The world sees through mwafrika scum elite bulshiet -Doanh Chau

[gout]

• Tweet

WHY AFRICA WAITS WHILE ASIA BUILDS: A Hard Look at Kenya

I met with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and President William Ruto in Nairobi. They spoke with energy about Kenya’s future— investment, infrastructure, public housing. But behind the polished language was a painful truth: there is no serious execution culture.

Kenya’s real problem is not a lack of money or talent. It’s the absence of long-term vision and the dominance of short-term gain. Leaders talk big, but systems don’t move. They wait for outsiders to bring business, rather than build an environment for it.

The biggest indicator? Electricity.

Vietnam: 100 million people, over 70 GW of power.

Kenya: 50 million people, only 4 GW.

This is not a side issue—it’s the foundation of economic development. No investor will build a factory where the lights flicker every day. Vietnam knew this. It built power generation before free trade zones, and now it’s a global export hub.

In Kenya, basic energy supply is unstable. And yet, the government built a fancy expressway from Nairobi to Mombasa—without an export industry to support it. Meanwhile, millions live in slums and huts, with no access to reliable utilities.

Tourism is another missed opportunity. Safari bookings require 90-minute check-ins at park gates—even with reservations. After 9:00 PM, everything closes. There’s nothing for visitors to experience or spend on beyond a Masai market that’s essentially a souvenir stand.

President Ruto wants to build public housing, but investors are scared off by petty corruption, and legal instability. There are no credible incentives, no serious risk guarantees. In short, no real initiative to make it happen.

Compare this to Vietnam or Singapore:

. Leaders are up at 5 a.m. working on execution, not speeches.

. Power supply is constant.

. Policies are consistent and data-driven.

. Incentives align with performance.

Africa doesn’t lack potential—it lacks a mindset shift.

Leadership must stop performing for the next donor visit or summit. It must build systems that attract local and global investment, reward builders, and guarantee follow-through.

The global window is closing. Asia isn’t waiting. If Kenya and much of Africa want a real economic future, they must turn off the microphone—and turn on the power.

Doanh Chau

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/doanhchau_why-africa-waits-while-asia-builds-a-hard-activity-7318684608001200129-Dp-t?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAOBmm4BNAGfrdi4xurkFaW_LqyfXoGe7YY

[RV Kirgit]

In Kenya, we are middle income.

We do not need to do dirty work to develop. We have chosen to develop using service industry and leapfrog to first world.

That's why we are investing in green energy (solar panels and wind) and carbon credits.

We are developing at breakneck speed unlike our dwarf neighbors who remain LDC!

[hk]

The absurdity of pursuing universal electricity connections instead of lowering the cost and reliability. Kenya needs serious cheap baseload electricity, not the intermittent wind and solar power. Kengen should not be issuing dividends, all that capital needs to be invested in production. Kenya pipeline should be privatized and capital raised used to pipe natural gas from TZ to power natural gas fired powerplants.
Our small beverage factory is being forced to use captive power just to survive while importing cans from china, which could be produced in kenya if we had cheap electricity. Its the reason why its cheaper to import than produce locally.

[RV Pundit]

I disagree; electricity is right for everyone; and it use is not for manufacturing; kids using it to study, parent to watch TV and all is equally important; this also give us broad based diversified growth.
Ethiopa sell power at 6shs, TZ 10-12; UG at 17; Kenya 26; we are growing as fast as they are -except for cooking Ethiopia figures.

Once we nail access to 95% - universal;
We can look at cost.

We dont have taxes to build cheap power so we will likely use private money - which comes at 30% ROI; discounted return of investment;Good thing you're free do to captive power;


GoK should focus on universal access to piped water, electricity and paved roads - at whatever cost- then whoever want it so cheap - you're free to build your own, dig a borehole and etc

To say you have more right to cheap electricity - than my village in kuresoi who dont have electricity is plain BS.We want it for our hospitals, shops, etc to operate better and long - we want it to work in our homes - so we can have chaff cutters and other farm implements - we want it to use to warm our chicken; young kids can use it to run their laptops; generate money; etc.

If you want to compete internationally - go to EPZ or Special economic zone - electricity is 10shs per unit, taxes low and etc - these kenya gov should construct in every county for those - and vet for export oriented.

