Ruto, Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo, Matiangi, RiggyG chessmoves.

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

🟢 Ruto
Problem: Lost 20% of 50% 2022 voter-base (~3M total GEMA votes). Needs to rebuild KK or new coalition.

Move 1: Expand in KAMATAUSA (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, Samburu), Coast, NEP, and other "government-in-power" tribes that voted ~75% Azimio — chip away at ODM’s base. Aim to half the "GEMA problem".

Move 2: Retain Kindiki to anchor Mt. Kenya East + diaspora; aim for 30% GEMA by convincing them it’s the shortest path back to power - as in other coalition they are going 10yrs out of power.

Move 3: Finalize a deal with ODM — after current sharing power. Raila’s AU failure complicate an honorable retirement, and Uhuru is likely pushing for an Azimio rerun. Aim for ODM deal by 2026 if not kick them out slowly. You dont want 2002 NARC revolution led by Raila.

Move 4: Target Kalonzo as DPORK to flip Lower Eastern (~1.5M votes) and disrupt Azimio unity.

[RV Pundit]

🔵 Raila

Status: Post-AU, weakened. Aging - will 82yrs in 2027 - still looks ok. Still popular in ODM circles.

Move 1 : Be a kingmaker, aim for 50-50 deal with Ruto and pick deputy from Luo-Nyanza or even become deputy president (who cares).

Move 2: Re-make Azimio if anti-Ruto sentiment nationally and esp in GEMA persists. Last minute dump Ruto and re-unite with Uhuru + Kalonzo + Mt. Kenya deputy. Beat Ruto overwhelming he wont be able to rig. You'll need jesus to convince Kalonzo to step down for 4th time.

Move 3: If Uhuru has 30B Kes, take the money, let someone else run (e.g., Kalonzo, Matiang’i) under Azimio+ Mt Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

🟣 Matiang’i

Status: Currently popular among Mt kenya & anti-Ruto crowd as he seen as Ruto's anti-dote but has no grassroots machine.

Move 1: Wait for Uhuru-Muhoho to make you the president. Kalonzo is the biggest opponent/spoiler.

Move 2 : Wait for combined opposition to see you're the guy to beat Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

🟡 Kalonzo

Status: Should ideally be Opposition candidate but once again the much younger Matiangi & RiggyG have overtaken him

Move 1: Hope Azimio+Mt kenya sees your incredible handsomeness and make you the candidate with Mt. Kenya deputy & Raila support. Even without Raila - you'd still post a respect 35-40%.

Move 2: Negotiate DPORK with Ruto — with 2032 succession promise.

Move 3: Accept to any position in opposition, hopefully deputize (tough as Mt kenya will not accept to lose both PORK and DPORK) Matiangi, and 85yrs late in 2037 run for presidency


It will be tempting to keep all options until late 2027 but I'd make early move by negotiating 1-2 CS with Ruto now - and become versatile like Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Riggy G (Gachagua)

Status: Impeached but holding on GEMA. Build on the anger and sympathy - and hopefully you'll allowed to run (slim chances)

Move 1: Try to consolidate mt kenya backing and negotiate for any position or MOU - if not impeached go for Deputy - presidency is too steep a murima for you.

Move 2:  Sell Mt Kenya support to Uhuru Kenyatta  - being impeached means you're done.

Move 3:  Whatever you do, try to survive until supreme court return final verdict on your case.

[RV Pundit]

🔴 Uhuru
Status: Behind the scenes, slowly reorganizing GEMA, re-capture power via proxy or push Muhoho.

Move 1: Back Mt. Kenya shift away from Ruto —promote  Matiangi with Muhoho as running mate - or Kalonzo - ride ant-Ruto coalition without Raila.

Move 2: Get Raila for re-match and revenge the post-2022 humiliation. Buy off Kalonzo. Buy off Gachagua. Matiangi will do what you want.

Move 3: Knowing the power of incumbency, negotiate with Ruto, backs Kindiki, get Muhoho to gov, and aim for 2032.

