Ndii- Mwafrika gotta chart unorthodox transformation path

[RV Pundit]

Shenzen was established as China first Special Economic Zone in 1980.
China reforms started in 1978.

China before Shenzens got food, housing and energy right. Those Athi River EPZ workers spend 40% on food and another 40% on housing. For Athi River EPZ, water is the main operational challenge

[Georgesoros]

If you invest in manufacturing plant

Manufacture what? Kenyans make nothing. I think they need to focus on the service industry like outsourcing (it's an English speaking country) work on ensuring consistent electricity and internet services, then have massive investments in FREE education all the way to university and let the internet become your manufacturing plant.


Kenya is basically like a carribbean island except over populated and much poorer (if africans could embrace the rule of law, it could even become a banking center like the bahamas but I've given up hope on africans ever embracing the rule of law

Ndii is a theorist whose ideas dont work when put into practice.
Simple stuff like enforcing environmental law will create an environment of trust in govt, thus creating thousands of jobs. But these goons do nothing while people are fed toxic water contaminated with chemicals leading to cancer etc. And these are pople with PHDs.

[Georgesoros]

If SeZ bring dollars they should not be taxed.Agricul
Ture is generally untaxed often supported by subsidies.We need to examine if we really need to grow wheat or we grow flowers...use money to import rice n wheat and maize.These cereals never made anyone rich.

(1) https://www.sezauthority.go.ke/publication/document/2
In the past....The EPZ were export based....Today the EPZ have mutated to become SEZ with key focus on local market... Who owns these special economic zone? As you can see from that list above...one of the Special economic Zones is Northlands City which houses Brookside,Peponi schools, I think Nairobi gate industrial park...So these people are not paying taxes...Another culprit is Tatu city, It houses Bidco (i think Moi) Twiga foods(Ruto friend) Copia Domans..Stecol corporation which also dont pay tax...I think even Devki is becoming SEZ ...IN SHORT politically connected businesses are shifting base to become SEZ using stolen government money to avoid paying tax....If the trend continues,KRA revenues will continue to be stagnant....SEZ EPZ whatever you call it is TAX EVASION.

(2) Cut flower business is doing well,I think annual exports are between 90-100BN which is a good FX earner...Why should we waste 200BN annually importing grains and cereals which can give GOK over 30BN annually? Ethiopia has done it...The key point is a reduced import on the shilling,lower revenues and lower food prices...social capitalism.After Food security,then go build 50BN SEZ in Mombasa.

They create an environment favorable to a few oligarchs and then the rest have to eat crumbs.

[gout]

Everything begins as an idea or what you are calling theory. Policy papers, bills, concept papers are all theories. Ndii has stated his case- from 90s to 2014 we were feeling the growth without mega infrastructure projects. In 10 years of mega debt funded infrastructure we do not even have food for millions.  He goes on to make a case for investments in agriculture. He will be actualizing fertilizer subsidies through Hasora Fund and by December 2023 his theory will be tested. We have always agreed of the market in likes of South Sudan, DRC for milk, even Nigeria. 

On the contrary take your environmental law hypothesis - we have countable factories with the main issue being lack of functional sewer system. You only enforce the funny NEMA laws and close the factories.

If you invest in manufacturing plant

Manufacture what? Kenyans make nothing. I think they need to focus on the service industry like outsourcing (it's an English speaking country) work on ensuring consistent electricity and internet services, then have massive investments in FREE education all the way to university and let the internet become your manufacturing plant.


Kenya is basically like a carribbean island except over populated and much poorer (if africans could embrace the rule of law, it could even become a banking center like the bahamas but I've given up hope on africans ever embracing the rule of law

Ndii is a theorist whose ideas dont work when put into practice.
Simple stuff like enforcing environmental law will create an environment of trust in govt, thus creating thousands of jobs. But these goons do nothing while people are fed toxic water contaminated with chemicals leading to cancer etc. And these are pople with PHDs.

[hk]

I have read his article - and he makes lots of excellent point - however one thing that people miss when they talk about Asian export led model - SEA SEA SEA.

If you have access to large population and sea front - you can invest almost zero on infrastructure and thrive. This is where we have failed as kenyans because we turned our Mombasa/Lamu/Kwale into pristine tourist resorts instead of heavily populated and polluted industrial centers.

