The real turnout is higher than thought

[RV Pundit]

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Kalenjin land closing nearly 80%
Luo Nyanza in lower mid 70s
Mt kenya in 65-70

[Nefertiti]

if there is one person who is on steroids spreading lies, rumors, guesswork, half truths and general DISINFORMATION like Russian bots it's you RV Pundit. If Ruto lost after all this it would be a real shame. It actually adds zero value.

I hereby award you TROLL OF THE SEASON AWARD. Unopposed.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

According to BBC, Ruto has opened almost a 1 million lead with almost 80% reporting (53.2). Siku sa kuwa mafukara kwa handshake brothers is around the corner. I think pundit MAOS is right.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62444316
There are two Kisumu constituencies, One Migori, two homa bays, two Mombasas, two embus, Kabete, Kepenguria, Kacheliba, One Nyandarua, two bungomas, one meru and few others almost 50/50 are still not counted and verified. It looks Raila will gain extra 100K votes when all are tallied, but with Samoei's 800K lead, there is no way old mzee will catch up.  Ruto will win by extra 600K or more votes!

[Nefertiti]

how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.

The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?

[Nefertiti]

Check here  https://elections.nation.africa/

Ruto   49.91%   6,703,493
Raila  49.41%   6,636,849



Pundit and Itumbi have been peddling rumors about Nairobi voting Ruto over Raila. Just visit NTV and see that is another pure white lie.

[Nowayhaha]

Robina relax for the results trying to compare compromised Kenyan media vs reauters and BBC is a show of desperation.
The trend is showing secondly when you start seeing News like below you then realise things are thick with Azimio.

Azimio leaders raise concerns on the ongoing verification exercise at the Bomas of Kenya on August 12, 2022.#KenyaDecides2022 pic.twitter.com/9rMXUqJxly

— Nation Africa (@NationAfrica) August 12, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Robina, this on Form 34B
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#

[RV Pundit]

Form 34B - about 239 have been uploaded though 6 I hear has issues.

[RV Pundit]

Charles Horsnby been also doing calculation

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.

The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?

Ntv and Ktn had DP passed 50% before the compromised media stopped it to work on violent plan B. I know you know clearly that BBC is more accurate than all Kenyan media combined because they don't have a candidate in the bout. When they say DP is at 53%, take it to the bank. As such, there is no way Raila will get enough votes to pass DP's 800K lead, especially when Embu, Meru, and few places in the mountain are still pending!

[RV Pundit]

Seem Reuters have been removed. BBC has stalled. Must be gov pulling strings. Now we are 235 - just 55 forms to go - and looking at the remainder - I dont see how Raila catches up.

how is BBC better than Citizen? The LAST updates from media portals is 49.x for both candidates - with Ruto ahead by <100k votes.

The rest is rumors and lies from either camp. Why do you feel the urge to be ahead yet Chebukati is meticulously combing through the forms?

Ntv and Ktn had DP passed 50% before the compromised media stopped it to work on violent plan B. I know you know clearly that BBC is more accurate than all Kenyan media combined because they don't have a candidate in the bout. When they say DP is at 53%, take it to the bank. As such, there is no way Raila will get enough votes to pass DP's 800K lead, especially when Embu, Meru, and few places in the mountain are still pending!

[RV Pundit]

Those still pending or having issues

16   Bungoma   Kanduyi   220   
13   Bungoma   Sirisia   217   
20   Bungoma   Tongaren   224   
291   Diaspora         
32   Embu   Manyatta   63   
33   Embu   Runyenjes   64   
39   Garissa   Dadaab   30   
40   Garissa   Fafi   31   
36   Garissa   Garissa Township   27   
38   Garissa   Lagdera   29   
47   Homa Bay   Ndhiwa   250   
45   Homa Bay   Rangwe   248   
48   Homa Bay   Suba North   251   
49   Homa Bay   Suba South   252   
54   Kajiado   Kajiado East   185   
55   Kajiado   Kajiado West   186   
83   Kiambu   Kabete   119   
91   Kilifi   Ganze   15   
89   Kilifi   Kaloleni   13   
87   Kilifi   Kilifi North   11   
100   Kisii   Bomachoge Borabu   263   
99   Kisii   South Mugirango   262   
108   Kisumu   Kisumu West   239   
113   Kisumu   Nyakach   244   
124   Kwale   Matuga   9   
149   Mandera   Mandera East   43   
148   Mandera   Mandera South   42   
157   Meru   Igembe North   53   
159   Meru   Tigania East   55   
171   Migori   Kuria East   260   
167   Migori   Suna West   256   
174   Mombasa   Kisauni   3   
177   Mombasa   Mvita   6   
186   Nairobi City   Dagoretti North   275   
196   Nairobi City   Embakasi East   285   
193   Nairobi City   Embakasi South   282   
188   Nairobi City   Langata   277   
200   Nairobi City   Starehe   289   
185   Nairobi City   Westlands   274   
219   Narok   Kilgoris   177   
221   Narok   Narok North   179   
223   Narok   Narok South   181   
224   Narok   Narok West   182   
228   Nyamira   Borabu   273   
226   Nyamira   West Mugirango   271   
233   Nyandarua   Ndaragwa   93   
252   Taita Taveta   Voi   26   
255   Tana River   Bura   20   
253   Tana River   Garsen   18   
263   Trans Nzoia   Cherangany   140   
262   Trans Nzoia   Kiminini   139   
279   Vihiga   Luanda   214   
277   Vihiga   Sabatia   212   
285   Wajir   Eldas   37   
281   Wajir   Wajir North   33   
286   Wajir   Wajir South   38   
289   West Pokot   Kacheliba   131   
287   West Pokot   Kapenguria   129   

