My prediction post Riggy - DPORK and Interior - the return of Mwangi Kiunjuri

[Nowayhaha]

First nonone has monopoly of violence . Secondly we are not in 2007 . Things are different now . Then Kibaki didnt want to use the army due to it could have brought divisions in the ranks and would have ended up in mumity kalenjins were a significant number in the military .
Now the army majority is not Kalenjins , if any war breaks out expect the divisions to trick down to military and the results will be different .thirdly Ruto escaled ICC by a whisker , you as one oerson who leaked the emails of witness know . If any war happens when he is in power he will be back in Hague answering questions. He would not want to be in that position again.

You havent met kalenjin - who are cold, calculating and efficient war machines. One pokot can hold KDF for days. Just do not take war to Kalenjin nation.

HAPANA JARIBU.

Even USA of A were suprised by efficiency of 2007 of kicking out 600K people in 3 days. That like uprooting Meru county in 3 days.

Kalenjin nation have war infrastracture you dont want to incite - because again 7M people united - erupting - will do heavy damage in very few hours.

Kabila ingine you need to plan, fund, etc mungiki, then 10 people turn on war day. Kalenjin war cry - 1 million warriors - in an hour - without fail.

Peace cant be forced you know that very well, look at Palestine Israel still fighting Hamas for over 1 year , and still no end in site, jews are now living in bunkers sad life
Similar scenario can happen in Kenya ,Kikuyus are vicious and ruthless

[Kadudu]

That would be Mt Kenya's biggest mistake. Between any Mt Kenya candidate and Ruto, Ruto will win. Not because Kenyans love him, but they loath another Mt Kenya president more than they hate Ruto.

GEMA is gone and gone forever . They will never vote for anyone else apart from their own in the near future .
Having said that Ruto will make alot of changes inside his kitchen cabinet . The people who adviced him to go for Gachagua snd who adviced him to start co-operation with Raila will go .
Additionally Ruto has to deliver a referendum according to his deal with Raila . Here is where fireworks will be anything different from BBI and one shilling one vote will further alienate him from GEMA  .
Also agreement on items on referendumn will expose rhe different ideologies between Ruto and Raila.
There is noway Ruto can recover from this .
Raila tried after 20 years in 2022 and couldnt , he also never recovered from betraying Ruto in 2008 . Thats why majority of Kalenjins even if they like Ruto they wary of Raila , they are not confident on the co-operation with Rails and dont trust him .
In kenyan politics fatal mistakes is what costs you power . Moi made one 2002 , Raila has been making the same mistake in 2007 and 2013 and this is Rutos fatal mistake he will be No 3 come 2027.

[Nowayhaha]

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

That would be Mt Kenya's biggest mistake. Between any Mt Kenya candidate and Ruto, Ruto will win. Not because Kenyans love him, but they loath another Mt Kenya president more than they hate Ruto.

GEMA is gone and gone forever . They will never vote for anyone else apart from their own in the near future .
Having said that Ruto will make alot of changes inside his kitchen cabinet . The people who adviced him to go for Gachagua snd who adviced him to start co-operation with Raila will go .
Additionally Ruto has to deliver a referendum according to his deal with Raila . Here is where fireworks will be anything different from BBI and one shilling one vote will further alienate him from GEMA  .
Also agreement on items on referendumn will expose rhe different ideologies between Ruto and Raila.
There is noway Ruto can recover from this .
Raila tried after 20 years in 2022 and couldnt , he also never recovered from betraying Ruto in 2008 . Thats why majority of Kalenjins even if they like Ruto they wary of Raila , they are not confident on the co-operation with Rails and dont trust him .
In kenyan politics fatal mistakes is what costs you power . Moi made one 2002 , Raila has been making the same mistake in 2007 and 2013 and this is Rutos fatal mistake he will be No 3 come 2027.

[RV Pundit]

They dont understand that.

That would be Mt Kenya's biggest mistake. Between any Mt Kenya candidate and Ruto, Ruto will win. Not because Kenyans love him, but they loath another Mt Kenya president more than they hate Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

It Kalenjin and Ruto who gave Uhuru that 10 yrs - otherwise no other community of big ones will agree to deputize Mt kenya soon - not now when you clearly dont have senior leaders.

