This picture here and the humiliation of Gachagua family has central people

[KenyanPlato]

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Angry. Ruto has gone from doyen to the most hated politician in Central in a matter of weeks. He can't salvage his image. People now have realized how unhinged he is.

[Fairandbalanced]

He thinks that he is Moi, he is going to kill Kenyans, humiliate, devide etc and get away with it. People forgave Moi because Kibaki was a gentleman and decided to move the country forward otherwise Kenyans were baying for his blood. Ruto will get a completely different treatment, it’s going to be brutal and ugly, it’s just a matter of time.

[RV Pundit]

Central ni 15% of kenyan. Ruto is now celebrated in luo nyanza n other odm zones. Kenya ni kubwa. Time for central to enjoy opposition politics for few decades

[sema]

Gachugua's sons are weird to me. I was watching them and one looked so scared that I thought He'd pass out and then the other started crying and his mother had to go and console him (& I think this is what made her start crying -- seeing her son)

Politicians in Africa have to start teaching their children how to becomes gangsta's just like them because in Africa, you just never know what will happen.

The other thing I hope gachagua has done is move his money out of the country. They should also teach their kids how to manage their stolen money and hide it.

If I were gachagua's son's the first year my father was in office, I'd be looking to move the loot and also looking for a house in a place like cape town or the cayman island or seychelles (just in case)

[Nowayhaha]

No 1 Ruto has not replaced Raila and No 2 a united GEMA is a force to reckon .
Ruto will be No 3 come 2027

Central ni 15% of kenyan. Ruto is now celebrated in luo nyanza n other odm zones. Kenya ni kubwa. Time for central to enjoy opposition politics for few decades

[RV Pundit]

No 1 Ruto is the president.
No 2 There is no Kikuyu as President or Deputy as we speak. Not even no 3 like maDVD. Kiburi yenu kwisha.
No 3  2027 kila mtu will sort himself. Kenya ni kubwa. Even Raila has been scoring 46% without a single mt kenya vote sembuze Ruto.

No 1 Ruto has not replaced Raila and No 2 a united GEMA is a force to reckon .
Ruto will be No 3 come 2027

Central ni 15% of kenyan. Ruto is now celebrated in luo nyanza n other odm zones. Kenya ni kubwa. Time for central to enjoy opposition politics for few decades

[RV Pundit]

No 1 - never involve your kids in corrupt deals - sasa hawa they have a date with EACC and DCIs - because they handle lot of KEMSA and Hotel deals.

Gachugua's sons are weird to me. I was watching them and one looked so scared that I thought He'd pass out and then the other started crying and his mother had to go and console him (& I think this is what made her start crying -- seeing her son)

Politicians in Africa have to start teaching their children how to becomes gangsta's just like them because in Africa, you just never know what will happen.

The other thing I hope gachagua has done is move his money out of the country. They should also teach their kids how to manage their stolen money and hide it.

If I were gachagua's son's the first year my father was in office, I'd be looking to move the loot and also looking for a house in a place like cape town or the cayman island or seychelles (just in case)

[Nowayhaha]

Same situation as 2017-2022 when Uhuru betrayed Ruto . Eventually Ruto became the President .
Unlike Uhuru who had nothing to lose as he was in second term . Ruto will lose Presidency .
Ruto under performed in non Gema areas in comparison to Kibaki and Uhuru . Reason he will be No 3 come 2027 .
Ruto base in some parts of Rift Valley you cant compare him to Raila who has a solid base since 2007 .
Matter of fact we are back to 2002-2003 Ruto has put Kalenjins in a very bad area they are being hated for no reason apart from Ruto .
Remember when you said you went through a hard time when Moi was being blamed for Kenyan woos .

No 1 Ruto is the president.
No 2 There is no Kikuyu as President or Deputy as we speak. Not even no 3 like maDVD. Kiburi yenu kwisha.
No 3  2027 kila mtu will sort himself. Kenya ni kubwa. Even Raila has been scoring 46% without a single mt kenya vote sembuze Ruto.

No 1 Ruto has not replaced Raila and No 2 a united GEMA is a force to reckon .
Ruto will be No 3 come 2027

Central ni 15% of kenyan. Ruto is now celebrated in luo nyanza n other odm zones. Kenya ni kubwa. Time for central to enjoy opposition politics for few decades

[RV Pundit]

Raila has been betrayed so many times and Luos since 1960s - your God of Vengeance against betrayers - seem to have betrayed them too.

Jaramogi was fired in 1966 - two years like Gachagua - as VP.

Listen carefully.

There is only one position for PORK, DPORK, PM and 21 cabinet - throw in Speakers.

Big Boys will look at those positions and decide.

Raila wont run to be No 2 or No 3. People will run to be NO 1.

If Raila wont be No 1 - and Ruto wont be No 1 - why will they both run?

It easy for them to agree - to merge - like they have done.

Dont think Mt kenya will have monopoly of thinking, planning, tactics and all that.

Think 1990s and prepare for shafting.