[RV Pundit]

No   County   Cont   Analysis
186   Nairobi City   Dagoretti North   50 50 BIG
196   Nairobi City   Embakasi East   50 50 BIG
193   Nairobi City   Embakasi South   50 50 BIG
188   Nairobi City   Langata   50 50 BIG
200   Nairobi City   Starehe   50 50 BIG
185   Nairobi City   Westlands   50 50 BIG
54   Kajiado   Kajiado East   50-50 BIG
55   Kajiado   Kajiado West   50-50 BIG


255   Tana River   Bura   50-50 SMALL
253   Tana River   Garsen   50-50 SMALL
285   Wajir   Eldas   50-50 SMALL
281   Wajir   Wajir North   50-50 SMALL
286   Wajir   Wajir South   50-50 SMALL
291   Diaspora      50-50 SMALL
219   Narok   Kilgoris   50-50 SMALL
39   Garissa   Dadaab   50-50 SMALL
40   Garissa   Fafi   50-50 SMALL
36   Garissa   Garissa Township   50-50 SMALL
38   Garissa   Lagdera   50-50 SMALL


47   Homa Bay   Ndhiwa   RAILA BIG
45   Homa Bay   Rangwe   RAILA BIG
48   Homa Bay   Suba North   RAILA BIG
49   Homa Bay   Suba South   RAILA BIG
108   Kisumu   Kisumu West   RAILA BIG
113   Kisumu   Nyakach   RAILA BIG
167   Migori   Suna West   RAILA BIG
124   Kwale   Matuga   RAILA SMALL


149   Mandera   Mandera East   RAILA SMALL
148   Mandera   Mandera South   RAILA SMALL
91   Kilifi   Ganze   RAILA SMALL
89   Kilifi   Kaloleni   RAILA SMALL
87   Kilifi   Kilifi North   RAILA SMALL
100   Kisii   Bomachoge Borabu   RAILA SMALL
99   Kisii   South Mugirango   RAILA SMALL
174   Mombasa   Kisauni   RAILA SMALL
177   Mombasa   Mvita   RAILA SMALL
221   Narok   Narok North   RAILA SMALL
228   Nyamira   Borabu   RAILA SMALL
226   Nyamira   West Mugirango   RAILA SMALL
252   Taita Taveta   Voi   RAILA SMALL
279   Vihiga   Luanda   RAILA SMALL

32   Embu   Manyatta   RUTO BIG
33   Embu   Runyenjes   RUTO BIG
83   Kiambu   Kabete   RUTO BIG
157   Meru   Igembe North   RUTO BIG
159   Meru   Tigania East   RUTO BIG
233   Nyandarua   Ndaragwa   RUTO BIG
223   Narok   Narok South   RUTO BIG
263   Trans Nzoia   Cherangany   RUTO BIG

287   West Pokot   Kapenguria   RUTO SMALL
171   Migori   Kuria East   RUTO SMALL
16   Bungoma   Kanduyi   RUTO SMALL
13   Bungoma   Sirisia   RUTO SMALL
20   Bungoma   Tongaren   RUTO SMALL
224   Narok   Narok West   RUTO SMALL
262   Trans Nzoia   Kiminini   RUTO SMALL
277   Vihiga   Sabatia   RUTO SMALL
289   West Pokot   Kacheliba   RUTO SMALL
         

[RV Pundit]

I dont see any much change - Raila best is to clawback 50-100K votes - maybe 0.5%

So we likely end up at 52 versus 47 if not 53 versus 46 with 1% for others

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I dont see any much change - Raila best is to clawback 50-100K votes - maybe 0.5%

So we likely end up at 52 versus 47 if not 53 versus 46 with 1% for others

It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.

[RV Pundit]

Okay - I see Itumbi saying that - that is based on Form 34A right. But Form 34B - that these guys are using to compute are showing it's bigger.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#

What is primary document Chebukati will use - Form 34As right? or Form 34B

It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Okay - I see Itumbi saying that - that is based on Form 34A right. But Form 34B - that these guys are using to compute are showing it's bigger.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0dkClo8RWZFr31zc1Lq_5LIi-dLGPZYkmKI7UD7M3K3mh_1g_8aWztHISf6fRLUPzSVdfFOY2dAMm/pubhtml#

What is primary document Chebukati will use - Form 34As right? or Form 34B

It will be 50.5 % , not the 52% we thought. The Reuters and BBC numbers were fake after further investigation. Real numbers show they are neck and neck but DP will cross 50% + about 57000 votes only.

I take my words back. After further verification, I see BBC website is legit. The numbers they have is around 52.9 but seem stuck. Had to double check BBC.CO.UK VS BBC.COM. It is the same! so what they have must be good. It looks like what is on form 34Bs

[RV Pundit]

Yes I think primary document is form 34B that will generate form 34C - but has to be verified against form 34A.

I am suspecting that folks did few mistakes when they were entering form 34As - as the forms came randomly

Anyway small win will send us back to supreme court.

Large win is good.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Yes I think primary document is form 34B that will generate form 34C - but has to be verified against form 34A.

I am suspecting that folks did few mistakes when they were entering form 34As - as the forms came randomly

Anyway small win will send us back to supreme court.

Large win is good.

Have you interrogated this document to see if at least the numbers are matching with 34B from IEBC portal? I h'm getting skeptical of everything because fake new is spreading so thick and first. Chebukati seem to be the only person we have to wait for.