The absurdity of pursuing universal electricity connections instead of lowering the cost and reliability. Kenya needs serious cheap baseload electricity, not the intermittent wind and solar power. Kengen should not be issuing dividends, all that capital needs to be invested in production. Kenya pipeline should be privatized and capital raised used to pipe natural gas from TZ to power natural gas fired powerplants.
Our small beverage factory is being forced to use captive power just to survive while importing cans from china, which could be produced in kenya if we had cheap electricity. Its the reason why its cheaper to import than produce locally.

[RV Pundit]

Sound sarcastic but it been working model so far;
In last two decades;
We have grown economy from 15b to now 130B.
That is almost 10 times bigger.
Another decade we can turn 130 to 300-400B economy
It services run - telcom/mpesa/ict - doing it magic to improve productivity & efficiency.
Manufacturing is overrated.
Asians will always beat us in cost and labour - it beating everyone now.

After China is now - you have Veitnam, Bangladesh, Philiphine, Indonesia, India and even Pakistani - all teeming with millions of people - ready to work manufacturing jobs.

It hopeless for now.

We should focus on Industries without Smokestack - dairy, coffee, tea, horticulture, avacados, oil crops, fruits, ict, tourisms.

These are industries we can export and we can also grow value chain - maybe not as good as manufacturing - but very close.

In Kenya, we are middle income.

We do not need to do dirty work to develop. We have chosen to develop using service industry and leapfrog to first world.

That's why we are investing in green energy (solar panels and wind) and carbon credits.

We are developing at breakneck speed unlike our dwarf neighbors who remain LDC!

[gout]

It's time to cancel those IPPs and import power from Ethiopia, which is selling to us at 0.065/Kwh even after the kickbacks.

Turn off the thermal generators and improve the transmission network.

[RV Pundit]

YOU CANNOT cancel IPPS when gov is inviting PPPS for roads and water and etc.
IPPS we may not like them - but they have spend I think 8B dollars.
We dont have debt from energy sector - apart from KPLC.
This 8B dollars definitely need 20-30% ROI - annually - otherwise these guys would just invest in treasury bonds.
The good thing as plant age - they become cheaper and cheaper.
Kengen has lowest cost because some of plant were built in 80s and 90s - we have paid all loans for it.
Some IPPS too.
And some IPPS after 20-30yrs revert for free to public.

Ethiopia is good but energy dependences is not wise.

What do we need - more IPPS.

Our power is expensive - but for 5m or so household without it - they are using more expensive options like diesel generators or kerosine - unit cost can be as high as 40-100;

I think one litre diesel generate 1khw

It's time to cancel those IPPs and import power from Ethiopia, which is selling to us at 0.065/Kwh even after the kickbacks.

Turn off the thermal generators and improve the transmission network.

[gout]

It is madness to say you cannot pull it off and continue with new ones. Take GDC which has been crippled in Kenya is now working in Ethiopia.

You say we don't depend on Ethiopia, but depend on IPPs forever—a warped approach. If we say our manufacturing is dead and we depend on China, why not this cheaper electricity?

YOU CANNOT cancel IPPS when gov is inviting PPPS for roads and water and etc.
IPPS we may not like them - but they have spend I think 8B dollars.
We dont have debt from energy sector - apart from KPLC.
This 8B dollars definitely need 20-30% ROI - annually - otherwise these guys would just invest in treasury bonds.
The good thing as plant age - they become cheaper and cheaper.
Kengen has lowest cost because some of plant were built in 80s and 90s - we have paid all loans for it.
Some IPPS too.
And some IPPS after 20-30yrs revert for free to public.

Ethiopia is good but energy dependences is not wise.

What do we need - more IPPS.

Our power is expensive - but for 5m or so household without it - they are using more expensive options like diesel generators or kerosine - unit cost can be as high as 40-100;

I think one litre diesel generate 1khw

It's time to cancel those IPPs and import power from Ethiopia, which is selling to us at 0.065/Kwh even after the kickbacks.

Turn off the thermal generators and improve the transmission network.

[RV Pundit]

Sounds like you dont understand how real world works.
You need money to generate and distribute electricity.
That money can either come from public sector( taxes or borrowing) or private sector PPP (IPPs)
Countries who want to keep power cheap go public sector route.
Ethiopia & TZ & Pre-Kengen days - it normally taxes+borrowing- you pay say 8% on loan.
Therefore that power is going to cheap.
Gov allocate money for hydro dams etc.

Private sector will not take 8% to build, run and operate a power plant - that they can lend you at 8% via treasury bond.
To take all that risk - they ask for upto 30%.
Turkana Wind - 700M dollars invested - the investors want to see 30%! - otherwise they can easily buy treasury bond and get 10%.