[Nefertiti]

Good stuff.

On Ruto: you need to note early (smart) rigging by registering Somali, etc refugees in NFD.

On Kalonzo: after bashing Ruto for years it will be hard to pivot. Might be equally hard to join Ruto as deputize Raila. 3rd horse?

[Tactician]

Kalonzo will be 73 in 2027 and 78 in 2032.

Unlikely a promise for 2032 will work.  Not with the younger generation already at par/ahead of him.

As I have said before, once UK/WSR took over in 2013/22, the generation of RAO and Kalonzo became kaput. 

🟡 Kalonzo

Status: Should ideally be Opposition candidate but once again the much younger Matiangi & RiggyG have overtaken him

Move 1: Hope Azimio+Mt kenya sees your incredible handsomeness and make you the candidate with Mt. Kenya deputy & Raila support. Even without Raila - you'd still post a respect 35-40%.

Move 2: Negotiate DPORK with Ruto — with 2032 succession promise.

Move 3: Accept to any position in opposition, hopefully deputize (tough as Mt kenya will not accept to lose both PORK and DPORK) Matiangi, and 85yrs late in 2037 run for presidency


It will be tempting to keep all options until late 2027 but I'd make early move by negotiating 1-2 CS with Ruto now - and become versatile like Raila.

[Tactician]

Riggy G is done. Impeachment has almost zero chances of recovery.

And if he cannot run for prez, then he also cannot run for DP as the qualifications are the same.  Same for Cabinet positions (PM/Minister).

What he has done is to run to the people, the people haven't run to him.   Come election season and he will fizzle out

Riggy G (Gachagua)

Status: Impeached but holding on GEMA. Build on the anger and sympathy - and hopefully you'll allowed to run (slim chances)

Move 1: Try to consolidate mt kenya backing and negotiate for any position or MOU - if not impeached go for Deputy - presidency is too steep a murima for you.

Move 2:  Sell Mt Kenya support to Uhuru Kenyatta  - being impeached means you're done.

Move 3:  Whatever you do, try to survive until supreme court return final verdict on your case.

[Tactician]

30% from Mt Kenya? Adjust that to 3%.

🟢 Ruto
Problem: Lost 20% of 50% 2022 voter-base (~3M total GEMA votes). Needs to rebuild KK or new coalition.

Move 1: Expand in KAMATAUSA (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, Samburu), Coast, NEP, and other "government-in-power" tribes that voted ~75% Azimio — chip away at ODM’s base. Aim to half the "GEMA problem".

Move 2: Retain Kindiki to anchor Mt. Kenya East + diaspora; aim for 30% GEMA by convincing them it’s the shortest path back to power - as in other coalition they are going 10yrs out of power.

Move 3: Finalize a deal with ODM — after current sharing power. Raila’s AU failure complicate an honorable retirement, and Uhuru is likely pushing for an Azimio rerun. Aim for ODM deal by 2026 if not kick them out slowly. You dont want 2002 NARC revolution led by Raila.

Move 4: Target Kalonzo as DPORK to flip Lower Eastern (~1.5M votes) and disrupt Azimio unity.

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo has run now and latest is 2032.
What would be impossible is to tell him to wait out for Matiangi or anyone else to run in 2037 when he will be 83yrs.
For now if Kalonzo doesnt get Opposition join ticket.
He has two options
1) Run for sake and negotiate post election 
2) Run to Ruto and beg for Kindiki to be eased out and then become Deputy again - and 2032 hope coalition backs him.

Kalonzo will be 73 in 2027 and 78 in 2032.

Unlikely a promise for 2032 will work.  Not with the younger generation already at par/ahead of him.

As I have said before, once UK/WSR took over in 2013/22, the generation of RAO and Kalonzo became kaput. 

