Prof Charles Horsnby 51- 49%

[RV Pundit]

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Charles hornsby(Phd in kenya politics) is arguably (after yours truly) one most remarkable political scientist in matters Kenya post-independence politics despite just like me coming from CS/IT sector. Charles has studied kenya politics like no one else and his books are the most insightful take on kenya siasa.


Last election he called it to the dot - predicting Uhuru win of 54 percent - against Raila 46 percent or around.

This time he is saying it's too close to call but  with slim margin by Ruto.


http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

[RV Pundit]

Look like we differ in parliamentary contest - and governors - but he has taken time to do a proper job.

n the gubernatorial races - for many Kenyans just as important as the presidential race - the scales tilt slightly in Azimio's favour. I'm calling 24 for Azimio overall and 20 for Kenya Kwanza, with 3 unclear. This is because Jubilee has some locally important leaders (such as Ephraim Maina in NyerI) who have a chance of victory under their own brand without sending many votes Raila's way. I haven't calculated the Senatorial or Women representatives results yet but I expect them to be similar but with slightly more party ticket voting.

In Parliament, among the 290 elected MPs, today I'm calling 136 (47%) for Kenya Kwanza, 118 (41%) for Azimio and 36 (12%) not clear, favouring unaligned independents or (most common) seats I haven't reviewed in enough detail. Those will break I think for Azimio as they include several Western and Gusii seats where ODM should do well, plus some Northern and North-Eastern seats where Ruto does not have a strong candidate.*  So, again, overall, very close. In this election, everything matters.

[Nowayhaha]

He is wrong on many counties.
I repeat Ruto will win by 56%. Remember this come 10 Aug Morning .
56% It is.....

[KenyanPlato]

Hii kitu ni easy to rig. Raila will be declared before midnight on August 9th

[RV Pundit]

It would be nice if you can share you work - show how you think it will pan out county per county.

He is wrong on many counties.
I repeat Ruto will win by 56%. Remember this come 10 Aug Morning .
56% It is.....

[RV Pundit]

If it was Kenya of before yes - the rigging margin is attainable in Uganda - in Kenya - with all the reforms since 2007 - it very hard to overturn - elections.

Hii kitu ni easy to rig. Raila will be declared before midnight on August 9th

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I do tribal math. With the three largest Kenyan Kabilas on one side (Luhya, GEMA, and Kalenjins), it is hard for Jacon to break through. Uhuru was taken to the cleaners in 2002 because tribal numbers overwhelmed Kalenjins and divided GEMA. United RVGEMA is hard to beat alone, but once you add about 60-80% of Luhyas, it becomes a juggernaut. Ruto doing well among other Kabilas in the coastal region, Somalis, Maa, Samburu's, etc, is also a plus. I give him 58%. If rigging takes place it may come down to 54-55%. Take it or leave it!

[yulemsee]

Google sheets,

Just waiting for final voters register and final tweek mid July,
Hornsby has it very wrong in Western Kenya Kakamega & Vihiga, solidly baba. Bungoma & Tranzoia toss ups. Then Lamu (Ruto majority)

[RV Pundit]

Weka image otherwise you are going to harvest people emails

Google sheets,


Just waiting for final voters register and final tweek mid July,
Hornsby has it very wrong in Western Kenya Kakamega & Vihiga, solidly baba. Bungoma & Tranzoia toss ups. Then Lamu (Ruto majority)

[RV Pundit]

Yule Mzee - I have removed your link - please use image or something public - that dont lure people to open google spreadsheets.

[RV Pundit]

From proxy - I am getting blocked. Make it image and I will stick it

[yulemsee]

RV Pundit, I'm not very Tech Savvy. I have put access rights to anyone can view. Let me google how to convert to image I will try. Can you use one of your burner emails I give you full rights

[RV Pundit]

I have sticky a thread with PDF there - just resize the images.

RV Pundit, I'm not very Tech Savvy. I have put access rights to anyone can view. Let me google how to convert to image I will try. Can you use one of your burner emails I give you full rights