So who will pay that 30% annually - Power Consumers - ideallly for period of say 15-20yrs - then Kengen takes over and it become public project.

Now does kenya have fiscal space for investing public money in power projects.

The answer is obviously NO.

1,000MW will need 2B dollars. That is 260B.

IPPS can easily do this - and we spend zero - but instead of paying 15shs like Tanzania - we willpay 25 shs per unit.

Smart way to tax the real users of the electricity - instead of taxing some of us without electricity in our homes huko Kuresoi south

It is madness to say you cannot pull it off and continue with new ones. Take GDC which has been crippled in Kenya is now working in Ethiopia.

You say we don't depend on Ethiopia, but depend on IPPs forever—a warped approach. If we say our manufacturing is dead and we depend on China, why not this cheaper electricity?

[gout]

Competitive advantage is easy peasy. If we import everything from China, Japan, why not electricity from Ethiopia?

Why keep protecting shadowy IPPs? If it is too expensive to hell with it just like oil refinery or car manufacturing.

Cheap electricity will enable to focus and max on the service industries across Kenya.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Competitive advantage is easy peasy. If we import everything from China, Japan, why not electricity from Ethiopia?

Why keep protecting shadowy IPPs? If it is too expensive to hell with it just like oil refinery or car manufacturing.

Cheap electricity will enable to focus and max on the service industries across Kenya.

How can Kenya import electricity from Ethiopia when 55% of Ethiopians have access to Electricity while Kenya is 76% covered by electricity? Kenya problem is that it is expensive that is why people are NOT connected. If they need connection/have money, most Kenyans can get electricity. Ethiopia can only supply 56% to Ethiopia meaning not enough power generation to be exported. If the government can cut those taxes, levies, etc., it may be expensive. I pay about 47K in the village but we have egg incubators running 24/7. Can only imagine what factories are paying. Kenya need to lower energy costs seriously!

In 2022, the share of the population with access to electricity in Kenya remained nearly unchanged at around 76 percent. With a decline of 0.5 percentage points (-0.65 percent), there is no significant change to 2021.
Access to electricity refers to the share of the population having the possibility to access electricity

In 2023, about 55.4% of the population in Ethiopia had access to electricity. The country has a National Electrification Program aiming for 100% access by 2025, using both on-grid and off-grid solutions. While urban areas have a high electrification rate, rural areas continue to face challenge

Ethiopia electricity access for 2022 was 55.00%, a 0.8% increase from 2021. Ethiopia electricity access for 2021 was 54.20%, a 3.1% increase from 2020. Ethiopia electricity access for 2020 was 51.10%, a 3.1% increase from 2019. Ethiopia electricity access for 2019 was 48.00%, a 3.2% increase from 201

[gout]

What sort of economics is that? Poor people sell cows, goats, sheep and eggs to their neighbours - they do not keep them to eat.

We sell coffee, flowers, gold, we do not consume buana.

We have imported power from Uganda since colonial times, yet Uganda has 50% urban and less than 10% rural access.

It is a basic demand-and-supply economic rule. Thus, we need to invest more in the transmission network, and to hell with these IPP economic terrorism.   

[RV Pundit]

Transmission network will cost some serious money too.
Yes import from Ethiopia and Uganda will help us in short term - but remember they could also start consuming it.

End of the day - there is only way way out poverty - MONEY - CAPITAL - SAVINGs - PENSIONS.

And trick is to reduce number of kids - we ramp up savings and pensions - for example NSSF has now added 200B after we moved it 6%- this money we can use to build transmission, roads, railway.

If NSSF and other long term savings were go 10% of GDP - we start moving from poverty.

For power sector - it expensive yes but we have 10M customers now - in country with 12-13m households - add 2 milion business/schools/premise =15m.

We still have 5M people to go - then we can all start attacking electricity cost - when all of us are talking the same language.

What sort of economics is that? Poor people sell cows, goats, sheep and eggs to their neighbours - they do not keep them to eat.

We sell coffee, flowers, gold, we do not consume buana.

We have imported power from Uganda since colonial times, yet Uganda has 50% urban and less than 10% rural access.

It is a basic demand-and-supply economic rule. Thus, we need to invest more in the transmission network, and to hell with these IPP economic terrorism.   

