All ODM Officials are talkig ill of Ruto Raila Marriage -AUC loss looming ?

[Nowayhaha]

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From Arati to Sifuna , Orengo etc
All are on the negative rant , like a choreography reading from one script .
It seems Adamz oloo has written the script and its apparent they have infor Raila is losing AUC

[patel]

Genz through online activism have done a lot of damage to Kenya reputation. Raila is just collateral damage. The conman thought he was too smart but Genz have shown him hajui. With all abduction talk and Mungiki leader attacking mama taifa, pastor Dorcas it's a matter of time before tourism grinds to a halt.

[RV Pundit]

Continue consoling yourself but in about a month Raila will win. The Djibouti candidate is about to throw in the towel. Beating Ruto sio rahisi.

[Nefertiti]

It's a real split - pro vs anti-Ruto factions

[Nefertiti]

Sakaja ni mtoto wa jirani

[RV Pundit]

Once Raila is gone to Addis Ababa..Ruto will take over odm n kick out rebels. The rebels are either old dead woods like orengo or young upstarts like Babu. They are going to be orphaned without Baba. Do they join Gachagua murima murima nonsense... maybe those in Nairobi. The rest how do you explain to people that you're supporting someone whose is thinking about murima only

[Fairandbalanced]

Delusions, Ruto’s problem is not Kikuyus, it’s the youth and anybody with common sense.

[Nefertiti]

Once Raila is gone to Addis Ababa..Ruto will take over odm n kick out rebels. The rebels are either old dead woods like orengo or young upstarts like Babu. They are going to be orphaned without Baba. Do they join Gachagua murima murima nonsense... maybe those in Nairobi. The rest how do you explain to people that you're supporting someone whose is thinking about murima only

They are claiming to front ODM candidate nothing to do with Riggy. You are underestimating anti-Ruto faction which is bigger than pro-Ruto. Nyong'o, Arati, Osotsi, Sifuna, Bosire - those are top NEC echelon.

But worse is the anti-Ruto have better ground game than pro-Ruto. Wanga cannot even sway Luo who might even rebel against Raila. People like Arati will sway Gusii. Which serious ODM Luhya backs Ruto?

[Nefertiti]

Pundit that Ruto anti-Gema strategy only probably works if they are running. For now they seem more keen to dethrone Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

You're wasting time enumerating little fools who will be orphaned.
Watch big boys of Luo - Raila has appointed Wanga as heir - Opiyo & Mbadi-Junet, Joho and Oparanya - that is IT. Those are real RAILA MEN - maybe old men of Orengo-Nyongo - can have a say - but money Mbadi, Opiyo, Joho and Oparanya plus Junet will be making - they will make sure Ruto gets whatever he wants.

These tu-small boys when Raila is sworn will be kicked out by Wanga & team as soon as Raila plane lands in Adis Ababa.
Ruto will ask for their heads.

Wanga is interested in becoming DPORK - the Odinga wants her.

When it comes to Coast - Joho & kavirondo of Mombasa- will complete the Kwale( Mvurya-Fatuma) & Girima/Kilifi- Kingi-Jumwa axis - Mungaro should be aligned now- Lamu & Tana river.

Luhyaland - Oparanya & Khawale - will complement MaDVD & Weta - Busia Iteso & Luo like Samia hiyo ni ODM damu- hiyo ni clean sweep.  Natembeya and Eugene sio watu serious - plus sijui mafala gani huko. Ford-K/UDA will even impeach him shortly

NEP - clean sweep.

MATUSA - clean sweep.

Mt Kenya yote wakwende wapende wasipende - even at 25% plus Gusii yote plus Kalonzo - hapana tosha mboga!!

Ruto cant be beaten by losers.

They are claiming to front ODM candidate nothing to do with Riggy. You are underestimating anti-Ruto faction which is bigger than pro-Ruto. Nyong'o, Arati, Osotsi, Sifuna, Bosire - those are top NEC echelon.

But worse is the anti-Ruto have better ground game than pro-Ruto. Wanga cannot even sway Luo who might even rebel against Raila. People like Arati will sway Gusii. Which serious ODM Luhya backs Ruto?

