5M votes from Kalonzo or kindiki

Or even Luhyas-> Ruto got 30-40% of Luhyas a whole - will check - Bungoma 65% was overset by Busia, Kakamega - and was 50-50 in Vihiga.If giving a Luhya DPORK will assure Ruto of 10% - which is clean sweep of Luhyaland - that possibility - for in reality - it just not possible - too divided. Maybe maDVD can excite them - but Baluhya is too complicated.

1) Ad hominem means the argument is lost.  Just address the point.

2) Melon goes to WSR for running mate and there are second-round effects. ODM/RAO would just bolt out.  Cannot accommodate everyone.

[RV Pundit]

30+24=54%;
Let ignore 10% Ruto will gain from incumbency.
If Ruto+Raila agree to a deal; it over.
Ruto needs 50% plus one.

We shall see if Uhuru will ensare Raila; Uhuru himself has 3 mt kenya guys in cabinet;

Ultimately smart money will be on 2032....2027 is dry run.

Ruto in 2yrs will claw back support from 2yrs of painful reforms and sacrifices.

1) KK + ODM may win, but either way it will still be a close election which can go eitherway.  Why?

 - RAO got 49% in 2022. Remove Kalonzo's 9% leaving 40%

 - Remove the Mt Kenya 6%, leaving 34%

 - Remove the Gusii 6%, that leaves 28%,

 - Remove yet another 4-5% from the Luhya + Somali (cos of clans) + Coast who will rebel, leaving 24%.

 - the 24% is still the equivalent of the lost Mt Kenya vote.  Just replacing Mt Kenya with a disjoiinted block to possibly get another 51%.  Tight election.

[Nefertiti]

Big IF.

Incumbency has pros n cons. Hard to replay "hustler vs dynasty" and bottom-up as incumbent.
Basically, gain incumbency, lose reformer/disrupter position.

30+24=54%;
Let ignore 10% Ruto will gain from incumbency.
If Ruto+Raila agree to a deal; it over.
Ruto needs 50% plus one.

We shall see if Uhuru will ensare Raila; Uhuru himself has 3 mt kenya guys in cabinet;

Ultimately smart money will be on 2032....2027 is dry run.

Ruto in 2yrs will claw back support from 2yrs of painful reforms and sacrifices.

1) KK + ODM may win, but either way it will still be a close election which can go eitherway.  Why?

 - RAO got 49% in 2022. Remove Kalonzo's 9% leaving 40%

 - Remove the Mt Kenya 6%, leaving 34%

 - Remove the Gusii 6%, that leaves 28%,

 - Remove yet another 4-5% from the Luhya + Somali (cos of clans) + Coast who will rebel, leaving 24%.

 - the 24% is still the equivalent of the lost Mt Kenya vote.  Just replacing Mt Kenya with a disjoiinted block to possibly get another 51%.  Tight election.

[Nefertiti]

Patriotic front: Wiper’s rebrand ahead of 2027
Despite his credentials, Kalonzo faces stiff competition in the race to become the opposition coalition’s presidential flagbearer.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/realtime/2025-05-21-patriotic-front-wipers-rebrand-ahead-of-2027

This star story copy-pasted your Kalonzo status in this thread. 👀

[RV Pundit]

Only hard if you dont deliver on your promises;
And if you become tribal like Kibaki;
Murima Murima RiggyG have decided to run away with tribalism tag while in opposition; Pretty stupid at many levels;
The way I see - Ruto has a good chance to do 80-90% of the job.

To do the job going forward - now economy has stabilized - he needs tangible projects in rural areas and urban slums.

Paving roads, water projects, electricity supply - in every const - complete pending projects and then start you own in 2026/2027.

The signature projects like Mombasa-Nairobi-Malaba expressway and SGR means Ruto will have exceed all previous presidents.


So in the 2yrs remaining he can still regain grounds nationally - beyond playing the easy Anti-Kikuyism.

Big IF.

Incumbency has pros n cons. Hard to replay "hustler vs dynasty" and bottom-up as incumbent.
Basically, gain incumbency, lose reformer/disrupter position.

[Nefertiti]

I think you and Tactician are wrong on this - Riggy has no plan to run for PORK. He is going for kingmaker 2027, then PORK 2032. So he is playing brazen tribe card akin to Ruto 2009-13. Izzy-pizzy. It's strategy not stupidity.

Projects: isn't Kenya broke? How will the rest of the projects be completed/started besides SGR? (Sorry I haven't peeked at Mbadi's budget.)

