Author Topic: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest  (Read 3216 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« on: September 02, 2022, 10:04:07 PM »
I will go first.I expect 7-0 validation of Ruto win.Not a single evidence from Raila has withstood cross-examination.I expect judges to issues guidelines on national tallying center...to avoid future meltdown

Offline gout

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2022, 11:05:15 PM »
I see them struggling with remedy to a despot chair. What to do when you have incompetent chereras?

In explaining that they are averting a (future) crisis, the judges should overreach their mandate and offer advice to parliament  on qualifications of Vice Chair and other commissioners. We need to lock out such four fools in deciding our future.

Njoki likely to go down with chereras.
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2022, 11:07:27 PM »
Mwilu is a Crook - I dont trust her at all. The way she was quivkly to get form 34A and cordinate with Azimio lawyers to showcase the error in the dates. Where as we know after filling of affidavits upon petition you cant introduce new evidence. Ruto should make sure before end year she is out ouf office.
Koome is St Marys Pick though she might do a
2013 Mutunga.
Wanjala will go with Majority -He had worse experiences in 2013 and 2017 petetion .So bad was his 2017 experience that he took a flight.
Ibrahim has some skeletons , will go with majority depends if he also gets assurances from Rutos team. If Majority go for Raila he will be in  there.
Ouko is a Jaduong a Railas pick . Not as strong as Ojwang.
Leonola - Pro Judiciary will go where CJ goes.
Ndungu will go Rutos way. Many expect her to do Uhurus bidding but would be suicidal .She had the best dissenting Judgement in 2017. If shw gives a different Judgement will dent her career. Though she has skeletons but She is a tough one .
All said and done this one is for Koome to call the shots . If Koome goes with Ruto expect Mwilu and Ouko to dissent.


Offline Dear Mami

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2022, 11:17:27 AM »
Mwilu is a Crook - I dont trust her at all. The way she was quivkly to get form 34A and cordinate with Azimio lawyers to showcase the error in the dates. Where as we know after filling of affidavits upon petition you cant introduce new evidence. Ruto should make sure before end year she is out ouf office.

That document was brought to Court by IEBC, how are you blaming Murgor for it? You're so biased. You mean he can't tell the court to look at the docs IEBC has produced?

Besides that, I mostly share your reading of the judges, with a few differences.

-I see Lenaola as definitely pro-Ruto, not pro-judiciary. The way he has handled the ICT/Scrutiny matters makes that clear to me. I suspect Ibrahim leans that way, too, but just a hunch, not really based on anything he has done. So far his concern seems to be not wanting to be embroiled in IEBC/BOMAS drama, which is neutral, but I still feel he might lean toward Ruto.
-I see four independents: the three ladies (Koome, Mwilu, Njoki) plus Wanjala as neutral/independent. It's the first time Njoki has come across this way in all her questions and comments. Maybe this is the first time she will act without instructions.
-I can't read Ouko at all. I didn't follow BBI and he wasn't there in 2017. No idea what kind of judge he is, he's as quiet and inconspicuous as Ibrahim. But with Ibrahim we have a bit of history to go on.

Lastly, we must be aware that this case is built on two legs. The first is Raila's case that IEBC/Chebukati/Ruto colluded to steal elections. The second is a more neutral NGO/Independents case interrogating the exercise, similar to the one against BBI. I think all judges, regardless of their leaning, will dismiss the first one. IF (and that's a real IF) they want to annul, they will base it on this second leg, not the first. But only if they decide they want to annul. It's not at all clear to me.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2022, 12:34:02 PM »
The body language of the judges and positive vibe suggests significant ground to dismiss the Raila petition because he brought very low value (heresy mostly forgeries) evidence at face value  - that should have been dismissed in lime - and even taken at their highest the IEBC and Ruto team has totally destroyed it. The independent scrutiny report by the judiciary registry and ICT staff put the last nail on Raila political coffin.

The other stuff about Chebukati and IEBC split I think they will generally avoid it. As interesting as it is - the judges can only issue advisory - for political leadership - parliament - to resolve such power struggles by defining how verification and tallying at BOMAS ought to be done - so the roles are clear.

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2022, 02:37:36 PM »

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2022, 03:46:34 PM »

When I say Mwilu is a crook .I mean it.She gave Murgor a platform to play politics . Even when Murgor was going to sit , she insisted for Murgor to continue playing to the gallery.
This Mkora belongs to Jail not Supreme Court. It will come to pass.

