Author Topic: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50% (Read 3679 times)

RV Pundit · « **on:** June 14, 2022, 09:53:14 PM »

YuleMzee,

Projections - try to resize the images and repost.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #1 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:02:08 PM »

My take - we only disagree in Gusii and Western- Ruto scoring 25 percent pale ni kidogo sana. Elsewhere uko jonjo. Plus kidogo register will go up by a 1.4m.

yulemsee · « **Reply #2 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM »

Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #3 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:33:36 PM »

Okay this because you're Kisii and know what we dont know.
UDA have strong team in both Nyamira and Kissii county.
That will win many Mps seats.
You need to understand politics and it's regional issues.
Gusii apart from when it supported Nyachae can never vote even 70 percent for one candidate. 60 percent kwanza ni ngori;
Gusii politics and life revolve around it's 8 clans.
They are like 8 sub-tribes.
Each of those clans have their leaders.
So before you start - split Gusii into 8 - then start to give pieces to each candidate.
As for Raila winning Gusii - there are like 40 percent of Gusii who are diehard Anti-Raila (Luo).

Quote from: yulemsee on June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM

Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #4 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:39:57 PM »

As for Kakamega - Malala and Khawale are clear front runners for governors and senate - but somehow people will give Raila 75 percent of the vote. The same with maDVD - his dependable maragoli who are 50 percent of Vihiga - will always go where maDVD go.

Those are BASICs.

RV Heavy Hitter! · « **Reply #5 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:40:44 PM »

Quote from: RV Pundit on June 14, 2022, 10:33:36 PM

Okay this because you're Kisii and know what we dont know.
UDA have strong team in both Nyamira and Kissii county.
That will win many Mps seats.
You need to understand politics and it's regional issues.
Gusii apart from when it supported Nyachae can never vote even 70 percent for one candidate. 60 percent kwanza ni ngori;
Gusii politics and life revolve around it's 8 clans.
They are like 8 sub-tribes.
Each of those clans have their leaders.
So before you start - split Gusii into 8 - then start to give pieces to each candidate.
As for Raila winning Gusii - there are like 40 percent of Gusii who are diehard Anti-Raila (Luo).

Quote from: yulemsee on June 14, 2022, 10:20:58 PM
Thanks.
Will update registred voters once IEBC updates, then do final tweek
I have been generous in Kisii & Nyamira, Ruto will get less than 15%. Kakamega, Vihiga & Busia I have given him benefit of doubt.

I think he is right. Also Gusii here in the US are just like Luos. Very rare to find pro Ruto Gusii I mean as rare as finding a Kikuyu who is pro Raila!

RV Pundit · « **Reply #6 on:** June 14, 2022, 10:47:42 PM »

That is always the case. In fact last time I got Gusii totally wrong - by 20 percent in Nyamira - where Jubilee beat Raila - and in Kisii it was very close..Jubilee had 43 percent. Gusii abroad are like Gusii in Nairobi or Mombasa. Or Luhyas in Nairobi or Urban areas. They total misaligned with rural gusii where everything is clan. Outside Gusii they try to cut a united front. Internally and in Kisii they are quite a quarrelsome bunch.

I have been modelling gusii for donkey years - in 2007 - you would think ODM would win everything - same for 2013 - 2017. 2013 they didnt even win one Mp seat...

I can tell you there is almost 40 percent of Gusii who are anti-Raila - for like 20yrs (actually from 1990). Those are not about to change their voting patterns.

Quote from: RV Heavy Hitter! on June 14, 2022, 10:40:44 PM

I think he is right. Also Gusii here in the US are just like Luos. Very rare to find pro Ruto Gusii I mean as rare as finding a Kikuyu who is pro Raila!

RV Pundit · « **Reply #7 on:** June 14, 2022, 11:01:10 PM »

Maybe Matiangi flipped this...but even at his best...Raila has never got 70 percent of Gusii...not in 2007 or 2013.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #8 on:** June 14, 2022, 11:06:10 PM »

Opinion polls wise - apart from Mizani - and maybe Tiffa I am not sure if anybody has released Gusii counties data - they just lumped as Nyanza

Mizani is talking of 35 versus 65 percent

RV Pundit · « **Reply #9 on:** June 15, 2022, 03:31:21 PM »

Ruto gusii tour today

Kenya Kwanza rally in Kenyenya, Bomachoge Borabu-Kisii County. pic.twitter.com/K9SLxjacOz
— ANC PARTY (@anc_party) June 15, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #10 on:** June 15, 2022, 04:57:28 PM »

Kenyenya, Kisii County. pic.twitter.com/BORjbU2slp
— United Democratic Alliance, UDA. (@UDAKenya) June 15, 2022

Githunguri · « **Reply #11 on:** June 15, 2022, 08:53:22 PM »

Nice Job Yule msee.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #12 on:** June 16, 2022, 06:16:11 PM »

Yule Mzee - you will be wrong in Gusii - Ruto lazima apite 30 percent

Thanked the people of Isecha in Kitutu Chache North, Nyakoe in Kitutu Chache South and Nyaguta in Nyaribari Chache, Kisii County, for approving our Bottom-Up Economic Plan that aims to uplift millions of ordinary Kenyans. pic.twitter.com/H3P3U738Q3
— William Samoei Ruto, PhD (@WilliamsRuto) June 16, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #13 on:** June 20, 2022, 05:48:08 PM »

Yule Mzee - Gusii Machogu - and Walter Nyambati of Nyamira are doing great. You said 15 percent

Our UDA Kisii Team led by Hon Ezekiel Machogu.

As our competitors throw stones and rely on deep state, the Hustler Nation is gathering votes. Kenya Kwanza and H.E William Ruto will win by a landslide, take that to the bank.

We are African and Africa is our Business.. pic.twitter.com/4NIZcrxjgz
— Ndindi Nyoro (@NdindiNyoro) June 20, 2022

yulemsee · « **Reply #14 on:** July 11, 2022, 05:23:59 PM »

Final......

RV Pundit · « **Reply #15 on:** July 11, 2022, 05:56:36 PM »

Umejaribu to find a path for Raila to win by 100k votes..you actually gave him 250k kalenjin votes while giving Ruto zero except in Migori where kuria will vote for him.Anyway come 9th August we will see just how wrong you got

yulemsee · « **Reply #16 on:** July 11, 2022, 06:18:02 PM »

Pin it, I may do one last tweek a week to elections. The 12% in Kalenjin land have always been there, they are the immigrants. I've since noticed that Ruto has some support in Gusii, I've also increased his nos. in Vihiga.
The delta between the winner and runners up will be around 3% maximum

RV Pundit · « **Reply #17 on:** July 11, 2022, 06:22:12 PM »

Isaac got Raila 10 percent in bomet...in Nandi and related it's luhya diaspora that gave Raila numbers.Anyway it sticked until 9th.

yulemsee · « **Reply #18 on:** July 12, 2022, 09:28:55 PM »

Two polls agree with me about the delta between winner and looser, it will be tight.
Tifa 3%
Radio Africa 1%

RV Pundit · « **Reply #19 on:** July 12, 2022, 09:42:28 PM »

Quote from: yulemsee on July 12, 2022, 09:28:55 PM

Two polls agree with me about the delta between winner and looser, it will be tight.
Tifa 3%
Radio Africa 1%

if you apply the tight with just expected turnout Ruto zoom out..you have had to do crazy somersault to get Raila ahead by mere less than 100k votes kicheko

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Author Topic: YuleMzee - 2022 Projection - 50% versus 50% (Read 3679 times)