Same situation as 2017-2022 when Uhuru betrayed Ruto . Eventually Ruto became the President .
Unlike Uhuru who had nothing to lose as he was in second term . Ruto will lose Presidency .
Ruto under performed in non Gema areas in comparison to Kibaki and Uhuru . Reason he will be No 3 come 2027 .
Ruto base in some parts of Rift Valley you cant compare him to Raila who has a solid base since 2007 .
Matter of fact we are back to 2002-2003 Ruto has put Kalenjins in a very bad area they are being hated for no reason apart from Ruto .
Remember when you said you went through a hard time when Moi was being blamed for Kenyan woos .

No 1 Ruto is the president.
No 2 There is no Kikuyu as President or Deputy as we speak. Not even no 3 like maDVD. Kiburi yenu kwisha.
No 3  2027 kila mtu will sort himself. Kenya ni kubwa. Even Raila has been scoring 46% without a single mt kenya vote sembuze Ruto.

No 1 Ruto has not replaced Raila and No 2 a united GEMA is a force to reckon .
Ruto will be No 3 come 2027

Central ni 15% of kenyan. Ruto is now celebrated in luo nyanza n other odm zones. Kenya ni kubwa. Time for central to enjoy opposition politics for few decades

[Nefertiti]

Pundit you need to account for the longshot Nowayhaha scenario of Ruto emerging as No 3 behind Raila and Kalonzo. Who will he endorse? Will he be Prime CS 😐

You seem to have downgraded GEMA to 15%? but they are still 25% by census and 30% by turnout. Your own math. Easily puts Kalonzo ahead of Ruto if his katikati scheme works out.

[RV Pundit]

Kikuyu ndio 15% population wise in 2027 - their advantage (of more adults) is not permanent.
Gema 25% vote wise - as per my last MOAS - drop from 27-28% in 2013.
Do another drop in 2027 - 23% hapo - population is dropping to 21% hapo.
Last Census despite Uhuru games - Kikuyus were 17%; Merus 4%; Rest 1%. Hiyo ni 22%.

Ruto minus Mt kenya completely is let say 25% as of 2022.
You want to say Ruto as incumbent won't make headways in small tribes (matusa+somali+coast+iteso+luhyas).

If Raila is running - he will be competing with Ruto for Non-GEMA vote.

Gema+Kalonzo will start at 30% - and then REAAAAAAAAAALY struggle outside there because they dont have 1) Power & incumbency like 2007 or last 2 decades- that Ruto takes over-  and 2) Mt kenya is albastrosss nationally - it will be like 1990s - Kibaki got 30% in 1997 with united Kikuyus & half - upper Meru/Embu (lower part went KANU like it appearing with Kindiki) - and was ZERO elsewhere - Gusii kidogo alibreathe.

There are many scenarios.
1) Assume Ruto run with MADVD or Kindiki (PM/DPM) - Kalenjin+Luhya front - supported by small tribes.
2) Assume Raila runs for its sake - without Mt kenya - as ODM.
3) Assume Kalonzo run backed by GEMA - or alone.
4) Assume GEMA have their own candidate in Muhoho with Matiangi. RiggyG i dont see how he surives.
5) Assume opposition led by Bitter GEMA back Raila

Now which scenarios are really really plausible.
1) Raila goes to AU - and back Ruto western alliance - SHoe IN = 55-60%
2) Mt Kenya runs alone or with Kalonzo - 30% base - then struggle to 35-40% - MAX.

I dont see
1) Kikuyus backing Raila or Ruto - unless Uhuru tells them to listen to him (probable) and
2) I dont see Raila running unless Mt kenya backed him up.
3) I dont see how RiggyG survive this - has no skills to build party, is impeached, and will soon struggle.

And finally Ruto has big play - because DPORK for 5yrs with 2032 on sight - can entice even Kalonzo.

Smart folks will put money on Ruto 5yrs - amalize - then 2032 they take over.

GEMA are no longer smart. Hasira took over their brains.

For now we wait for Raila to go to AU - and as soon as he in AU - Ruto will take over ODM - Ruto wont waste time to sleep with ODM.

GEMA/Mt kenya will continue to be replaced in GOV by NEW ODM Members - until by 2027 - even Raila himself will be told to stick the hell in Adis Ababa - and not come take them forest - when they are in GOV.

If GEMA are saying we are done with Ruto - Ruto has to give those positions to Luos, Luhyas, Somalis, Mijikenda, Maasais and rest of the tribes.

So Mt kenya in Gov should prepare their resignation letters - and go to opposition.

One Token Minister will be left - Kindiki 2027 will be told to step aside in coalition agreement with ODM.

Pundit you need to account for the longshot Nowayhaha scenario of Ruto emerging as No 3 behind Raila and Kalonzo. Who will he endorse? Will he be Prime CS 😐

You seem to have downgraded GEMA to 15%? but they are still 25% by census and 30% by turnout. Your own math. Easily puts Kalonzo ahead of Ruto if his katikati scheme works out.

[Nefertiti]

If GEMA back Kalonzo there will be no albatross because Kalonzo and Kamba are not loathed by other tribes. With Riggy barred - Kalonzo is already sending Dan Maanzo to escort him out of hospital to curry favor with GEMA.

