My 'MOAS': Kalonzo inheriting Baba's Base

[Dear Mami]

• Tweet

Not a spreadsheet, obvi,  but the term has come to be used here as a synonym for 'predicting political outcomes' so I'm using it that way. I'm not one to dabble in predictions but I'll venture to say today that Kalonzo just inherited a great majority of Baba's voters. Who is declared tomorrow is the only thing that might change this.

[RV Pundit]

Ask bukusu and kijana wamalwa what they saw in 1996 and what they again did to Weta in 2018 snatching his majority...that why bukusu have today are giving Ruto the critical numbers to cross 50 percent.Luos according to my late dad are so ambitious and unreliable.Ruto & kalenjin delivered to Raila in 2007 but who did they fight first ?.The only folks you can relie on in Kenya politics are kalenjin and now Gema.In business relie only on somalis... very trustworthy people

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ask bukusu and kijana wamalwa what they saw in 1996 and what they again did to Weta in 2018 snatching his majority...that why bukusu have today are giving Ruto the critical numbers to cross 50 percent.Luos according to my late dad are so ambitious and unreliable.Ruto & kalenjin delivered to Raila in 2007 but who did they fight first ?.The only folks you can relie on in Kenya politics are kalenjin and now Gema.In business relie only on somalis... very trustworthy people

Yes, Kalonzo atalia kwa choo for a very long time. He can't come to RV because of name-calling Ruto, and he can't climb the mountain because of his association with Raila, so he is relegated to abusive Odinga. Luhyas are getting tired and ambitious. Soon they will form their party and stick together. The RVGEMA machinery of the last ten years and another ten years will be lethal after 20 years.

[Dear Mami]

I'm not predicting election outcomes, but all he has to do to get back Luhya (as a block) is pick a Western Running mate and promise good things to Coast.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I'm not predicting election outcomes, but all he has to do to get back Luhya (as a block) is pick a Western Running mate and promise good things to Coast.

That is even a more deadly path, if history is to go by. Luhyas always vote divided, so Kalonzo's diddly-squat numbers and divided people is a gigantic disaster. Without RV and the mountain folk in the equation, that coalition is super kaput. 1990 to 2022 should tell you a thing or two. Let us be reasonable sometimes. I think Kalonzo's time to strategize was 20 years ago. He sacrificed his ambition for a senile TASA politician who shoots blanks! He has reached expiry date, dada.

[Dear Mami]

That is even a more deadly path, if history is to go by. Luhyas always vote divided, so Kalonzo's diddly-squat numbers and divided people is a gigantic disaster. Without RV and the mountain folk in the equation, that coalition is super kaput. 1990 to 2022 should tell you a thing or two. Let us be reasonable sometimes. I think Kalonzo's time to strategize was 20 years ago. He sacrificed his ambition for a senile TASA politician who shoots blanks! He has reached expiry date, dada.

So you think that if Kalonzo with a Western no. 2 goes up against an RV-GEMA, Luhyas will abandon their own to support Kales and Kyuks? And you get all testy when I won't take your predictions seriously, man?

Kalonzo will have NO PROBLEM getting the full backing of 'kabila ndogo' in Kenya, including Omogusii, especially if he promises 'one-term only' as he was pledging. His biggest complication/difficulty is Luos who haven't yet gotten PORK, which is why I say today's declaration is a big variable. IF Raila gets PORK, Luos will join the mlolongo with everyone else and vote Kaloi/Luhya as a block.