And then add to Kibaki incumbency getting transferred to Uhuru.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Nowayhaha]

I agree its a fact that Kalenjins made Uhuru President with no run off in both 2013 and 2017 . Its also a fact Mt Kenya made Ruto president in 2022 . The difference between Uhuru and Ruto is Uhuru maintained his winning coalition to win his second term while Ruto has killed his winning Coalition before the second election .
In all 3 instances it was easier to win because Mt Kenya numbers gave a head start . Without Mt Kenya Ruto is seeing No 3 position in 2027 .

It Kalenjin and Ruto who gave Uhuru that 10 yrs - otherwise no other community of big ones will agree to deputize Mt kenya soon - not now when you clearly dont have senior leaders.

And then add to Kibaki incumbency getting transferred to Uhuru.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Nowayhaha]

Reality is something else . Constitution needs to be changed first .
Ruto and Raila have a pact on that .

They dont understand that.

That would be Mt Kenya's biggest mistake. Between any Mt Kenya candidate and Ruto, Ruto will win. Not because Kenyans love him, but they loath another Mt Kenya president more than they hate Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

I agree its a fact that Kalenjins made Uhuru President with no run off in both 2013 and 2017 . Its also a fact Mt Kenya made Ruto president in 2022 . The difference between Uhuru and Ruto is Uhuru maintained his winning coalition to win his second term while Ruto has killed his winning Coalition before the second election .
In all 3 instances it was easier to win because Mt Kenya numbers gave a head start . Without Mt Kenya Ruto is seeing No 3 position in 2027 .

It Kalenjin and Ruto who gave Uhuru that 10 yrs - otherwise no other community of big ones will agree to deputize Mt kenya soon - not now when you clearly dont have senior leaders.

And then add to Kibaki incumbency getting transferred to Uhuru.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

i told you odm ya Raila Ruto was going for it ...he has one leg inside

[Nowayhaha]

Same Raila who abandined Moi in 2002 , decided to fight and undermine Kibaki from 2003-2007 , same Raila who fired Ruto and chased Ruto out of ODM from 2008 - 2011 , Same Raila who stood against Uhuru inn2013 and 2017 , same Raila who betrayed Kalonzo for Martha Karua in 2022 .
Ruto and Raila have been in a Proxy fight since 2001  even when they were ODM together Ruto was under Kalonzos wing . Raila said it clearly the only person who has been consistent in fighting him to gain power since time memorial has been Ruto go read his book after 2013 loss .
Wait and see what will happen …….

I agree its a fact that Kalenjins made Uhuru President with no run off in both 2013 and 2017 . Its also a fact Mt Kenya made Ruto president in 2022 . The difference between Uhuru and Ruto is Uhuru maintained his winning coalition to win his second term while Ruto has killed his winning Coalition before the second election .
In all 3 instances it was easier to win because Mt Kenya numbers gave a head start . Without Mt Kenya Ruto is seeing No 3 position in 2027 .

It Kalenjin and Ruto who gave Uhuru that 10 yrs - otherwise no other community of big ones will agree to deputize Mt kenya soon - not now when you clearly dont have senior leaders.

And then add to Kibaki incumbency getting transferred to Uhuru.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

i told you odm ya Raila Ruto was going for it ...he has one leg inside

[Nefertiti]

Noway and Kikuyus are very upset and emotional. Once they calm down, they will discover earth is hard and only coalitions can win power.

Ruto problem is that he now has the bigger trust deficit not Gema.

That would be Mt Kenya's biggest mistake. Between any Mt Kenya candidate and Ruto, Ruto will win. Not because Kenyans love him, but they loath another Mt Kenya president more than they hate Ruto.

GEMA is gone and gone forever . They will never vote for anyone else apart from their own in the near future .
Having said that Ruto will make alot of changes inside his kitchen cabinet . The people who adviced him to go for Gachagua snd who adviced him to start co-operation with Raila will go .
Additionally Ruto has to deliver a referendum according to his deal with Raila . Here is where fireworks will be anything different from BBI and one shilling one vote will further alienate him from GEMA  .
Also agreement on items on referendumn will expose rhe different ideologies between Ruto and Raila.
There is noway Ruto can recover from this .
Raila tried after 20 years in 2022 and couldnt , he also never recovered from betraying Ruto in 2008 . Thats why majority of Kalenjins even if they like Ruto they wary of Raila , they are not confident on the co-operation with Rails and dont trust him .
In kenyan politics fatal mistakes is what costs you power . Moi made one 2002 , Raila has been making the same mistake in 2007 and 2013 and this is Rutos fatal mistake he will be No 3 come 2027.

