Mizani poll.Ngirici to give waiguru kichapo.

[Githunguri]

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Purity Wangui Ngirichi  emerges to be the most popular gubernatorial candidate commanding the lead with 41.3%. Incumbent Governor Ann Mumbi Waiguru comes second place with 39.2%.
Based on Mizani's previous county polls , this indicates a tight race between the two women   . pic.twitter.com/d6wuEN3aRk

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 20, 2022

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[RV Pundit]

That is within margin of error - not good for Ngirici because party suit people will carry Waiguru.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Kirinyaga is UDA zone, when UDA old people and unpolled folks come out, Ngirici will lose by 4-10 percentage votes. Ngirici is more UDA than Anne, but she messed up by going independent or Kirinyaga Kwanza ticket!. Even her is campaigning for Ruto, not Raila. The moment she touch Raila, her base will evaporate almost instantaneously.

[RV Pundit]

Yes I have been watching Ngirici moves to know if Martha will get traction or not.
She is good barometer to know the political weather of Kirinyanga.
Aside from initial congratulation message - she has steered clear of Martha and Kibicho misadventure.
That tell you Martha has no ground.
She is a good indicator for measuring ground support of Martha....if Martha get support of Kirinyanga...Ngirici will support her bid..for now Martha has been rejected at home.

Kirinyaga is UDA zone, when UDA old people and unpolled folks come out, Ngirici will lose by 4-10 percentage votes. Ngirici is more UDA than Anne, but she messed up by going independent or Kirinyaga Kwanza ticket!. Even her is campaigning for Ruto, not Raila. The moment she touch Raila, her base will evaporate almost instantaneously.

[Nefertiti]

Blinkers. How come Ngirici is so savvy to be the barometer - and still left wildly popular UDA? Long before Karua she went independent - despite your very loud protests, advices & criticisms  - yaani mlimtupia tantrums calling her DOA - but she said vote me governor and WHOEVER for PORK.

To follow your logic that says ground is not UDA.

Second: she is leading against UDA candidate since Karua.

My point: Ngirici is better barometer for UDA LOSS of traction. At best what I see is ground is slippery 50-50. There is no UDA suit nor such pressure to save wishy-washy Waiguru - Azimio in fact has the momentum.

Yes I have been watching Ngirici moves to know if Martha will get traction or not.
She is good barometer to know the political weather of Kirinyanga.
Aside from initial congratulation message - she has steered clear of Martha and Kibicho misadventure.
That tell you Martha has no ground.
She is a good indicator for measuring ground support of Martha....if Martha get support of Kirinyanga...Ngirici will support her bid..for now Martha has been rejected at home.

Kirinyaga is UDA zone, when UDA old people and unpolled folks come out, Ngirici will lose by 4-10 percentage votes. Ngirici is more UDA than Anne, but she messed up by going independent or Kirinyaga Kwanza ticket!. Even her is campaigning for Ruto, not Raila. The moment she touch Raila, her base will evaporate almost instantaneously.

[RV Pundit]

Martha come from Kirinyanga;
If any traction was to happen; it would start from there;
I would expect now that she has quit the race; Ngirici would be happy to join Azimio with her; first to get Martha supporters who wanted her for governor;
And secondly to align with new Azimio traction.

And dont sweat this - this just one of the indicators. We have crowds. We have seen Martha heckled or now just left to her own thing. We have opinion polls.
We have social media.

In short to read the mood of the ground WE HAVE MANY TOOLS.

So far the only MAJOR MOVE IN AZIMIO POST-MARTHA has BEEN KIRAITU - who has embraced Martha and Raila after initially taking a hidding.
And we know he is desperate for Peter Munya support.

So yes in Meru we can say Martha and Munya have found some tractions - whether they can sustain it - is doubtful

Kiraitu and Munya need to work together to deliver 30 percent to Azimio

Blinkers. How come Ngirici is so savvy to be the barometer - and still left wildly popular UDA? Long before Karua she went independent - despite your very loud protests, advices & criticisms  - yaani mlimtupia tantrums calling her DOA - but she said vote me governor and WHOEVER for PORK.

To follow your logic that says ground is not UDA.

Second: she is leading against UDA candidate since Karua.

My point: Ngirici is better barometer for UDA LOSS of traction. At best what I see is ground is slippery 50-50. There is no UDA suit nor such pressure to save wishy-washy Waiguru - Azimio in fact has the momentum.

Yes I have been watching Ngirici moves to know if Martha will get traction or not.
She is good barometer to know the political weather of Kirinyanga.
Aside from initial congratulation message - she has steered clear of Martha and Kibicho misadventure.
That tell you Martha has no ground.
She is a good indicator for measuring ground support of Martha....if Martha get support of Kirinyanga...Ngirici will support her bid..for now Martha has been rejected at home.

