Every election has it dynamics.
Moi won in 1992 by splitting opposition.
Moi won in 1997 despite kibaki uniting GEMA by gaining ground Luhyaland & Ukambani - promising kaloi/madvd/saitoti/ngala support after he retired.
Moi changed equation in 2002 by endorsing Uhuru. Raila knew only another kikuyu would beat Moi and said Kibaki tosha.
GEMA lost 2005 referendum by huge margin 58 - v- 42 percent;
GEMA lost 2007 by small margin and rigged. Raila and ODM lost by not keeping Kaloi and allowing riggable margin
Ruto knew Raila was hopeless buffon and went back to Uhuru - and won 2013 together.
Raila really had no hope in 2017 - and was just running for the show.
Uhuru took raila onboard to slice Ruto - and later gave birth to handshake.
Raila knew from 2013 - that he need to split gema and kalenjin alliance.
Martha and uhuru were the people to split GEMA.
Conclusion - there are many ways to win against GEMA - see 1992, 1997, 2005.
Let says 2007 is in dispute. 2022 was GEMA divided.
In 2013/2017 - Raila had zero gema and came close - he only needed 5% to win - which he could have gotten if he worked harder like Ruto did in 2022
Okay tell me why Raila didnt become President in 2013,2017 why he opted for Martha Karua in 2027. I will give you the benefit of doubt.