Political statement for period of 2017 to 2022

[RV Pundit]

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Executive summary.
After five years of campaigning, strategic and tactical maneuvers, alliances, and re-alliances, heavy investment of time, money and energy here is the computation of the gained and lost votes by Raila and Ruto - the main protagonist of next election.

 Ruto would declare a gross loss of -208,052 votes.
 Raila would declare a gross loss of -742,332 votes.
 

Qualified opinion
If Raila bags Kalonzo - there is very likelihood of that happening
Raila will be at gross profit of 292K
Ruto will still be at gross  loss 208K

Ruto opening balance was positive 1,441,660K.
Raila had negative balance of  - 1,441,660K.

Net Profit/Loss

Ruto position remain very good despite loosing 200k votes to Uhuru & his state machinery-  now he  is 1,240,000 more votes than competition. Ruto will be about 0.5m votes above 50% threshold.

Raila with Uhuru, deep state and all the advantages he has enjoyed the last five years - even if he bags Kalonzo - would only have managed to improve his position by 300,000 votes (if he bags Kalonzo) - or would have lost (as of today) - 700,000 mores votes than he had in 2017.

Conclusion.

Beating Ruto remain only possible with brazen rigging.

Data later.


 

[RV Pundit]

                   Total   Uhuru   Raila 17   Cast   Uhuru 17   Raila 17   Others   Ruto   Raila   MPs   Ruto Net Gain/Loss   Total Net Loss   Total Profit/Loss   Total Profit/Loss
   MOMBASA            580,644   99,190   238,809   342,337   29   70   1   136935   205402   ODM            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               28.97%   69.76%   100.00%            40.00%   60.00%      11%   -9.76%   37,760   -33,412         
   KWALE            281,102   43,694   138,565   185,204   24   75   2   83342   101862   UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               23.59%   74.82%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      21%   -19.82%   39,652   -36,707            
   KILIFI            508,425   49,575   274,179   327,831   15   84   1         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               15.12%   83.63%   100.00%            40.00%   60.00%      25%   -23.63%   81,564   -77,466            
   TANA RIVER            118,338   40,115   45,067   86,920   46   52   2         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               46.15%   51.85%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -1%   3.15%   -1,000   2,738      
   LAMU            69,793   23,905   24,421   49,214   49   50   2         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               48.57%   49.62%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -4%   5.38%   -1,757   2,648         
   PERCENTAGE (%)               27.62%   70.99%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      17%   -15.99%   19,584   -18,018         
   GARISSA            163,350   54,783   54,356   113,236   48   48   4         Jubilee            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               48.38%   48.00%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -3%   7.00%   -3,827   7,927         
   WAJIR            162,912   60,508   52,362   118,688   51   44   5         Jubilee            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               50.98%   44.12%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -6%   10.88%   -7,098   12,913         
   MANDERA            175,650   112,456   17,984   135,681   83   13   4         Jubilee            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               82.88%   13.25%   100.00%                     -83%   -13.25%   -112,452   -17,978         
   MARSABIT            141,730   92,696   16,003   110,839   84   14   2         Jubilee            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               83.63%   14.44%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -39%   40.56%   -42,817   44,956            
   ISIOLO            75,355   26,746   18,931   54,112   49   35   16         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               49.43%   34.98%   100.00%            45.00%   55.00%      -4%   20.02%   -2,397   10,833         
   MERU            702,776   482,580   55,602   543,327   89   10   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               88.82%   10.23%   100.00%            70.00%   30.00%      -19%   19.77%   -102,254   107,416         
   THARAKA - NITHI            213,157   162,529   10,355   174,476   93   6   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               93.15%   5.93%   100.00%            75.00%   30.00%      -18%   24.07%   -31,667   41,996         
   EMBU            309,731   231,350   17,549   251,182   92   7   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               92.10%   6.99%   100.00%            85.00%   15.00%      -7%   8.01%   -17,834   20,120            
   KITUI            474,563   64,652   287,293   359,560   18   80   2         WIPER            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               17.98%   79.90%   100.00%            25.00%   75.00%      7%   -4.90%   25,241   -17,618            
   MACHAKOS            620,363   82,629   380,018   469,665   18   81   1         WIPER            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               17.59%   80.91%   100.00%            35.00%   75.00%      17%   -5.91%   81,769   -27,757      
   MAKUENI            423,434   27,388   301,126   332,461   8   91   1         WIPER            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               8.24%   90.57%   100.00%            25.00%   75.00%      17%   -15.57%   55,720   -51,764         
   NYANDARUA            335,696   286,593   2,286   289,514   99   1   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               98.99%   0.79%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      -24%   24.21%   -69,454   70,091         
   NYERI            457,197   389,410   4,735   395,936   98   1   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               98.35%   1.20%   100.00%            85.00%   15.00%      -13%   13.80%   -52,857   54,639         
   KIRINYAGA            349,970   297,652   3,120   301,856   99   1   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               98.61%   1.03%   100.00%            65.00%   35.00%      -34%   33.97%   -101,454   102,540         
