https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_population1) Ruto is an American project who has ruffled feathers with Somalia Morocco DRC while at the same time America has been vehemently disturbing African leaders like Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia Mnangangwa Zimbabwe etc.No African leader will want Ruto proxy Raila in that position.
2) The second factor is Muslim countries Will not want a situation where Ruto who has been supporting Gaza and Ukraine war Will have influence on Africa Union.Russia China and their Arab countries will talk with their African major trade partners like Rwanda Angola not to vote Raila.
In Fact i even don't think Nigeria Will support Raila who is being fronted by Tinubu political rival Obasanjo.
Raila will lose.This will be a major defeat after 2022.Between now and February 2025,His blood pressure and heart rate will be very high.I don't how he will handle his defeat very well knowing that he has lost alot of political support locally due to his association with Ruto government.
Museveni Kagame Salva Kiir are very cold hearted creatures who are very calculative politically.They have been in power for over 20 years.They don't want someone they can'T trust in that position.In public they will promise Raila support but on the secret ballot they will vote against him and comfort him on his loss.They have to please Ruto because they import their commodities like weapons,oil and DRC smuggled minerals through Kenya and use kenyan banks to launder money therefore for the sake of their economies they have to support ruto in public but curse him in private.
I pity Raila.He will be rejected before the whole world.If he is wise,let him withdraw and feign poor health or service to his country.