Only hard if you dont deliver on your promises;
And if you become tribal like Kibaki;
Murima Murima RiggyG have decided to run away with tribalism tag while in opposition; Pretty stupid at many levels;
The way I see - Ruto has a good chance to do 80-90% of the job.

To do the job going forward - now economy has stabilized - he needs tangible projects in rural areas and urban slums.

Paving roads, water projects, electricity supply - in every const - complete pending projects and then start you own in 2026/2027.

The signature projects like Mombasa-Nairobi-Malaba expressway and SGR means Ruto will have exceed all previous presidents.


So in the 2yrs remaining he can still regain grounds nationally - beyond playing the easy Anti-Kikuyism.

Big IF.

Incumbency has pros n cons. Hard to replay "hustler vs dynasty" and bottom-up as incumbent.
Basically, gain incumbency, lose reformer/disrupter position.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, as long as no Kikuyu will be head of ticket, they will avoid - that tribalism tag;
Ruto knows how to look for money.

I think you and Tactician are wrong on this - Riggy has no plan to run for PORK. He is going for kingmaker 2027, then PORK 2032. So he is playing brazen tribe card akin to Ruto 2009-13. Izzy-pizzy. It's strategy not stupidity.

Projects: isn't Kenya broke? How will the rest of the projects be completed/started besides SGR? (Sorry I haven't peeked at Mbadi's budget.)

[Tactician]

Kingmaker in 2027, maybe.

PORK in 2032? Riggy G can never hold public office.  Not in 2027, 2032 or 2042.  It's forever - until he is dead - unless we change the constitution. 

He's on the same path as Sonko - influential in making noise/mobilisation but useless in the boardroom

I think you and Tactician are wrong on this - Riggy has no plan to run for PORK. He is going for kingmaker 2027, then PORK 2032. So he is playing brazen tribe card akin to Ruto 2009-13. Izzy-pizzy. It's strategy not stupidity.

Projects: isn't Kenya broke? How will the rest of the projects be completed/started besides SGR? (Sorry I haven't peeked at Mbadi's budget.)

Only hard if you dont deliver on your promises;
And if you become tribal like Kibaki;
Murima Murima RiggyG have decided to run away with tribalism tag while in opposition; Pretty stupid at many levels;
The way I see - Ruto has a good chance to do 80-90% of the job.

To do the job going forward - now economy has stabilized - he needs tangible projects in rural areas and urban slums.

Paving roads, water projects, electricity supply - in every const - complete pending projects and then start you own in 2026/2027.

The signature projects like Mombasa-Nairobi-Malaba expressway and SGR means Ruto will have exceed all previous presidents.


So in the 2yrs remaining he can still regain grounds nationally - beyond playing the easy Anti-Kikuyism.

Big IF.

Incumbency has pros n cons. Hard to replay "hustler vs dynasty" and bottom-up as incumbent.
Basically, gain incumbency, lose reformer/disrupter position.

[Nefertiti]

He might win or still be in court by next election.. that's what he will sell as he cuts deals.

Kingmaker in 2027, maybe.

PORK in 2032? Riggy G can never hold public office.  Not in 2027, 2032 or 2042.  It's forever - until he is dead - unless we change the constitution. 

He's on the same path as Sonko - influential in making noise/mobilisation but useless in the boardroom

I think you and Tactician are wrong on this - Riggy has no plan to run for PORK. He is going for kingmaker 2027, then PORK 2032. So he is playing brazen tribe card akin to Ruto 2009-13. Izzy-pizzy. It's strategy not stupidity.

Projects: isn't Kenya broke? How will the rest of the projects be completed/started besides SGR? (Sorry I haven't peeked at Mbadi's budget.)

Only hard if you dont deliver on your promises;
And if you become tribal like Kibaki;
Murima Murima RiggyG have decided to run away with tribalism tag while in opposition; Pretty stupid at many levels;
The way I see - Ruto has a good chance to do 80-90% of the job.

To do the job going forward - now economy has stabilized - he needs tangible projects in rural areas and urban slums.

Paving roads, water projects, electricity supply - in every const - complete pending projects and then start you own in 2026/2027.

The signature projects like Mombasa-Nairobi-Malaba expressway and SGR means Ruto will have exceed all previous presidents.


So in the 2yrs remaining he can still regain grounds nationally - beyond playing the easy Anti-Kikuyism.

Big IF.

Incumbency has pros n cons. Hard to replay "hustler vs dynasty" and bottom-up as incumbent.
Basically, gain incumbency, lose reformer/disrupter position.

