Pajero - 2022-THE NUMBERS AS THEY ARE-FINAL AZIMIO 54% KK 46%

[Pajero]

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For purposes of clarity and simplicity,data has been classified into 3 broad sections.Section 1 is Azimio strong hold.Section 2 is KK strong hold.Section 3 is the swing region.A strong hold is considered a region where a candidate ganners over 60% of the votes cast while a swing region is where results are even or rather difference between two leading candidates is less than 10%.

1.KK strong holds-Here we have a total of 18 counties (10 all Gema) and (7 pure kalenjin) counties that KK are expected to sweep with of 60% of total votes cast.
2.Azimio strong holds-Here we also have a total of 17 counties that Azimio is expected to sweep with over 60% of total votes cast.(6 Nyanza counties,Busia,Machakos,Kitui,Makueni,Mombasa,Kilifi,Taita taveta,Kakamega and all 4 NE counties.)
4.Swing areas-under this category,we have 14 counties spread across that results are expected to be even or rather the difference to be marginally small.(Narok,Kajiado,Vihiga,Bungoma,Samburu,Transnzoia,Isiolo,Lamu,TanaRiver,Kwale and Turkana).

KK STRONGHOLDS
GEMA COUNTIES
Meru-780,858
Tharaka-234618
Embu-337627
Nyeri-492040
Kirinyaga-378,410
Muranga-628,416
Kiambu-1,293,309
Nyandarua-362,357
Laikipia-265,842
Nakuru-1,050,367
TOTAL 5,558,178
EXPECTED TURNOUT 75%-4,168,633
KK-2,709,611(68%)
AZIMIO-1,333,962 (31%)

KALENJIN COUNTIES
Uasingishu-530,993
Nandi-402,856
Baringo-271,997
Elgeyo-211,352
Bomet-370,399
Kericho-429,288
West pokot-214,574
TOTAL 2,431,459
EXPECTED TURNOUT-78%-1,896,538
KK-1.763,780 (93%)
AZIMIO-132,757 (7%)


AZIMIO STRONGHOLD
NYANZA COUNTIES
Homabay-537,108
Siaya-518,056
Kisumu-616,871
Migori-454,954
Kisii-638,603
Nyamira-316,389
TOTAL 3,081,981
EXPECTED TURNOUT-79%-2,434,764
KK-194,781(12%)
AZIMIO 2,239,982 (88%)

UKAMBANI COUNTIES
Kitui-532,267
Machakos-690,243
Makueni-474,493
TOTAL-1,697,003
EXPECTED TURNOUT-1,323,662 (78%)
KK-198,549(15%)
AZIMIO-1.125,112(85%)

COAST COUNTIES
Mombasa-654,063
Kilifi-582631
Taita taveta-179,234
TOTAL-1,415,928
EXPECTED TURNOUT -920,353 (65%)
KK-276,105 (30%)
AZIMIO-644,248 (70%)

WESTERN COUNTIES
Kakamega-843,139
Busia-406,569
TOTAL 1,247,708
EXPECTED TURNOUT-935,781 (75%)
KK-319,523 (35%)
AZIMIO-616,354 (65%)

NORTHERN COUNTIES
Mandera- 211,098
Garissa-207,435
Wajir-196,466
Marsarbit-164,864
TOTAL-779,863
EXPECTED TURNOUT-483,515 (62%)
KK-183,735 (38%)
AZIMIO-299,799 (62%)

NAIROBI-2,505,199-EXPECTED VOTES (75%)-1,878,899.
KK-751,599 (41%)
AZIMIO 1,127,339 (59%)

SWING COUNTIES
Narok-397,618
Kajiado-463,546
Bungoma-644,233
Vihiga-304,755
Turkana-241,583
Samburu-98,081
Transnzoia-395,741
Kwale-320,782
Lamu-79,157
Tana River-137,605
Isiolo-86,665
TOTAL-3,383,874
EXPECTED TURNOUT-2,301,034 (68%)
KK-1,035,465 (48%)
AZIMIO-1,265,568 (52%)

TOTAL FOR KK-7,433,148 (46%)
TOTAL FOR AZIMIO-8,785,121 (54%)

[Githunguri]

 Very correct analysis.Raila is between 54%-56%.

It's a replica of 2002 election.

[Pajero]

Yes,but there could be slight changes depending on how gema plays out.

[RV Pundit]

First let me sticky this - so Azimio guys here can have something to look forward to. I will analyse the figures in short while

[Pajero]

Fanya haraka and be objective please,hapana bebwa na feelings and emotions.