Mwilu is a Crook - I dont trust her at all. The way she was quivkly to get form 34A and cordinate with Azimio lawyers to showcase the error in the dates. Where as we know after filling of affidavits upon petition you cant introduce new evidence. Ruto should make sure before end year she is out ouf office.

That document was brought to Court by IEBC, how are you blaming Murgor for it? You're so biased. You mean he can't tell the court to look at the docs IEBC has produced?

Besides that, I mostly share your reading of the judges, with a few differences.

-I see Lenaola as definitely pro-Ruto, not pro-judiciary. The way he has handled the ICT/Scrutiny matters makes that clear to me. I suspect Ibrahim leans that way, too, but just a hunch, not really based on anything he has done. So far his concern seems to be not wanting to be embroiled in IEBC/BOMAS drama, which is neutral, but I still feel he might lean toward Ruto.
-I see four independents: the three ladies (Koome, Mwilu, Njoki) plus Wanjala as neutral/independent. It's the first time Njoki has come across this way in all her questions and comments. Maybe this is the first time she will act without instructions.
-I can't read Ouko at all. I didn't follow BBI and he wasn't there in 2017. No idea what kind of judge he is, he's as quiet and inconspicuous as Ibrahim. But with Ibrahim we have a bit of history to go on.

Lastly, we must be aware that this case is built on two legs. The first is Raila's case that IEBC/Chebukati/Ruto colluded to steal elections. The second is a more neutral NGO/Independents case interrogating the exercise, similar to the one against BBI. I think all judges, regardless of their leaning, will dismiss the first one. IF (and that's a real IF) they want to annul, they will base it on this second leg, not the first. But only if they decide they want to annul. It's not at all clear to me.

Offline Dear Mami

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2022, 04:01:38 PM »

When I say Mwilu is a crook .I mean it.She gave Murgor a platform to play politics . Even when Murgor was going to sit , she insisted for Murgor to continue playing to the gallery.
This Mkora belongs to Jail not Supreme Court. It will come to pass.

What a baseless claim, and you make fun of Pundit's treason paranoias. :D How many times did I see judges calling lawyers back to answer questions? Lenaola did it to the very Murgor not long after this! Achana chuki yenye haina basis, we. Ati crook for calling Murgor to answer. Even worse when she called him to CHALLENGE him and weaken his remarks about the dates. Similarly paranoid Azimio diehards could read that very move as HELPING IEBC! Omesidi! :D

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2022, 04:13:35 PM »

Dear Mami, maybe you dont understand the proceeding. Factwise Null and void. Political wise outstanding.
Mwilu is Azimios agent. Some of us can see beyond the so called actions and questions.
Do you understand how courts work. Her accepting and requesting that Form 34A and it not being filed is against court procedures .
Murgor was doing his job Milking politicaly and it was aided by Mwilu. Watch that video 10 times you will see what I mean.
Ngatia was categorical IEBC and Raila Lawyers shenanigans were not helpful. All certified  form 34As had been provided to courts as per stipulations and timelines. If they wanted to refer to any form 34A they should have refered to the filed ones. When they were filed did they have a discrepancy on dates . Ofcourse yes did Murgor when initially submitting his case mention or show course the discrepancy  the answer is No. Why at that particular time and Mwilu abeting the play ? Thats why She is a Crook.


When I say Mwilu is a crook .I mean it.She gave Murgor a platform to play politics . Even when Murgor was going to sit , she insisted for Murgor to continue playing to the gallery.
This Mkora belongs to Jail not Supreme Court. It will come to pass.

What a baseless claim, and you make fun of Pundit's treason paranoias. :D How many times did I see judges calling lawyers back to answer questions? Lenaola did it to the very Murgor not long after this! Achana chuki yenye haina basis, we. Ati crook for calling Murgor to answer. Even worse when she even called him to CHALLENGE him and weaken his remarks about the dates. Similarly paranoid Azimio diehards could read that very move as HELPING IEBC! Omesidi! :D

Offline Dear Mami

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2022, 05:00:47 PM »
Dude, you're the one who doesn't understand court proceedings and SCORK procedure!  :D

IEBC, meaning BOTH Githu and Mahat FOUGHT to have that original form 34A admitted. ALL THREE Main Azimio lawyers, Orengo, Feroze, and Murgor, FOUGHT against its admission, claiming Mahat was converting himself into a witness and would need to be cross-examined on the form he was presenting without an affidavit. Githu's rejoinder to that argument was that it was the original of a certified copy they had already filed in evidence in their main response, with an affidavit, so the Court allowed them to present the original.

