You dont understand Kenya politics.
Totally you're zero.
Kenya politics there are no hardline positions.
Did you imagine in 2007 that Kikuyus would a decade later be dying to vote for Ruto/Kalenjin.
We spend the last few years here arguing with you about Bukusu.
You insisting Bukusu will not vote Ruto because of Kibaki PNU/Ford-K - and in end it crucial Bukusu vote that made big difference - for Ruto - once he made a deal with Wetangula.
You brain freezes because all you politics is based on PAST - not the future.
You need to understand kenya ethnic politics where tribes and tribal leaders are in symbiotic relationship.
Ruto has not done anything to Kikuyus but because of RiggyG mistreatment and Raila co-option they are mostly out.
Out but confused on where next.
Luos and Raila as of now are with Ruto. I dont know of 2027 - he is old but not yet quite old - he still definitely nurse ambition of PORK - but AU is good position.
Anyway It tiring arguing with fools like you.
As long as Ruto has a deal with Kalonzo for example - Kambas will vote Ruto.
As long as Ruto has a deal with Kindiki - he can split Mt kenya East and take it.
As long as Ruto has a deal with Oparanya, Mudavadi and Weta - he takes Western - infact if he put MaDVD as DPORK - he takes 100% of there.
If today Ruto and Riggy reconcile - and Raila/ODM are out - you'll be professing undying love for Ruto.
THERE ARE NO HARDLINE POSITION - ETI LUOS HATE RUTO/KALENJIN THEY WILL NEVER VOTE HIM.
That is crazy - if Kikuyus who accused Ruto of killing and evicting their own - voted Ruto - why would Luos not vote Ruto - who assisted Raila become ODM PM and AU chair?
Ruto who has given Luos - all big position - CDF, Interior Ps, Finance PS, Energy PS, name it.
Once again Raila will determine where Luos will vote. Ruto is just from heroic welcome in Luo Nyanza.
As for Ruto performing badly in Coast/NEP/Matusa - wacha bhangi - how would he be president - if he didnt post respectable showing - despite GOK/Raila running as incumbent.
Those small tribes generally GOK has lot of sway including rigging.
Ruto goes into next election as INCUMBENT. That is worth at least 10% of the vote - extra. People who want money and power will not go forest to hunt what they can negotiate in statehouse - esp small tribes.
As for Gen Z - hiyo POWER VACUUM - Ruto once he made deal with Raila (deal pre-date gen Z) and with Kalonzo hopeless - that vacuum in opposition is being filled by kids and civil society.
Nothint to worry about - those online kids never really vote - and will go tribal ways.
Once RiggyG is impeached - GEMA will stop shadow boxing and half of them will join Kalonzo in opposition and will bolster it.
The opposition vacuum will be filled - Non-GEMA/Non-Kamba Goon Zs will retraced their steps to their tribes - and wait for Ruto, Raila, MaDVD, Wetas direction.
Fact is they have never voted for a Kalenjin , Lihyas have always divided their vote in 92 for Shikuku and Moi in 97 for Moi and Wamalwa in 2002 for Uhuru and Kibaki in 2007 for Raila and Kibaki in 2013 for Mudavadi and Raila in 2017 for Uhuru and Raila in 2022 for Ruto and Raila. These are small facts im giving you .
Im from Coast apart from Mombasa Ruto performed even worse than Uhuru and Kibaki against Raila . Ruto is not Moi and they just dont like him , simple truths , Ruto also performed worse than expectations in Matusa .
If Ruto was that popular as you claim there would never have been Genz,He wouldnt need to hive Raila a quarter of his cabinet to get his backing , Uhuru got Railas backing without sweat …..
Raila is not stupid ,What Ruto is doing will backfire majorly . Ask Moi in 2002…….
Jaluo vote where Raila tells them. Hiyo ingine ni upuzi. Ruto alone will get 35 to 40% of vote. He is an incumbent.Last election he got 30% if you substract Mt Kenya 20% ( or 40% of the kk total vote). Now he has made more progress in matusa, Somalis n coast..than when he was battling Gok n Raila in Azimiom.in communities that just vote gov of the day. He can easily get 40% of the total national vote on his own like Moi easily did. He only need 10% or half gema who voted for him last time..that prof Kindiki can deliver by bringing Mt Kenya East aloneReal ODM base ante more Anti Ruto than even anti Gema.
Tell me in history where Nyanza have voted for a Kalenjin , never in History , even 2002 when Moi even gave them SG for KANU they went the other way….Ruto is abhorred in Nyanza thats a fact…..
I don't know about Ruto 2027 - but Prof Herman Manyora agrees with you that he will face it rough. I think he may run with Mdvd and with most of ODM base easily win.
My own particular opinion is in Gema UDA will be wiped out unless Ruto makes up with Riggy. By Raila margin.
Most of the Mps in Rutos side wont make it come 2027 . Ruto will ne No 3 come 2027 ….
Tone-deaf Ichung'wa and most UDA MPs are quite unpopular. They have the same challenge as Tanga Tanga crew 2018-22. Ichung'wa is unable to watch his mortal mouth but unlike say Kuria does not know how to read the ground. Likes of Ndindi and Kang'ata seem to have smelt the coffee and switched off.
Topic: Kikuyu residents chase Ichungwa away (Read 2291 times)