Kidero has a mountain. The merger of Wanga with Magwanga with ODM/Raila seem a little too much for Kidero. It probably going to the wire..Kidero maried Tom Mboya's daughter so he is going to be competitive amongst Subas...and his homeground in Asumbi Rangwe. He will struggle in the north of Homabay - Kapisul-Kabondo thanks to Magwanga. Wanga is from kisumu but married in Rangwe. Let see but so far all opinion polls have placed Wanga ahead...but they are very unreliable. Biggest problem facing Wanga is the support of current governor Cyrpian who is a buffon and did nothing in Homabay...Homabay remain undeveloped with little in rural road network. It one of places in kenya where you can get stuck in serious matope...Siaya governor improved in 2nd term.
Siaya ndio kuna shida - Orengo seem homebound.
I think Kisumu, Migori and Homabaya ODM will survive.
I don't know about Homa Bay. I have been following closely and it seem Luos are not playing this time. They want Kidero to stop 'bubu's' industrial scale corruption in the county. Kidero is not any better, but folks online don't want ODOMOS in Homabay this time round!
Kidero is copy pasting DP's campaign formula and it seem working. He has women chapters, subcounty chapters, and bottom up going on!