[Kadudu]

GEMA does not even 40%. You are taking Meru and Embu for granted. A Mt. Kenya candidate can end up on top after the first round with 35%. Second round stuck at 35% and the other candidate, God forbid it is Ruto with 65%. Hard facts and our Mt. kenya brothers will have to face reality. Join the rest of the Kenyans to kick Ruto out. This is mission impossible for Mt Kenya alone.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Kadudu]

Leave Raila alone. He is now part of Kenya's history. Face reality of today. Mt. Kenya cannot bring down Ruto alone. See the embarassment your kingpin is facing in parliament. Even the support he is getting from Ukambani MPs is tied on conditions, that he supports Kalonzo for president in 2027. If that is not the case, all Ukambani support will evaporate in seconds.

Same Raila who abandined Moi in 2002 , decided to fight and undermine Kibaki from 2003-2007 , same Raila who fired Ruto and chased Ruto out of ODM from 2008 - 2011 , Same Raila who stood against Uhuru inn2013 and 2017 , same Raila who betrayed Kalonzo for Martha Karua in 2022 .
Ruto and Raila have been in a Proxy fight since 2001  even when they were ODM together Ruto was under Kalonzos wing . Raila said it clearly the only person who has been consistent in fighting him to gain power since time memorial has been Ruto go read his book after 2013 loss .
Wait and see what will happen …….

[RV Pundit]

35% from where - even 25% will be hard for GEMA candidate.
We had Kibaki run - when GEMA had numerical advantage - he scored 30% in 1997.
Now GEMA numbers have gone down for 30yrs later.
He'd be lucky to score 25%.

Ruto has the incumbent, the apponter of IEBC, and with DPORK to sale (sure bet for 2032) is hard to beat unless all of them combined behind Raila.

Ruto v Raila (as combined joint candidate) hapo I will start doing MOASS.

Will Kikuyu chauvanist like Nowayaha process supporting Raila versus Ruto:

Hapo sioni.

GEMA does not even 40%. You are taking Meru and Embu for granted. A Mt. Kenya candidate can end up on top after the first round with 35%. Second round stuck at 35% and the other candidate, God forbid it is Ruto with 65%. Hard facts and our Mt. kenya brothers will have to face reality. Join the rest of the Kenyans to kick Ruto out. This is mission impossible for Mt Kenya alone.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Kadudu]

Noway, which between the two devils would you choose?

35% from where - even 25% will be hard for GEMA candidate.
We had Kibaki run - when GEMA had numerical advantage - he scored 30% in 1997.
Now GEMA numbers have gone down for 30yrs later.
He'd be lucky to score 25%.

Ruto has the incumbent, the apponter of IEBC, and with DPORK to sale (sure bet for 2032) is hard to beat unless all of them combined behind Raila.

Ruto v Raila (as combined joint candidate) hapo I will start doing MOASS.

Will Kikuyu chauvanist like Nowayaha process supporting Raila versus Ruto:

Hapo sioni.

[Nowayhaha]

Its not about me. Im giving feedback on the feelings on ground.
Mt Kenya supported Ruto for a particular reason . The biggest one is that Ruto didnt prescribe to politics of betrayal .
they didnt follow Uhuru because had betrayed Ruto and was asking GEMA to support Raila .
Now after getting elected Ruto goes ahead snd betrays Mt Kenya and does a handshake with Raila albeit with his own reasons to survive GENZ . He goes ahead and impeaches Gachagua something which Uhuru didnt do to Ruto and if he did Mt Kenya would still still have been against it .
This has been a biggest lesson for Mt Kenya it has galvanized Mt Kenya and they wont support anyone again outside Mt Kenya . Nor Ruto Nor Raila .
Reason why Ruto will be No 3 and Raila No 2 in the upcoming elections . Pre-election coalitions will be a thing of the past not unless the constitution is amended . Who would want to be designate DP then be impeached through handshake after coming to power . All the big wigs will fight it out and make post election coalitions and yes hoing forward re-runs will be a common thing .

Noway, which between the two devils would you choose?

35% from where - even 25% will be hard for GEMA candidate.
We had Kibaki run - when GEMA had numerical advantage - he scored 30% in 1997.
Now GEMA numbers have gone down for 30yrs later.
He'd be lucky to score 25%.

Ruto has the incumbent, the apponter of IEBC, and with DPORK to sale (sure bet for 2032) is hard to beat unless all of them combined behind Raila.

