Moses Kuria:UDA hires crowds in GEMA

[Githunguri]

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Moses Kuria: What my competitors do is transport their fans using buses and lorries to their campaigns so that they can cheer them. This in turn distorts market dynamics because you don’t get to know whether you’ve got real support on the ground  #SundayLive pic.twitter.com/RLrXvfwGIV

— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) June 19, 2022

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[RV Pundit]

Kiambu exceptionalist like Nowayaha.
He thinks we should stop press because he is struggling against Wa-matangi.
And that presidency will be won or lost in Kiambu.
Wake up. Jomo Kenyatta era died where Kiambu was everything in kenya politics with 5 ministers.
Kiambu and Kakamega are equal - there are 800k luhya votes in Kakamega - about the same 900k kikuyu votes in Kiambu - with 200k from other tribes.

[Nowayhaha]

Im a realist , I dont come from Kiambu but I know how Kiambu is a major factor in elections. In 1992 by supporting Matiba from Muranga gave Moi a run for their money.
Being biggest County by population . Nairobi County does not count . . You win Kiambu you have a leverage as their electorate numbers is like Coast province by itself.
There is a reason in 2002 Moi went with Uhuru and not Kibaki though he had indicated in 98 Kibaki is good enough . He saw Kiambu as the factor.
You continue believing in your own "facts" as you believed Ruto should have opposed BBI through referendumn. Thankfully Ruto does not listen to you.
I opine Ruto should handle Kiambu with care.

Kiambu exceptionalist like Nowayaha.
He thinks we should stop press because he is struggling against Wa-matangi.
And that presidency will be won or lost in Kiambu.
Wake up. Jomo Kenyatta era died where Kiambu was everything in kenya politics with 5 ministers.
Kiambu and Kakamega are equal - there are 800k luhya votes in Kakamega - about the same 900k kikuyu votes in Kiambu - with 200k from other tribes.

[RV Pundit]

There is nothing exceptional about Kiambu.
Kiambu is just like most of old districts - with just a spill over from Nairobi metro now.
It's population is not singificantly different from say old Kericho - combined Bomet
Or Kakamega with old Vihiga.
Or Bungoma
or Meru with Tharaka
or Machakos with Makueni
or Kisii combined with Nyamira
or Nakuru district
or Name any of old large districts with 10 plus const.
or Homabay combined with Migori.

Im a realist , I dont come from Kiambu but I know how Kiambu is a major factor in elections. In 1992 by supporting Matiba from Muranga gave Moi a run for their money.
Being biggest County by population . Nairobi County does not count . . You win Kiambu you have a leverage as their electorate numbers is like Coast province by itself.
There is a reason in 2002 Moi went with Uhuru and not Kibaki though he had indicated in 98 Kibaki is good enough . He saw Kiambu as the factor.
You continue believing in your own "facts" as you believed Ruto should have opposed BBI through referendumn. Thankfully Ruto does not listen to you.
I opine Ruto should handle Kiambu with care.

Kiambu exceptionalist like Nowayaha.
He thinks we should stop press because he is struggling against Wa-matangi.
And that presidency will be won or lost in Kiambu.
Wake up. Jomo Kenyatta era died where Kiambu was everything in kenya politics with 5 ministers.
Kiambu and Kakamega are equal - there are 800k luhya votes in Kakamega - about the same 900k kikuyu votes in Kiambu - with 200k from other tribes.

[Githunguri]

There are more kikuyu counties than luhya counties...like in Nairobi you have 700k Kikuyu voters 900k kikuyu voters in Kiambu...1.6MN before we move to other counties...I don't think Kakamega bungoma vihiga counties can match that...that said there are more kikuyu voters in cosmopolitan areas like kajiado narok uasin ngishu Nakuru than there are luhyas...so comparing kiambu and Kakamega doesn't make sense.

[RV Pundit]

If you're talking Kikuyu or entire GEMA -  of course Luhyas are no match - that is why Ruto has extended his campaign to Coast/Ukambani/Matusa - where he is doing far better than Uhuru did.

In Luhya where Uhuru scored 4% in 2013 - Ruto worked very hard btw 2013-2017 - to see fortunes improve to 15% - this time round he is taking to 50% plus.
Luhyas are in 5 counties of western+Tranzoia - majority - and minority in Nandi, UasinGishu, Nakuru, Nairobi and Mombasa. Ruto will benefit from those too.

The same story in Coast - Uhuru was struggling to get 10% - Ruto helped again moved it - 15-20% by incessant campaigns - and now he is going to get 50% plus.

Go to random places like Turkana, West Pokot, Bomet (: - Isaac is in), Narok (Mau sorted) - and Ruto will improve.

Go to Ukambani - Ruto is set to improve significantly from Uhuru 10% - he has Muthamas and Mutuas - plus strong ground team with UDA the 2nd favourite camp.

In Short KIkuyu as much as it give you a boost is also an abastross  because Kikuyus or kenyattas are hated in many places like RV and Coast - due to land issues.

This is why you're hopeless against Ruto because as you concentrate on Mt kenya - Ruto is out there running rings around Raila - and the problem most of kikuyus are insular - thinking kenya starts and ends in Kiambu .

You will wake up after putting all effort to get 20% in Mt kenya to hate Ruto to find the entire country rallied behind him and he didnt even need GEMA votes

There are more kikuyu counties than luhya counties...like in Nairobi you have 700k Kikuyu voters 900k kikuyu voters in Kiambu...1.6MN before we move to other counties...I don't think Kakamega bungoma vihiga counties can match that...that said there are more kikuyu voters in cosmopolitan areas like kajiado narok uasin ngishu Nakuru than there are luhyas...so comparing kiambu and Kakamega doesn't make sense.

[RV Pundit]

Beating a workhorse like Ruto is impossible

While Uhuru was drinking btw 2013-2017 Ruto visited the country and sold Jubilee.
The result in 2017- Kenyatta increased his share of the vote in 41 of 47 counties, and lost ground in six.  Odinga increased his share of the vote in only 16 counties, and did worse in the remaining 31.

Some of biggest gains (Thank to Ruto) were
Marsabit   47.35   83.63   36.28
Nyamira   29.84   52.07   22.24
Bungoma   12.44   30.20   17.76
Kisii   27.78   43.22   15.43
Turkana   29.97   44.94   14.97
Taita Taveta   13.33   27.69   14.36
Wajir   39.05   51.20   12.16
Tana River   34.99   46.10   11.12
Kwale   14.15   23.71   9.56

Meanwhile Raila only improved in Western by getting maDVD, West pokot, Bomet and Meru

Vihiga   47.03   89.64   42.62   7.61   -50.23
Kakamega   64.80   87.36   22.56   8.84   -31.40
Bungoma   53.64   68.10   14.46   17.76   -32.23
West Pokot   23.10   34.44   11.34   -9.04   -2.30

https://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/newsite/blog/kenyas-2017-elections-preliminary-results-analysis-county/

[Githunguri]

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[RV Pundit]

Sounds of teeth gnashing before the tears flow

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