Kirinyaga is UDA zone, when UDA old people and unpolled folks come out, Ngirici will lose by 4-10 percentage votes. Ngirici is more UDA than Anne, but she messed up by going independent or Kirinyaga Kwanza ticket!. Even her is campaigning for Ruto, not Raila. The moment she touch Raila, her base will evaporate almost instantaneously.

[KenyanPlato]

It will take all day to show your inconsistencies. Ruto is losing ground in Central very fast. His momentum is gone. The fact Ngirici is able to poll this favorably shows that uda I'd very unpopular. It waiguru loses kirinyaga uda will lose too

[Nefertiti]

It will take all day to show your inconsistencies. Ruto is losing ground in Central very fast. His momentum is gone. The fact Ngirici is able to poll this favorably shows that uda I'd very unpopular. It waiguru loses kirinyaga uda will lose too

Punda is a strange man: what does it say when the "barometer" LEAVES the allegedly popular party?

Why are Kiunjuri, Kuria, Kabogo not barometers? Their noises and sudden boldness are consistent with Karua vs Gachagua tractions.

[RV Pundit]

Wacha Matusi.

Somebody is dying to gate crush into Gachagua tour - and you think Gachagua has no traction?

All Kabogo, Kuria and Mwangi are saying in simple English.

Gachagua you're CRUSHING US. RUTO PLEASE STOP THIS MAN. PLEASE RUTO STOP THIS MAN.  HE IS GOING FOR UDA CLEAN SWEEP.

It doesnt mean Gachagua is weak. It means the man is TERROR MODE RELOADED. Uhuru knows him. That is why he aint getting into a dog fight with Gachagua.

All I am hearing is Gachagua is dictator.

People know Gachagua...i use to read about him in 90s...the man is very effective full terror mode.

Martha has NO TRACTION - NOBODY is dying to be seen with her - I am sure Kibicho and Uhuru have to make threatening phone calls and promise of money to candidate to welcome here.

Punda is a strange man: what does it say when the "barometer" LEAVES the allegedly popular party?

Why are Kiunjuri, Kuria, Kabogo not barometers? Their noises and sudden boldness are consistent with Karua vs Gachagua tractions.

[Nefertiti]

Noone fears Gachagua - those are dog whistles directed at Ruto himself. It like attacking Kibicho & Matiang'i instead of Uhuru. Basically they are prepping their folks with many excuses  after Ruto shortchanged them.

This is a direct product of UDA utapeli  listen to Kabogo instead of dismiss him as drunkard. I mean you praised the guy many times before when he was backing Ruto - now he is a big fool?
 
Of course we long warned these fools - while they were decamping from Jubilee fwaa without their own lifeboat - direct into Ruto safina. Only to find it  the actual pirate ship.

The Kiunjuri-Kuria-Kabogo grievances did not just start -- they backed Martha as their spokesman before - only now her traction vs Gachagua unpopularity has given the courage & excuse to ship out. Ruto is not hitting back for a reason: he is afraid.

Zidi kuota tu.

Wacha Matusi.

Somebody is dying to gate crush into Gachagua tour - and you think Gachagua has no traction?

All Kabogo, Kuria and Mwangi are saying in simple English.

Gachagua you're CRUSHING US. RUTO PLEASE STOP THIS MAN. PLEASE RUTO STOP THIS MAN.  HE IS GOING FOR UDA CLEAN SWEEP.

It doesnt mean Gachagua is weak. It means the man is TERROR MODE RELOADED. Uhuru knows him. That is why he aint getting into a dog fight with Gachagua.

All I am hearing is Gachagua is dictator.

People know Gachagua...i use to read about him in 90s...the man is very effective full terror mode.

Martha has NO TRACTION - NOBODY is dying to be seen with her - I am sure Kibicho and Uhuru have to make threatening phone calls and promise of money to candidate to welcome here.

[RV Pundit]

When people like you they show up; they listen to you; They come for your rallies, they get animated; they praise you; Hii ya Martha ya HARRO! not even Jubilee who are on her side are elbowing each other for a space near her; In fact Boniface Mwangi and Kabando wa Kabando have an acre btw each other and they are in close circles.

Politics wewe you cant read.

For someone who was supporting Ruto to support Raila takes more than Martha - unless they were undecided -  otherwise politics is like love story - very hard for people to quit just after one or two disappointment - so yes even if some people are unhappy about Gachagua - it not reason enough to embrace Raila.

In the same way Ruto has gone to NASA backyard every weekend - it has been very very little traction - and that support takes a decade to show up in good numbers. You just have to keep knocking and knocking - because people dont just change their mind. There has to be repeated violation of trust....until people say okay this it.

I told you in 2018 that to DECOUPLE Ruto from MT KENYA wont be EASY. As long as he had strongly coupled - my friend - it very very hard and very very expensive unless he is reckless...Gachagua is probaly the 1st disappointment....he still has a lot of Bonga Points left

Politics is an emotional love story.