[gout]

Short term, why? Uganda/Ethiopia's potential is crazy. Even DRC? TZ. Mwafrika tender-driven corruption economics of convenience has no sensible justification. Just creating real problems while pretending to solve imaginary problems.

In 2023, Top importers of Electrical energy are European Union ($11,199,578.80K , 88,814,200 1000 KW/H), Germany ($7,250,814.06K, 71,932,100 1000 KW/H), Italy ($7,230,797.76K , 57,449,100 1000 KW/H), Switzerland ($4,118,994.22K, 34,561,600 1000 KW/H), United Kingdom ($3,918,619.74K , 33,120,600 1000 KW/H).

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/271600#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20Top%20importers%20of%20Electrical%20energy,United%20Kingdom%20($3%2C918%2C619.74K%20%2C%2033%2C120%2C600%201000%20KW/H).

Most of the power from France flowed to Great Britain (11.7TWh), with Italy (9.4TWh), Germany (8.8TWh) and Switzerland (7.4TWh) also importing significant quantities from France. Sweden remained the second highest net exporter of power in first half of 2024, sending 15.3TWh to other countries. Netherlands overtook Norway to become the third highest net exporter (8.8TWh), while the latter had net outflows of 7.4TWh.

https://montel.energy/resources/blog/france-tops-europes-power-export-league-of-nations#:~:text=France%20maintained%20its%20position%20as,second%20half%20of%20last%20year.

In 2021, Top exporters of Electrical energy are European Union ($9,494,944.51K , 81,183,400 1000 KW/H), Germany ($8,328,658.49K , 70,596,800 1000 KW/H), France ($7,097,716.44K , 67,518,000 1000 KW/H), Switzerland ($3,896,972.55K , 32,734,200 1000 KW/H), Spain ($3,109,548.29K , 22,330,500 1000 KW/H)

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2021/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/product/271600#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20Top%20exporters%20of,22%2C330%2C500%201000%20KW/H).

[RV Pundit]

Yes eventually once we get all these power pools connected; we will be better;
But it will cost money to build these power plants;
And money we dont have.

Trump has definitely killed Obama Power Africa.

Ethiopia has stopped investing in dams - that 5000mw of their - and Uganda 1500mw is not  enough for their needs in a decade or so - so we have to keep investing through IPPS.

There is NO way to significantly reduce electricity except for guys to do more captive power esp solar to reduce electricity intake

Short term, why? Uganda/Ethiopia's potential is crazy. Even DRC? TZ. Mwafrika tender-driven corruption economics of convenience has no sensible justification. Just creating real problems while pretending to solve imaginary problems.

In 2023, Top importers of Electrical energy are European Union ($11,199,578.80K , 88,814,200 1000 KW/H), Germany ($7,250,814.06K, 71,932,100 1000 KW/H), Italy ($7,230,797.76K , 57,449,100 1000 KW/H), Switzerland ($4,118,994.22K, 34,561,600 1000 KW/H), United Kingdom ($3,918,619.74K , 33,120,600 1000 KW/H).

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/271600#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20Top%20importers%20of%20Electrical%20energy,United%20Kingdom%20($3%2C918%2C619.74K%20%2C%2033%2C120%2C600%201000%20KW/H).

Most of the power from France flowed to Great Britain (11.7TWh), with Italy (9.4TWh), Germany (8.8TWh) and Switzerland (7.4TWh) also importing significant quantities from France. Sweden remained the second highest net exporter of power in first half of 2024, sending 15.3TWh to other countries. Netherlands overtook Norway to become the third highest net exporter (8.8TWh), while the latter had net outflows of 7.4TWh.

https://montel.energy/resources/blog/france-tops-europes-power-export-league-of-nations#:~:text=France%20maintained%20its%20position%20as,second%20half%20of%20last%20year.

In 2021, Top exporters of Electrical energy are European Union ($9,494,944.51K , 81,183,400 1000 KW/H), Germany ($8,328,658.49K , 70,596,800 1000 KW/H), France ($7,097,716.44K , 67,518,000 1000 KW/H), Switzerland ($3,896,972.55K , 32,734,200 1000 KW/H), Spain ($3,109,548.29K , 22,330,500 1000 KW/H)

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2021/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/product/271600#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20Top%20exporters%20of,22%2C330%2C500%201000%20KW/H).

[hk]

I disagree; electricity is right for everyone; and it use is not for manufacturing; kids using it to study, parent to watch TV and all is equally important; this also give us broad based diversified growth.
Ethiopa sell power at 6shs, TZ 10-12; UG at 17; Kenya 26; we are growing as fast as they are -except for cooking Ethiopia figures.