[RV Pundit]

1) Ruto has IEBC - 5 - and will do monkey games whenever opposition will not have Protect the Vote.
2) Part of filling the void from GEMA is to do A- game of registering, turning out and protecting the vote (GOTV).
3) There are no permanent enemies - these guys you'd be suprised are now drinking together - Kalonzo occasionally sneak to Statehouse. Bei ikifika deal. He may ask for 5B KES and DPORK.

Good stuff.

On Ruto: you need to note early (smart) rigging by registering Somali, etc refugees in NFD.

On Kalonzo: after bashing Ruto for years it will be hard to pivot. Might be equally hard to join Ruto as deputize Raila. 3rd horse?

[RV Pundit]

You mean remove Kindiki - and look elsewhere. It still long way to go. Kindiki last ditch effort will be cut a deal with Kenyattas - Kindiki need to sell a 2032 vision of power returning to GEMA. It hard sale considering how quickly Gachagua was dumped.

Definitely its looking like DPORK will go ODM or Kalonzo.

30% from Mt Kenya? Adjust that to 3%.

[RV Pundit]

He is going through all the stages of grieving but the reality is that he is done.  The best he can hope is DCP to become the main party of Mt kenya - and he can use it negotiate deals pre and post elections.

He is also playing hard ball hoping Ruto will work the judiciary and release him from impeachment bondage.

His best move now is to sell Mt kenya to Muhoho Kenyatta -- and cash the money (ask for 10 Billion) - and sell Kenyattas as the Muthamakis. He goes back to being Kenyatta kym like he was before limelight.

Riggy G is done. Impeachment has almost zero chances of recovery.

And if he cannot run for prez, then he also cannot run for DP as the qualifications are the same.  Same for Cabinet positions (PM/Minister).

What he has done is to run to the people, the people haven't run to him.   Come election season and he will fizzle out

[Tactician]

Having campaigned against WSR for so long, Option 2 would just destroy his credibility among his people with a significant portion of his base hiving off.

Option 1 is best for him - especially as it seems no one will get 50% in Rd1 with multiple candidates (WSR, Matiangi, Melon, possible Rao).  Then negotiating in Rd 2 even with WSR becomes palatable

Kalonzo has run now and latest is 2032.
What would be impossible is to tell him to wait out for Matiangi or anyone else to run in 2037 when he will be 83yrs.
For now if Kalonzo doesnt get Opposition join ticket.
He has two options
1) Run for sake and negotiate post election 
2) Run to Ruto and beg for Kindiki to be eased out and then become Deputy again - and 2032 hope coalition backs him.

Kalonzo will be 73 in 2027 and 78 in 2032.

Unlikely a promise for 2032 will work.  Not with the younger generation already at par/ahead of him.

As I have said before, once UK/WSR took over in 2013/22, the generation of RAO and Kalonzo became kaput. 

[Tactician]

Undoing impeachment is politically untenable for both Gachagua and WSR.

Suppose today the courts upend the impeachment.  That would mean Gachagua becomes the DP once again and the swearing in of Kindiki is annulled. 

How do WSR and Gachagua work together after that? How will it sit for Gachagua to go into the employ of the guy he has been bashing 24/7?

He is going through all the stages of grieving but the reality is that he is done.  The best he can hope is DCP to become the main party of Mt kenya - and he can use it negotiate deals pre and post elections.

He is also playing hard ball hoping Ruto will work the judiciary and release him from impeachment bondage.

His best move now is to sell Mt kenya to Muhoho Kenyatta -- and cash the money (ask for 10 Billion) - and sell Kenyattas as the Muthamakis. He goes back to being Kenyatta kym like he was before limelight.

Riggy G is done. Impeachment has almost zero chances of recovery.

And if he cannot run for prez, then he also cannot run for DP as the qualifications are the same.  Same for Cabinet positions (PM/Minister).