[RV Pundit]

Nimekusadia hapa - took it to excel - Ruto led. I dont even have to critique the figures. Until you find me formulae where Ruto loses.

Bye Bye

Counties   Reg Votes   Raila   Ruto    Turn out   Total Cast   Raila   Ruto
Meru   780,858   31   68   75   585644   181550   398238
Tharaka   234618   31   68   75   175964   54549   119656
Embu   337627   31   68   75   253220   78498   172190
Nyeri   492040   31   68   75   369030   114399   250940
Kirinyaga   378,410   31   68   75   283808   87980   192989
Muranga   628,416   31   68   75   471312   146107   320492
Kiambu   1,293,309   31   68   75   969982   300694   659588
Nyandarua   362,357   31   68   75   271768   84248   184802
Laikipia   265,842   31   68   75   199382   61808   135580
Nakuru   1,050,367   31   68   75   787775   244210   535687
Uasingishu   530,993   7   93   78   414175   28992   385183
Nandi   402,856   7   93   78   314228   21996   292232
Baringo   271,997   7   93   78   212158   14851   197307
Elgeyo   211,352   7   93   78   164855   11540   153315
Bomet   370,399   7   93   78   288911   20224   268687
Kericho   429,288   7   93   78   334845   23439   311406
West pokot   214,574   7   93   78   167368   11716   155652
Homabay   537,108   88   12   79   424315   373397   50918
Siaya   518,056   88   12   79   409264   360152   49112
Kisumu   616,871   88   12   79   487328   428849   58479
Migori   454,954   88   12   79   359414   316284   43130
Kisii   638,603   88   12   79   504496   443956   60540
Nyamira   316,389   88   12   79   249947   219953   29994
Kitui   532,267   85   15   78   415168   352893   62275
Machakos   690,243   85   15   78   538390   457632   80759
Makueni   474,493   85   15   78   370105   314589   55516
Mombasa   654,063   70   30   65   425141   297599   127542
Kilifi   582631   70   30   65   378710   265097   113613
Taita taveta   179,234   70   30   65   116502   81551   34951
Kakamega   843,139   65   35   75   632354   411030   221324
Busia   406,569   65   35   75   304927   198203   106724
Mandera   211,098   68   32   62   130881   88999   41882
Garissa   207,435   68   32   62   128610   87455   41155
Wajir   196,466   68   32   62   121809   82830   38979
Marsarbit   164,864   68   32   62   102216   69507   32709
NAIROBI   2,505,199   41   59   75   1878899   770349   1108550
Narok   397,618   48   52   68   270380   129782   140598
Kajiado   463,546   48   52   68   315211   151301   163910
Bungoma   644,233   48   52   68   438078   210277   227801
Vihiga   304,755   48   52   68   207233   99472   107761
Turkana   241,583   48   52   68   164276   78852   85424
Samburu   98,081   48   52   68   66695   32014   34681
Transnzoia   395,741   48   52   68   269104   129170   139934
Kwale   320,782   48   52   68   218132   104703   113429
Lamu   79,157   48   52   68   53827   25837   27990
Tana River   137,605   48   52   68   93571   44914   48657
Isiolo   86,665   48   52   68   58932   28287   30645
               16398340   8141735   8212926

[RV Pundit]

I have edited the title to reflect the mathematical correctness

Now once you figure out another formulae let me know.

I am not going to bother with obvious problems in many areas and in turnout.

I will release my final final MOASS in few weeks.

Still have few problematic areas where I need to know MPs and Governors - plus get  more clarity on few areas.

[RV Pundit]

Sorry I transposed the last one - now Raila led by 50 and Ruto 49.5% . Congratultions!!!!!!!!!!!! You really tried - managing to beat Ruto by 100K votes sio Mchezo - you literally gave Raila led everywhere except in kalenjin 7 and 10 Mt kenya 

Narok   397,618   52   48   68   270380   140598   129782      
Kajiado   463,546   52   48   68   315211   163910   151301      
Bungoma   644,233   52   48   68   438078   227801   210277      
Vihiga   304,755   52   48   68   207233   107761   99472      
Turkana   241,583   52   48   68   164276   85424   78852      
Samburu   98,081   52   48   68   66695   34681   32014      
Transnzoia   395,741   52   48   68   269104   139934   129170      
Kwale   320,782   52   48   68   218132   113429   104703      
Lamu   79,157   52   48   68   53827   27990   25837      
Tana River   137,605   52   48   68   93571   48657   44914      
Isiolo   86,665   52   48   68   58932   30645   28287      
               16398340   8227956   8126705   0.501755422   0.495580955

[RV Pundit]

Pajero-For Raila to beat Ruto by 0.5 percent - 100K votes- he must lead in every country - with low turnout in Mt Kenya and Kalenjin

Pajero reckon Raila will lead in 30 counties.