Let me describe it in steps.

1) Why were IEBC presenting the form? To rebut Soweto's earlier evidence from the portal (in her live demonstration), and insisted that that represented new evidence (the live demo from the portal! referencing the portal 34A) so they said they should be allowed to present the original to the Court so that the court could see that the name Jose Carmago was not on the form itself! They even accused Soweto of misleading the court!

2) Kina Orengo then fought the admission of the original on the basis that Mahat was introducing evidence without a witness (yaani he was giving testimony and should be cross-examined, because only witnesses produce exhibits either via affidat or oral examination, and in the latter, can be crossed on it!). Koome allowed it on the basis that it was rebutting Soweto's reference to the portal copy of the 34A earlier and they even said they had looked at the docs presented to the Court during break to ensure the online form wasn't already on record and when they discovered it wasn't, they deemed it new evidence and resolved to permit IEBC to rebut it. . . Which they normally wouldn't be allowed to do because Respondents don't have a right of rejoinder after Petitioner's rejoinder.

3) After MAHAT (NOT Murgor!) handed the original to the Court, Murgor then stood and said, basically, 'Fine. If you're going to admit it, then look at the UDA agents and the dates on which they signed!'

4) Mwilu then looked at it and wrongly assumed Murgor was impugning UDA, and said, basically, 'But your own Azimio agent also signed on that date! Why point to UDA only?'

5) Murgor then answered, 'Our position is not that only the UDA's signature is fishy; We're saying all of them are fakes, because the doc is not genuine.'

So only two people introduced new evidence:
1) Soweto earlier in the day, in response to Koome's questions (not even Mwilu!), referred to the portal version of the 34A in her live demo.
2) Mahat, later in the afternoon, to rebut Soweto's submissions, produced the original of the same 34A.

You won't find Mwilu or Murgor anywhere there :D

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2022, 09:18:58 AM »
Supreme court is just ruling on whether the process was followed as required. the rest are sideshow.


The process not the voting. Carmago was in the process and stayed for the voting. Supreme Court will have to look at the process. From A to Z. If there is a flaw in the process then the court will rule to nullify. Bbi was nullified because Mwaura and Raila didn't follow the proper process. all Azimio had to show is iebc didn't follow the electoral process as stipulated by law.

when we bean counters audit. we ask the person being audited to provide a their process. we compare the process with the policies and procedures and if the process is not followed we  issue a negative audit feedback.

SCORK doesn't need kizungu mingi about traditions na kadhalika. it is about whether carmago and chebhchieth followed the process

Waiganjo Waiguru's husband has summarized what this case is about. kamotho is brilliant and very objective and his analysis shows his genius

Martha Koome could go ahead and decide to defy Maraga's precedence and come up with a new ruling go replace that precedent. it is very rare for courts rule to against an established precedent.

Offline GeeMail

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2022, 11:47:07 AM »
Supreme Court area looks unkempt. Kenya do not appreciate beauty.
Celebratory violence: 2017 crime invented to justify killings to prevent Raila from becoming PORK. http://www.nipate.com/download/file.php?id=4244

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2022, 12:13:18 PM »
Is Martha reading majority or unanimously decision

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2022, 12:14:37 PM »

Introduction .

Is Martha reading majority or unanimously decision

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2022, 12:17:47 PM »
I think unanimous...7-0

Offline RV Heavy Hitter!

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2022, 12:20:30 PM »
I don't know. My heart is racing. I hope Ruto win this thing so we can rest. 60 days will be tough for me!
The future belongs to those who have a quarter of the character and integrity of RV Heavy Hitter!

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2022, 12:28:56 PM »
It's 7-0...all judges agreed on issues that technology

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2022, 12:29:41 PM »
1 -0 To Ruto
8 to go.....

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2022, 12:31:31 PM »
2nd issues nil..2-0

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Prediction of Supreme Court decision on 2022 contest
« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2022, 12:36:55 PM »
3rd issues..nil