Noone fears Gachagua - those are dog whistles directed at Ruto himself. It like attacking Kibicho & Matiang'i instead of Uhuru. Basically they are prepping their folks with many excuses  after Ruto shortchanged them.

This is a direct product of UDA utapeli  listen to Kabogo instead of dismiss him as drunkard. I mean you praised the guy many times before when he was backing Ruto - now he is a big fool?
 
Of course we long warned these fools - while they were decamping from Jubilee fwaa without their own lifeboat - direct into Ruto safina. Only to find it  the actual pirate ship.

The Kiunjuri-Kuria-Kabogo grievances did not just start -- they backed Martha as their spokesman before - only now her traction vs Gachagua unpopularity has given the courage & excuse to ship out. Ruto is not hitting back for a reason: he is afraid.

Zidi kuota tu.

[Nefertiti]

I agree - which is why I laugh at your 40% Kamba stories.

These amigos are not greenhorns.. they defintely are not just hating on Gachagua without a bigger agenda. They need an excuse to say we have been betrayed or belittled.. so first they smear him. Next you will hear vote me for governor - but for PORK vote WHOEVER. Or worse.

Martha gives them that excuse by polishing Raila brand. Ukiona watu wengi wa independent ama Jubilee wanaongoza ogopa. You are so over-confident.

Let see in few days: Kuria sent a demand letter - whether Ruto surrender or ignore them. And what they do. These are not idiots.

When people like you they show up; they listen to you; They come for your rallies, they get animated; they praise you; Hii ya Martha ya HARRO! not even Jubilee who are on her side are elbowing each other for a space near her; In fact Boniface Mwangi and Kabando wa Kabando have an acre btw each other and they are in close circles.

Politics wewe you cant read.

For someone who was supporting Ruto to support Raila takes more than Martha - unless they were undecided -  otherwise politics is like love story - very hard for people to quit just after one or two disappointment - so yes even if some people are unhappy about Gachagua - it not reason enough to embrace Raila.

In the same way Ruto has gone to NASA backyard every weekend - it has been very very little traction - and that support takes a decade to show up in good numbers. You just have to keep knocking and knocking - because people dont just change their mind. There has to be repeated violation of trust....until people say okay this it.

I told you in 2018 that to DECOUPLE Ruto from MT KENYA wont be EASY. As long as he had strongly coupled - my friend - it very very hard and very very expensive unless he is reckless...Gachagua is probaly the 1st disappointment....he still has a lot of Bonga Points left

Politics is an emotional love story.

[RV Pundit]

Ukambani - opinion polls have Ruto at 40 percent - almost all - and for quite some time - Kalonzo has violated the kambas trust severally - he might just have made 40% of them doubt his sanity. He is certainly become a butt of jokes and made kambas look bad.

Personally in MOAS I have tempered that with about 35 percent in Machakos (demographics), 30 percent in Makueni and 20 percent in Kitui.

Remember if a person is getting no traction it shows up in opinion polls - so dont think opinion polls are wrong - especially in homogenous region - however as we get the d-day - community consensus/pressure will tighten the numbers - so yes I'd remove 10-15 percent from an average of opinion polls for Ruto on Raila strongholds and vice-versa - though as figures go near 50-50 - it becomes split - because there is no pressure - but a candidate enjoying 70 percent - you can add 10 percent because last minute pressure from 70 percent will sway 10 percent - if someone is polling 15 percent - it's likely they will do less than 10 percent. Those around 50-50 will remain stuck there. People there are locked in an endless squabble that cannot be resolved.

There are areas Ruto struggles in opinion polls due to sampling problems like Vihiga - and there are areas he struggled because it hard for people to change their minds - like Kilifi or Taita Taveta....Kilifi and Kwale will now flip with Kingi onboard - the same way Bungoma has gone Ruto hard - because Ruto had already work on the ground - soften it.

Kabogo and Kuria - are not looking for an excuse to join Azimio - I believe they are looking for Ruto to stop Gachagua six piece suit push.

I agree - which is why I laugh at your 40% Kamba stories.

These amigos are not greenhorns.. they defintely are not just hating on Gachagua without a bigger agenda. They need an excuse to say we have been betrayed or belittled.. so first they smear him. Next you will hear vote me for governor - but for PORK vote WHOEVER. Or worse.

Martha gives them that excuse by polishing Raila brand. Ukiona watu wengi wa independent ama Jubilee wanaongoza ogopa. You are so over-confident.

Let see in few days: Kuria sent a demand letter - whether Ruto surrender or ignore them. And what they do. These are not idiots.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Minji Minji is riding on Ruto jeshi. When these folks hit the polls, independent candidates will see dust. Folks ignore Ruto's massive crowds never seen anywhere. Even the media don't talk about it. Ruto's crowds are out of this world. Trump and Obama wish they could pull such crowds!