Just assume Kalonzo is no 1 with GEMA backing
1. Ruto is kingmaker as no 3
2. Raila is kingmaker as no 3

Both are more likely to back Kalonzo than each other.

[RV Pundit]

These are improbable scenarios.
First why would Raila run for its sake?
You mean Raila run as ODM (Luo candidate) and scores 30%?
Why would Ruto do the same thing?
Why wont Raila cut a deal with Ruto like they have already done - just waiting for AU to consumate it?
Only scenario Raila run is like when Uhuru recently called him and told him dont join Ruto - I have better deal.
Better deal is for Mt kenya to accept Raila - hapo nayo they start sweating and fainting - RiggyG has inject max dosage on Mt kenya to hate Ruto so much they will prefer Raila. Hard sell.

And they lose Kalonzo to Ruto camp.

Improbable scenario ya Nowahaya goes like this
1) Gema run with someone like Kalonzo scores 30-35%
2) Raila runs as ODM scores - 30%
3) RUto runs without GEMA and alone - 25%

Then you have  run-off. 

Hiyo ni BHANGI.

Kalonzo on himself has no albastross but also has no leadership credentials - if GEMA accept him - he will still struggle.

If GEMA back Kalonzo there will be no albatross because Kalonzo and Kamba are not loathed by other tribes. With Riggy barred - Kalonzo is already sending Dan Maanzo to escort him out of hospital to curry favor with GEMA.

Just assume Kalonzo is no 1 with GEMA backing
1. Ruto is kingmaker as no 3
2. Raila is kingmaker as no 3

Both are more likely to back Kalonzo than each other.

[Nefertiti]

What's your probable scenario at the moment?

The trouble with a Ruto-ODM deal is Raila's unlikelihood to give up Jaramogi dream to be PORK for at least 1 day.

[RV Pundit]

Probable scenarios
1) Raila goes to AU (he already won) - and Ruto waste no minute in taking over ODM - by enticing them with Mt kenya 50% share - UDA merge with ODM - ODM provide Deputy President.

Ruto wins easily - against Mt Kenya candidate or backed candidate like Kalonzo.

2) Uhuru & Mt kenya runs to Raila - and we have repeat of 2022 - Ruto vs Raila - another Royal Battle.

Raila has advantage - Ruto has to pull all stops using incumbency and deep state. He will need Kalonzo 10% - and then try to find 15% that bridge the gap.

Those are two Scenarios I see
1) Repeat of Ruto v Raila - if Mt kenya listen to Uhuru - Raila likely to run with Muhoho. Ruto will need to dig deeper - advantage Raila.

2) Ruto v Kalonzo/Muhoho/Matiangi - Ruto beat them like Luhya's Isukuti drum.


Secenario #1 For Raila - he will want to make AU Chairpeson - a lemonade and call it PRESIDENT OF PRESIDENT or AFRICAN PRESIDENT - and he will have beaten Jaramogi already

What's your probable scenario at the moment?

The trouble with a Ruto-ODM deal is Raila's unlikelihood to give up Jaramogi dream to be PORK for at least 1 day.

[Nefertiti]

I see. These are more probable yes - especially if courts don't save Riggy G. Noway is quite emotional - which is reflective of present GEMA anger at Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit in scenario 1 of Ruto vs Raila-Muhoho,  who is Ruto runningmate? Is it Mdvd or Kalonzo?

[Nowayhaha]

You can bet how it will go based on the previos working relationship within ODM in 2008

Pundit you need to account for the longshot Nowayhaha scenario of Ruto emerging as No 3 behind Raila and Kalonzo. Who will he endorse? Will he be Prime CS 😐

You seem to have downgraded GEMA to 15%? but they are still 25% by census and 30% by turnout. Your own math. Easily puts Kalonzo ahead of Ruto if his katikati scheme works out.

[RV Pundit]

Yes Nowayaha is too bitter and emotional to think straight - he want to finish Ruto!!!

I dont see how the court can saved RiggyG
Yesterday and going forward he will tell the court he is irredeemably irrevocably looking for divorce.
It one thing to return a governor.
This deputy president or deputy governor - who MUST work with President.

If he was smart - from now - he should change his argument at court -  I dont want to be deputy anymore but please find impeachment null and void so I dont get disbarred.

So he needs to RESIGN - and then go to court to battle impeachment.

I see. These are more probable yes - especially if courts don't save Riggy G. Noway is quite emotional - which is reflective of present GEMA anger at Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Definitely Kalonzo has more bargaining chips - he has solid 8-10% - and is out of gov.
MaDVD has 4% and is PM already

MaDVD is only good compromise btw UDA & ODM - if Raila doesnt insist on a Luo like Grace Wanga.

MaDVD likely to remain PM.

Ruto will just give it constitutional power and teeth. I think we will see mini-ammendment of the constitution thro parliament for that.

Pundit in scenario 1 of Ruto vs Raila-Muhoho,  who is Ruto runningmate? Is it Mdvd or Kalonzo?