Nobody has ever struggled in re-election like Kibaki did in 2007.
That despite economy that was booming.
Moi didnt struggle despite crashing the economy several times.
In fact Moi improved in 1997 - from 33% to 40%.
The reason Moi was nationalist at heart - despite being an idiot
Uhuru similarly improved from 50% - to almost 55%.
The reason in Jubilee 1.0 Ruto run a very nationalistic gov - ensured all projects were shared equally.
Kibaki whom I supported in 1990s till 2004s allowed small cabal of GACHAGUA type morons to destroy his gov.
In the end not only did he lose 2007 - he actually set kikuyu people against rest of the country - saw them kicked out and killed in large numbers.
You cannot blame ODM or Raila for Kibaki faults. Kibaki run a tribalist gov. I personally disembarked when I saw it.
Ruto and Uhuru in Jubilee 1.0 run a very good gov...that generally shared the pie equally.
Ruto now faces another kind of insular tribalistic elite that want to derail his gov.
He should not be afraid to tell them the truth - we want a NATIONAL GOV where everyone is happy to be part of it.
There is nothing that kills gov than tribalism. You can survive like Moi for 24yrs despite being a primary dropout if you are keen to build a national profile
People want to belong before ANYTHING. They don't want to be told the gov belongs to XYZ even if they know it. You want to play smart. Reward you, friends, but talk the national language like Moi did.
Ruto normally does this - and is very disciplined in words. But Gachagua is killing him with other morons around him. The Gikomba issue for most people is yet another Kikuyu entitlement.
Like kibaki - his path to victory will become narrow and narrow - if he pursues a narrow tribal interest. To the extent, Kibaki became 1st kenyan to lose a re-election - despite being elected by 63% and growing the economy by 7%.