[Githunguri]

Never treat another adult as a child or think that you are smarter.remember you are not dealing with 5 year old boys.

[RV Pundit]

He will definitely fight all the way to supreme court - he should delay getting final verdict - until after 2027 - as judiciary will not cause constitutional crisis by overturning his impeachment.

After elections - they can overturn it - and give him damages.

He might win or still be in court by next election.. that's what he will sell as he cuts deals.

[Tactician]

Definitely his plan.

His hangers-on will edge him on to run for prez, so that they tag along his coattails and win MP/governor seats.  And when (not if) he loses, they will be safely ensconced in bunge eating for the next 5 years.

What a pity Mt Kenya has reduced itself to

He will definitely fight all the way to supreme court - he should delay getting final verdict - until after 2027 - as judiciary will not cause constitutional crisis by overturning his impeachment.

After elections - they can overturn it - and give him damages.

He might win or still be in court by next election.. that's what he will sell as he cuts deals.

[RV Pundit]

HE CANNOT RUN - until he overturns his impeachment.
This I am running is edging his stakes;
He is going to sell DCP to Kenyatta or form a coalition - where he will be promised Prime Minister

Definitely his plan.

His hangers-on will edge him on to run for prez, so that they tag along his coattails and win MP/governor seats.  And when (not if) he loses, they will be safely ensconced in bunge eating for the next 5 years.

What a pity Mt Kenya has reduced itself to

[Nefertiti]

False dichotomy. Courts can declare illegality without overturning the process. Such that Riggy becomes eligible for office but not get the job back.

This is what I see happening.

He will definitely fight all the way to supreme court - he should delay getting final verdict - until after 2027 - as judiciary will not cause constitutional crisis by overturning his impeachment.

After elections - they can overturn it - and give him damages.

He might win or still be in court by next election.. that's what he will sell as he cuts deals.

[Nefertiti]

Raila-Kalonzo-Riggy

Kalonzo is brainless otherwise he would milk Ruto big. But he is dumb so this ticket is possible.

HE CANNOT RUN - until he overturns his impeachment.
This I am running is edging his stakes;
He is going to sell DCP to Kenyatta or form a coalition - where he will be promised Prime Minister

Definitely his plan.

His hangers-on will edge him on to run for prez, so that they tag along his coattails and win MP/governor seats.  And when (not if) he loses, they will be safely ensconced in bunge eating for the next 5 years.

What a pity Mt Kenya has reduced itself to

[patel]

Riggy G base is only transferable to Kalonzo. I see Riggy G giving Kalonzo through pass on 89th minute. That will give kalonzo almost 40%. Kalonzo just need 11% to win. Will Luo rudisha mkono after being supported by Kamba 2X.  Hardest part for Kenya kwanza is to convince another big kabila to take VP after what they have done to Gema after delivering the presidency! 

[RV Pundit]

Legal absurdity.
Courts can only declare impeachment null and void.
They are not the court in this case - to slice and dice how it went.
RiggyG was tried by Senate. Senate was the COURT in the case.
They can only approve or disapprove the impeachment.
Only way is in 2028 - then they can say impeachment was null and void - but because 2022-20237 ended- RiggyG is eligble to run.

Realistically how RiggyG escape this is beyond me.
Senate & Parliament followed the laws and procedures strictly - unlike before in earlier impeachment like Wambora case;
Whenever RiggyG got something thrown - they waited - they unlocked it.

It been hard post Wambora to escape impeachment because now people obey court orders, ensure they tick all the boxes, and you're left with merit & demerits of the case - which court cannot go into -as parliament is the court here.

RiggyG is gone.

False dichotomy. Courts can declare illegality without overturning the process. Such that Riggy becomes eligible for office but not get the job back.

This is what I see happening.

[RV Pundit]

GEMA boss is not 40% of kenya.
Kikuyus are 17% pop wise - in 2019 - and will be 15% in 2027.
They have slightly more adult.
Ruto job is simple - make the other tribes to register and votes - and reduce this Kikuyu nonsense to at best 17% - with Mt kenya cousins - 20%.

Riggy G base is only transferable to Kalonzo. I see Riggy G giving Kalonzo through pass on 89th minute. That will give kalonzo almost 40%. Kalonzo just need 11% to win. Will Luo rudisha mkono after being supported by Kamba 2X.  Hardest part for Kenya kwanza is to convince another big kabila to take VP after what they have done to Gema after delivering the presidency!