Once we nail access to 95% - universal;
We can look at cost.

We dont have taxes to build cheap power so we will likely use private money - which comes at 30% ROI; discounted return of investment;Good thing you're free do to captive power;


GoK should focus on universal access to piped water, electricity and paved roads - at whatever cost- then whoever want it so cheap - you're free to build your own, dig a borehole and etc

To say you have more right to cheap electricity - than my village in kuresoi who dont have electricity is plain BS.We want it for our hospitals, shops, etc to operate better and long - we want it to work in our homes - so we can have chaff cutters and other farm implements - we want it to use to warm our chicken; young kids can use it to run their laptops; generate money; etc.

If you want to compete internationally - go to EPZ or Special economic zone - electricity is 10shs per unit, taxes low and etc - these kenya gov should construct in every county for those - and vet for export oriented.

The absurdity of pursuing universal electricity connections instead of lowering the cost and reliability. Kenya needs serious cheap baseload electricity, not the intermittent wind and solar power. Kengen should not be issuing dividends, all that capital needs to be invested in production. Kenya pipeline should be privatized and capital raised used to pipe natural gas from TZ to power natural gas fired powerplants.
Our small beverage factory is being forced to use captive power just to survive while importing cans from china, which could be produced in kenya if we had cheap electricity. Its the reason why its cheaper to import than produce locally.

Does the villagers in kuresoi also have a right to subsidized electricity? Manufacturing doesn't have a more right to cheaper power anymore than other sectors or poor having rights to subsidized electricity. Creating a virtuous cycle is what's important, i.e starting off with cheap power that's  affordable reliable, this makes cheap to connect and usage, eventually getting to universal connection of cheap affordable electricity. Currently we have more than 1m idle connections https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/kenya-power-says-1m-customers-on-prepaid-meters-are-not-paying-2144130
EPZ is for export what about local market SEZ. There's no country in the world that  EPZ or SEZ amount to more than 10% of overall manufacturing sector.  There shouldn't be designated areas (other than county planning restrictions) for factories, someone in lodwar can setup a factory just as an investor in dongo kunde.
Not all factories can be in EPZ or SEZ , there are other factors to consider, raw materials, market, logistics, workforce etc,. Would you expect KBL or Kevian to move to SEZ? Bottomline Kenya should have started with cheap power, which should have driven connections and higher usage. The only solution now is for kengen or IPP to produce cheap power knocking off the expensive and intermittent power.
Alternatively allow kengen to sell power directly to consumers and for sure they'd pick off the heavy industrial users. 

[RV Pundit]

Cheaper power = Tax-financed.
Yet you want public financed cheap power given to manufacturing sector?
If we are all paying taxes - we all deserve power - at same price if possible.
So access triumphs cost.
Besides power normally account for 5-10% of manufacturing cost- LABOUR is the king.
We should be asking gov to remove min labour requirement - and allow you to hire desperate burundians working for 300shs per day.
The moment your power needs exceed 10% - invest in captive power.

For now we have big problem - of 30% of kenyans who do not have any electricity - and pay the highest - 40-100 per KHW from alternative - plus health cost of all the smokes and fumes.

Does the villagers in kuresoi also have a right to subsidized electricity? Manufacturing doesn't have a more right to cheaper power anymore than other sectors or poor having rights to subsidized electricity. Creating a virtuous cycle is what's important, i.e starting off with cheap power that's  affordable reliable, this makes cheap to connect and usage, eventually getting to universal connection of cheap affordable electricity. Currently we have more than 1m idle connections https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/kenya-power-says-1m-customers-on-prepaid-meters-are-not-paying-2144130
EPZ is for export what about local market SEZ. There's no country in the world that  EPZ or SEZ amount to more than 10% of overall manufacturing sector.  There shouldn't be designated areas (other than county planning restrictions) for factories, someone in lodwar can setup a factory just as an investor in dongo kunde.
Not all factories can be in EPZ or SEZ , there are other factors to consider, raw materials, market, logistics, workforce etc,. Would you expect KBL or Kevian to move to SEZ? Bottomline Kenya should have started with cheap power, which should have driven connections and higher usage. The only solution now is for kengen or IPP to produce cheap power knocking off the expensive and intermittent power.
Alternatively allow kengen to sell power directly to consumers and for sure they'd pick off the heavy industrial users.