What he has done is to run to the people, the people haven't run to him.   Come election season and he will fizzle out

[RV Pundit]

You're analyzing politics with emotions.
Aside from Ruto-Gachagua whose fallout is still raw and fresh - all these guys will make deals - when deal is good.
Waiting for 2nd round deal - is risky - because someone wins and you're not needed.
Kalonzo if he has a brain should have 3 teams now.
1) Team one - working hard to be opposition joint candidate - to show them why Matiangi at 5% gusii base - is worse than 10% ukambani - and secondly threaten to revolt and back Ruto.

2) Team Two - work with Ruto - both Ruto, Raila and Uhuru are doing this - play all sides - opposition and gov. The more he is known as Ruto hater - the more he is mistreated - because people know he has LIMITED MOVES on the chess board.

3) Team Three - easiest of all - give you name to IEBC and run - wait to win Ukambani 8%.

Having campaigned against WSR for so long, Option 2 would just destroy his credibility among his people with a significant portion of his base hiving off.

Option 1 is best for him - especially as it seems no one will get 50% in Rd1 with multiple candidates (WSR, Matiangi, Melon, possible Rao).  Then negotiating in Rd 2 even with WSR becomes palatable

[RV Pundit]

That is why Judiciary will not interfere with work of both houses and cause a constitutional crisis;
He is forever impeached.
The judiciary cannot examine the merits and demerits of his impeachment and overrule the senate trial - give Solomonic ruling - rescuing impeachment sting and - not telling to go back to work.
They would have to overrule everything - and declare it null & void - and create huge constitutional crisis.

Undoing impeachment is politically untenable for both Gachagua and WSR.

Suppose today the courts upend the impeachment.  That would mean Gachagua becomes the DP once again and the swearing in of Kindiki is annulled. 

How do WSR and Gachagua work together after that? How will it sit for Gachagua to go into the employ of the guy he has been bashing 24/7?

[Tactician]

Politically untenable to start another impeachment - so WSR would have to wait until 2027 Mar/Apr and choose another running mate - most probably from ODM if Rao doesnt make his last stab at the prez 

As for Kindiki selling 2032 candidature, the fella is hapless today - zero charisma, zero public speaking skills, zero claim to fame.  WSR is simply doing what Jomo did with Moi, Moi with Saitoti, and Kibaki with Moody - have a weak VP and thus keep all other competing candidates supporting you as they have hope to ascend (Jomo with Mboya/Kibaki/Njonjo/Njoroge Muigai/Towett/Ngei etc, Moi with MDVD, Melon, Rao, Uhuru, Kibaki with Melon, Rao, Mukhisa, Ngilu, Musikari Kombo etc).

You mean remove Kindiki - and look elsewhere. It still long way to go. Kindiki last ditch effort will be cut a deal with Kenyattas - Kindiki need to sell a 2032 vision of power returning to GEMA. It hard sale considering how quickly Gachagua was dumped.

Definitely its looking like DPORK will go ODM or Kalonzo.

30% from Mt Kenya? Adjust that to 3%.

[RV Pundit]

He wont be impeached of course. But he will be dumped in 2027. He will continue to be Deputy President until after election.
Ruto will keep him but if  ODM/Wiper coalition happens - his position will be given out - and he will be given something else - maybe HEAD OF IGAD or EAC or ECOWAS:) even or AFCAT - he takes or leave.

So far I am not writing him off. Mt Kenya Kiburi belies the cold reality that beating Ruto is going to be hard.

Politically untenable to start another impeachment - so WSR would have to wait until 2027 Mar/Apr and choose another running mate - most probably from ODM if Rao doesnt make his last stab at the prez 

As for Kindiki selling 2032 candidature, the fella is hapless today - zero charisma, zero public speaking skills, zero claim to fame.  WSR is simply doing what Jomo did with Moi, Moi with Saitoti, and Kibaki with Moody - have a weak VP and thus keep all other competing candidates supporting you as they have hope to ascend (Jomo with Mboya/Kibaki/Njonjo/Njoroge Muigai/Towett/Ngei etc, Moi with MDVD, Melon, Rao, Uhuru, Kibaki with Melon, Rao, Mukhisa, Ngilu, Musikari Kombo etc).