[RV Pundit]

Any candidate backed by GEMA will be seen as GEMA proxy by Non-GEMA.
Ruto suffered part of that Anti-GEMA hatred the last 15yrs.
Now he has shed that hatred.
As he sheds GEMA - he is gaining Non-GEMA love

Pundit that Ruto anti-Gema strategy only probably works if they are running. For now they seem more keen to dethrone Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

If I use the Census of 2019.
Pro-Ruto will sweep at 60% - the rest of kenya
Anti-Ruto/Pro-GEMA will be at 38% - Entire Kikuyu, Meru, Embus, Kambas, Gusii
GEN Z (kenyans so stated will be at 3%.

In short has lots of buffer - before you factor rigging.


Table S2 - Proportional sampling of ethnic groups with respect to 2019 census data                                  
                  Anti Ruto/Pro-GEMA   Pro Ruto/Anti-GEMA   Gen Z   Anti Ruto   Pro Ruto   Gen Z
Ethnic group (2019 Census)   2019 census (N)   %census      KU group ID   Language                  
Kikuyu   8,148,668   17.31      Kikuyu   Bantu   1   0   0   17.31277308   0   0
Luhya    6,823,842   14.50      Luhya   Bantu   0   1   0   0   14.49802938   0
Kalenjin    6,358,113   13.51      Kalenjin   Southern-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   13.50853508   0
Luo    5,066,966   10.77      Luo   Western-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   10.76534626   0
Kamba    4,663,910   9.91      Kamba   Bantu   1   0   0   9.909007887   0   0
Kenyan Somali    2,780,502   5.91      Somali   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   5.907493122   0
Kisii    2,703,235   5.74      Kisii   Bantu   1   0   0   5.743330582   0   0
Meru    1,975,869   4.20      Meru   Bantu   1   0   0   4.197958688   0   0
Maasai    1,189,522   2.53      Maasai   Eastern-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   2.527274943   0
Turkana    1,016,174   2.16      Turkana   Eastern-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   2.158977377   0
Giriama    1,007,653   2.14      Giriama   Bantu   0   1   0   0   2.140873543   0
Duruma    555,135   1.18      Duruma   Bantu   0   1   0   0   1.179447522   0
Teso    417,670   0.89      Teso   Eastern-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   0.887387476   0
Digo/Wafundi/Wasakwa    409,595   0.87      Digo   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.870231219   0
Embu    404,801   0.86      Embu   Bantu   1   1   0   0.86004582   0.86004582   0
Taita    344,415   0.73      Taita   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.731748887   0
Samburu    333,471   0.71      Samburu   Eastern-Nilotic   0   1   0   0   0.708497113   0
Kuria    313,854   0.67      Kuria   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.666818562   0
Borana    276,236   0.59      Borana   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.586894838   0
Chonyi    198,653   0.42      Chonyi   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.42206092   0
Orma    158,993   0.34      Oromo   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.337798733   0
Rabai    125,707   0.27      Rabai   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.267078836   0
Pokomo    112,075   0.24      Pokomo   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.2381161   0
Rendile    96,313   0.20      Rendille   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.204627936   0
Kauma    71,061   0.15      Kauma   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.150977186   0
Kenyan Arabs    59,021   0.13      Afro-Arab   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.125396835   0
Swahili    56,074   0.12      Swahili   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.119135598   0
Burji    36,938   0.08      Burji   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.078478987   0
Walwana/Malakote    21,774   0.05      Wailwana   Cushitic   0   1   0   0   0.046261342   0
Stateless (Galjeel, Shona,Wapemba, Pare E.T.C)    6,272   0.01      Pare   Bantu   0   1   0   0   0.013325578   0
Unsampled groups   1,334,864   2.84            0   0   1   0   0   2.84
   47,067,376                        38.02311605   60.00085919   2.84

[gout]

If I was the Eritrea guy I would take the cheque.

Can baba transform into a despot lap dog and accept to be ignored na kuzurura Africa is the question.

[gout]

Jaluo very happy with power helicopters.