Tramp 2.0 will be very messy.
He will definitely bomb Mexico. use drugs as a pretext.
Maybe a recession and high unemployment by May, after people stop buying due to extreme inflation.
I think it will be empty bluster, but I will be watching S$P 500 daily. It hits under 5500; maybe time to unload and keep cash or resume trading short and long positions depending on which industry is getting hammered or getting better prospects. I believe in core US policies and institutions to hold even in murky waters. The moment people's wealth and portfolios start to take a hit, Trump will get the message. I see Texas has already told Trump to slow his roll on immigration. The United States thrives with 30 million underpaid immigrants in the shadows, especially in healthcare, agriculture, construction, transportation, etc. I see the Mexican President has said tariffs will be increased on both sides incrementally. Trump pushes 25%, Mexico retaliates with 25%, and 100% is met with 100%
Wall Street whales will all be watching if it retreads to the 5000 zone because it will be brutal. Trump is also an investor, and I am sure he will not cause the economy to hurt the stock market. If everything stays constant, by the end of 4 years, S$P may crest at 8000+, which is a normal insane lane we've been since Biden came in. Investors are truly grateful to Biden Harris admin! 3800-6000+ is insane growth! If Trump can take it $8000, it will be great, but if he stalls it or take to under 5000, America will be in trouble!
Even the market know his empty threats!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-dow-notch-fresh-records-as-wall-street-shrugs-off-trumps-tariff-threat-190707130.html