   MURANG'A            587,222   498,248   9,122   509,006   98   2   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               97.89%   1.79%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      -23%   23.21%   -116,511   118,140      
   KIAMBU            1,181,076   912,588   69,190   985,152   93   7   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               92.63%   7.02%   100.00%            65.00%   35.00%      -28%   27.98%   -272,197   275,646            
   TURKANA            191,435   62,611   96,336   160,912   39   60   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               38.91%   59.87%   100.00%            50.00%   50.00%      11%   -9.87%   17,845   -15,882            
   WEST POKOT            180,241   97,620   52,120   151,086   65   34   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               64.61%   34.50%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      10%   -9.50%   15,698   -14,353
   SAMBURU            82,794   31,746   31,615   63,952   50   49   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               49.64%   49.44%   100.00%            50.00%   50.00%      0%   0.56%   230   358
   TRANS NZOIA            339,715   110,489   134,312   247,726   45   54   1         FORDK            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               44.60%   54.22%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      30%   -29.22%   75,309   -72,386      
   UASIN GISHU            450,159   265,704   72,378   341,575   78   21   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               77.79%   21.19%   100.00%            85.00%   15.00%      7%   -6.19%   24,628   -21,143
    ELGEYO/MARAKWET            180,679   138,634   7,102   146,507   95   5   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               94.63%   4.85%   100.00%            96.00%   4.00%      1%   -0.85%   2,007   -1,245
   NANDI            346,102   235,243   33,848   270,895   87   12   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               86.84%   12.49%   100.00%            90.00%   10.00%      3%   -2.49%   8,560   -6,745         
   BARINGO            232,311   161,423   27,748   190,411   85   15   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               84.78%   14.57%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      -10%   10.43%   -18,622   19,860         
   LAIKIPIA            246,693   177,772   20,694   199,502   89   10   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               89.11%   10.37%   100.00%            75.00%   25.00%      -14%   14.63%   -28,150   29,187            
   NAKURU            949,971   639,297   110,857   754,405   85   15   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               84.74%   14.69%   100.00%            70.00%   30.00%      -15%   15.31%   -111,199   115,499         
   NAROK            341,761   149,376   129,360   281,961   53   46   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               52.98%   45.88%   100.00%            65.00%   40.00%      12%   -5.88%   33,892   -16,579         
   KAJIADO            411,267   186,481   138,405   326,275   57   42   0         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               57.15%   42.42%   100.00%            60.00%   40.00%      3%   -2.42%   9,299   -7,896      
   KERICHO            375,691   272,974   19,448   294,215   93   7   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               92.78%   6.61%   100.00%            95.00%   5.00%      2%   -1.61%   6,532   -4,737      
   BOMET            322,024   229,599   31,822   263,777   87   12   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               87.04%   12.06%   100.00%            95.00%   5.00%      8%   -7.06%   20,997   -18,623         
   KAKAMEGA            743,929   63,399   483,157   553,377   11   87   1         UDA            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               11.46%   87.31%   100.00%   87.31%   87.31%   87.31%   50.00%   50.00%   87.31%   39%   -37.31%   213,271   -206,465         
   VIHIGA            272,415   18,275   179,140   200,392   9   89   1         ANC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               9.12%   89.39%   100.00%            50.00%   50.00%      41%   -39.39%   81,920   -78,934
   BUNGOMA            559,866   126,475   284,786   418,612   30   68   2         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               30.21%   68.03%   100.00%            70.00%   30.00%      40%   -38.03%   166,566   -159,198      
   BUSIA            351,087   34,239   239,296   275,636   12   87   1         ODM            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               12.42%   86.82%   100.00%            25.00%   75.00%      13%   -11.82%   34,675   -32,58
   PERCENTAGE (%)               0.66%   99.11%   100.00%            2.00%   98.00%      1%   -1.11%   5,080   -4,208         
   KISUMU            539,593   7,411   369,963   378,903   2   98   0         ODM            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               1.96%   97.64%   100.00%            2.00%   98.00%      0%   0.36%   152   1,364         
   PERCENTAGE (%)               0.49%   99.34%   100.00%            2.00%   98.00%      2%   -1.34%   6,085   -5,400      
   MIGORI            388,700   46,112   274,161   322,261   14   85   1                     
   PERCENTAGE (%)               14.31%   85.07%   100.00%            20.00%   80.00%      6%   -5.07%   18,337   -16,339         
   KISII            546,682   174,213   223,155   403,665   43   55   2         ODM            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               43.16%   55.28%   100.00%            35.00%   65.00%      -8%   9.72%   -32,939   39,236         
   PERCENTAGE (%)               52.00%   46.49%   100.00%            40.00%   60.00%      -12%   13.51%   -24,580   27,673         
   NAIROBI CITY            2,251,929   791,291   828,826   1,629,894   49   51   1         TCTC            
   PERCENTAGE (%)               48.55%   50.85%   100.00%            40.00%   60.00%      -9%   9.15%   -139,356   149,135
                                                      
                                                   -208,052   291,481

[RV Pundit]

Raila biggest gains will be in
1)Kiambu - almost 275k
2) Nairobi  - almost 150k
3) Nakuru, Mandera,Muranga, Kirinyanga & Meru - above 100-150k

Ruto biggest gains
1) Kakamega - 230k
2) Bungoma - 160K
3) Vihiga, Kilifi, Tranzoi, Mombasa - 80-100K.

Ruto has many small gains all over the country and will only do worse than Uhuru in GEMA & GUSII