Ruto v Raila (as combined joint candidate) hapo I will start doing MOASS.

Will Kikuyu chauvanist like Nowayaha process supporting Raila versus Ruto:

Hapo sioni.

[Nowayhaha]

Second round with 35% would it be easier to attract the other parties than lets say Ruto who comes 3rd with 15% .
Now it would be upon Ruto to either support Raila or the GEMA candidate .
Havent you noticed  Raila , Kalonzo are not antagonizing Mt Kenya as Ruto goes ahead and burns all bridges .
If Ruto was to join Raila he would be deputy president designate and just as Gachagua has been impeached he will be menu on the table for impeachment or you think part of the coalition agreement would have do not impeach president /deputy president .

You guys seems not know how low the threshold now os to impeach the deputy President .

GEMA does not even 40%. You are taking Meru and Embu for granted. A Mt. Kenya candidate can end up on top after the first round with 35%. Second round stuck at 35% and the other candidate, God forbid it is Ruto with 65%. Hard facts and our Mt. kenya brothers will have to face reality. Join the rest of the Kenyans to kick Ruto out. This is mission impossible for Mt Kenya alone.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Nowayhaha]

Continue dreaming , you will get rude awakening in 2027 when Ruto polls No 3 .

35% from where - even 25% will be hard for GEMA candidate.
We had Kibaki run - when GEMA had numerical advantage - he scored 30% in 1997.
Now GEMA numbers have gone down for 30yrs later.
He'd be lucky to score 25%.

Ruto has the incumbent, the apponter of IEBC, and with DPORK to sale (sure bet for 2032) is hard to beat unless all of them combined behind Raila.

Ruto v Raila (as combined joint candidate) hapo I will start doing MOASS.

Will Kikuyu chauvanist like Nowayaha process supporting Raila versus Ruto:

Hapo sioni.

GEMA does not even 40%. You are taking Meru and Embu for granted. A Mt. Kenya candidate can end up on top after the first round with 35%. Second round stuck at 35% and the other candidate, God forbid it is Ruto with 65%. Hard facts and our Mt. kenya brothers will have to face reality. Join the rest of the Kenyans to kick Ruto out. This is mission impossible for Mt Kenya alone.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[Nefertiti]

Ruto vs Riggy vs Raila obvious Riggy will be mkia. But I don't buy that Riggy is dumb or emotional like the wife. If anything he looks calm in the storm. What Gema (or Luo or anyone) won't do is the ignorance of dissolving their parties.

Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo are the do-or-die candidates. Riggy, Mdvd are kingmakers.

Now imagine Almighty Moi with absolute power and the Goldenberg stash had 36-40%. I wouldn't be so confident about Ruto's chances. Don't be surprised if a turncoat like Mdvd dumps Ruto for Raila either.

35% from where - even 25% will be hard for GEMA candidate.
We had Kibaki run - when GEMA had numerical advantage - he scored 30% in 1997.
Now GEMA numbers have gone down for 30yrs later.
He'd be lucky to score 25%.

Ruto has the incumbent, the apponter of IEBC, and with DPORK to sale (sure bet for 2032) is hard to beat unless all of them combined behind Raila.

Ruto v Raila (as combined joint candidate) hapo I will start doing MOASS.

Will Kikuyu chauvanist like Nowayaha process supporting Raila versus Ruto:

Hapo sioni.

GEMA does not even 40%. You are taking Meru and Embu for granted. A Mt. Kenya candidate can end up on top after the first round with 35%. Second round stuck at 35% and the other candidate, God forbid it is Ruto with 65%. Hard facts and our Mt. kenya brothers will have to face reality. Join the rest of the Kenyans to kick Ruto out. This is mission impossible for Mt Kenya alone.

You said that in 2023 . Politics does not work like that . The way the consitution is made it gives GEMA a head start . The reason why Raila wants to change the constitution .

[RV Pundit]

Ruto is more fire than Moi.
 

Ruto vs Riggy vs Raila obvious Riggy will be mkia. But I don't buy that Riggy is dumb or emotional like the wife. If anything he looks calm in the storm. What Gema (or Luo or anyone) won't do is the ignorance of dissolving their parties.

Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo are the do-or-die candidates. Riggy, Mdvd are kingmakers.

Now imagine Almighty Moi with absolute power and the Goldenberg stash had 36-40%. I wouldn't be so confident about Ruto's chances. Don't be surprised if a turncoat like Mdvd dumps Ruto for Raila either.