If you invest in manufacturing plant in Mombasa focussed on export - you only need a tractor to take your container to the port - maybe 10km away. Investment by Kenya gov and investors are almost zero.  All we need is a very efficient port.

That is Asian model.

When it come to hinterland - I am afraid things start becoming very very dicey - even for Asians, Chinese, Americans and everyone.

You simply need lots of money to make hinterland or middle belt US or  China or Mongolia make any economic sense. He should try farming in fertile congo and see how far he gets...without infrastructure.

Ndii has probably never farmed. I did farming myself - after high school - and I swore never to do it again - because after harvesting - I literally had no market for my one acre of cabbages and kales.

Kenya gov should prioritize development along coastline.....and try to shift people to the coastline. That would pay off very fast.

All you need is to buy large pieces of land few kilometeres from coastline - for manufacturing companies - then build ports

For kenya - all these excess labour should be in Lamu, Malindi, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale.

We should invest in Mombasa Dongo Kundu and Lamu EPZ - then encourage manufacturers to move there - and create EPZs,

But look at kenya - someone come and put EPZ in Athi River.

Logistics isn't the main problem in sweat shop jobs,  labour cost is our main problem. Besides Mombasa has EPZ that aren't even fully occupied. Why is labour cost expensive, its everything from food prices to taxation. PAYE is taxed from 13k per month at 10%, then there's nssf and nhif.  Cost of labour is  high and our productivity is low, that's our main problem.

[RV Pundit]

Interesting; I imagined roughly logistics; 30%; labour 30%; energy/electricity 30%; 10% everything else or you want to say labour is 50%?

The way I see manufacturing has not taken off in Mombasa because gov has not focused there. EPZ in Mombasa are mostly private. Also entire coast region has land ownership problem that need fixing.

Logistics isn't the main problem in sweat shop jobs,  labour cost is our main problem. Besides Mombasa has EPZ that aren't even fully occupied. Why is labour cost expensive, its everything from food prices to taxation. PAYE is taxed from 13k per month at 10%, then there's nssf and nhif.  Cost of labour is  high and our productivity is low, that's our main problem.

[Georgesoros]

I believe too much regulation stifles development.
counties should help subsistence farmers bring their products to market instead of harrassing them. Create food processing factories all over so food is available when there is no rain for a few years. Kenya coulda made billions selling to Somalia now. Farmers will produce more and in turn generate more income. THis is policy matters not regulatory. Road systems should be done manually so as to employ more people. Roman roads still exist in Italy after 400 plus yrs.

[hk]

Interesting; I imagined roughly logistics; 30%; labour 30%; energy/electricity 30%; 10% everything else or you want to say labour is 50%?

The way I see manufacturing has not taken off in Mombasa because gov has not focused there. EPZ in Mombasa are mostly private. Also entire coast region has land ownership problem that need fixing.

Logistics isn't the main problem in sweat shop jobs,  labour cost is our main problem. Besides Mombasa has EPZ that aren't even fully occupied. Why is labour cost expensive, its everything from food prices to taxation. PAYE is taxed from 13k per month at 10%, then there's nssf and nhif.  Cost of labour is  high and our productivity is low, that's our main problem.

In sweatshop manufacturing labour is the main factor only second to materials(textile).

[RV Pundit]

Our problem is min wage. we dont need it. EPZ and SEZ should be allowed in temporary to operate without min wages. I know in Kericho that min wage has led to mechanization and poor quality tea - as manual labour is just too expensive.

In sweatshop manufacturing labour is the main factor only second to materials(textile).

[gout]

It is a systemic and structural problem which needs similar solutions. The high minimum wages are as a result of high rents, high food prices, school fees. A live-in house help is earning around 7, 000 at worst.  Tea pickers even with their rent free shacks cannot take it.

Take high rents around EPZ - all land is owned by EPZ parastatal - build affordable houses with schools. I have not seen the affordable houses being launched having schools or dispensaries. 

Our problem is min wage. we dont need it. EPZ and SEZ should be allowed in temporary to operate without min wages. I know in Kericho that min wage has led to mechanization and poor quality tea - as manual labour is just too expensive.

In sweatshop manufacturing labour is the main factor only second to materials(textile).