These are const without form 34B
Another Problem and a Major Update
14/8/20221 Comment
Lots of news and a new prediction
?1) Of the remaining verifications (where we know the original vote), nearly 2/3 are in areas where Raila performed better (65-40). Since Ruto is slightly ahead, this is statistically unlikely to have happened accidentally. It suggests pro-Raila seat verifications are being held back deliberately.
2) Kajiado East is finally in. Odinga win 2-1.
3) Kilgoris (Narok) is finally in . Ruto win.
4) Kacheliba (West Pokot) is finally in. Ruto win.
5) Wajir South is finally in.Raila narrow win
6) Voi finally in also. 2-1 Raila victory
Now only 8 entirely missing results and three where the form was corrupted:
STAREHE
TIGANIA EAST
LAGDERA
DADAAB
FAFI
KILIFI NORTH
NAROK SOUTH
NAROK WEST
SABATIA
NYAKACH
BORABU
Ruto is 340K ahead, 50.9% to 48.4%
Which is very close to unofficial counts from the 34Bs from both alliances which are circulating round social media.
Raila now need 82% of the remaining vote IF there is no playing around with the 34Bs. Not yet impossible but increasingly unlikely. Its key now to watch for sudden increases in the Raila vote in their heartlands in Nyanza (between the scanned 34B and the verified 34Bs).
Picture
Turnout still looks reasonable, no huge spikes. But Juja with those extra 10,000 votes is a bit high, Mandera South and Tarbaj look odd. Taveta is against the run of the region too. All four marked in red below.
Picture
1 Comment
RV PUNDIT
14/8/2022 20:10:34
STAREHE - Nairobi - 50-50 ->
TIGANIA EAST - Ruto 80% -> 85k
LAGDERA - Garissa low pop - 28K
DADAAB - Garissa Low pop -38K
FAFI - Garissa Low pop- 27K
KILIFI NORTH - Raila 1-3 -----> 120K
NAROK SOUTH - Ruto leading (many kipsigis) - 76K
NAROK WEST - 50-50 (kispigis-maa) -Raila leads - 66K
SABATIA - I heard this read - Ruto lead - mudavadi homeground -70K
NYAKACH - Raila 99% -->80K
BORABU - Nyamira - Raila 3-1. ->65K
Topic: Can Raila still rig - unavailable Form 34B (Read 1542 times)