Homabay   537,108   88   12   79   424315   373397   50918      
Siaya   518,056   88   12   79   409264   360152   49112      
Kisumu   616,871   88   12   79   487328   428849   58479      
Migori   454,954   88   12   79   359414   316284   43130      
Kisii   638,603   88   12   79   504496   443956   60540      
Nyamira   316,389   88   12   79   249947   219953   29994      
Kitui   532,267   85   15   78   415168   352893   62275      
Machakos   690,243   85   15   78   538390   457632   80759      
Makueni   474,493   85   15   78   370105   314589   55516      
Mombasa   654,063   70   30   65   425141   297599   127542      
Kilifi   582631   70   30   65   378710   265097   113613      
Taita taveta   179,234   70   30   65   116502   81551   34951      
Kakamega   843,139   65   35   75   632354   411030   221324      
Busia   406,569   65   35   75   304927   198203   106724      
Mandera   211,098   68   32   62   130881   88999   41882      
Garissa   207,435   68   32   62   128610   87455   41155      
Wajir   196,466   68   32   62   121809   82830   38979      
Marsarbit   164,864   68   32   62   102216   69507   32709      
NAIROBI   2,505,199   41   59   75   1878899   770349   1108550      
Narok   397,618   52   48   68   270380   140598   129782      
Kajiado   463,546   52   48   68   315211   163910   151301      
Bungoma   644,233   52   48   68   438078   227801   210277      
Vihiga   304,755   52   48   68   207233   107761   99472      
Turkana   241,583   52   48   68   164276   85424   78852      
Samburu   98,081   52   48   68   66695   34681   32014      
Transnzoia   395,741   52   48   68   269104   139934   129170      
Kwale   320,782   52   48   68   218132   113429   104703      
Lamu   79,157   52   48   68   53827   27990   25837      
Tana River   137,605   52   48   68   93571   48657   44914      
Isiolo   86,665   52   48   68   58932   30645   28287      
               16398340   8227956   8126705   0.501755422   0.495580955
               101251            

[Pajero]

What have you done with my data,I don't understand.why are you corrupting it,how come your final total differs with mine.i expected you to counter me the way I have put them,region by region.from there we can start engaging.

[Pajero]

Yes,Raila will lead in 27 counties,it's no brainer.

[Pajero]

Off to Nyayo for manifesto launch,digest and get back.

[Pajero]

PUNDITO DONT EDIT MY TITLE,WHO GAVE YOU POWERS TO DO THAT.THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE.MEMBERS IS THIS CORRECT.PUNDITO I GIVE YOU 2 HOURS TO RESTORE MY TITLE OR ELSE I MOVE OUT OF THIS FORUM.

[Pajero]

OPINIONS MUST BE RESPECTED.

[RV Pundit]

I respected your opinion. The best you should do is thank me for correcting mathematical errors; yaani unalia instead of saying asante; then we continue from there.

THIS simple basic maths. I used your own figures.

OPINIONS MUST BE RESPECTED.

[RV Pundit]

Redo the maths wacha hasira

What have you done with my data,I don't understand.why are you corrupting it,how come your final total differs with mine.i expected you to counter me the way I have put them,region by region.from there we can start engaging.

[RV Pundit]

Those are your numbers; You cannot run away from them

PUNDITO DONT EDIT MY TITLE,WHO GAVE YOU POWERS TO DO THAT.THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE.MEMBERS IS THIS CORRECT.PUNDITO I GIVE YOU 2 HOURS TO RESTORE MY TITLE OR ELSE I MOVE OUT OF THIS FORUM.

[Pajero]

Which mathematical error pundito,are you mad,my summation  is correct,what do you take me for.

[RV Pundit]

This excel - the first thing I did was to just put your figures through sanity test - and the figures were mathematical wrong.

Attached is your excel - download and continue from there - if you want this conversation to continue - or just admit that Raila CANNOT beat Ruto.

There is really no need for all these - facts are very stubborn things. Your own skewed data has buried you.

Which mathematical error pundito,are you mad,my summation  is correct,what do you take me for.

[Pajero]

Pundito,take a pen and a paper and do your summation again,your excel work sheet iko shida.

KK
2709611
1763770
194781
198549
276105
319523
183735
751599
1035465
TOTAL 7433148

AZIMIO
1333962
132757
2239982
1125112
644248
616248
299799
1127339
1265568
TOTAL 8785121

WHO IS MAD HERE