Raila sabotage Gumbo...takes back Owino

[RV Pundit]

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Owino will go back to police service...to join Matiangi deep police state

Ex-spokesperson Owino quits governor race, heads back to police service https://t.co/sCl800t8Ha

— TheStarKenya (@TheStarKenya) May 18, 2022

[Nefertiti]

Look like Orengo not Raila who has big fish to fry. It a good move but smell like ukora - how does such partisan candidate return to police? Gumbo back to square zero - he need to look for new DG - hope not time- barred.

Anyway this is ODM zone. Roba party should stick to NEP.

[Nefertiti]

These big civil servants usually get humbled on ground despite cash and hubris. Matian'gi smelled trouble from far.. not square with political animals.

[RV Pundit]

Gumbo is dead - in fact for weeks Raila had been putting pressure on UDM to withdrew their candidature.
Orengo maybe unpopular as far as dev goes - but ODM force in Siaya will overcome reason.
Only Kidero now remain a threat in Luo Nyanza - Kidero is independent - and has money.
Otherwise Siaya join Kisumu and Migori for surebet for ODM
Busia looks also shoe-in.
And that is pretty much it.
Mombasa has gone up the smoke.

So Raila is looking at 4 counties to continue milking when he loses the presidency.

[Nefertiti]

I don't think Raila is looking to milk anyone. Azimio is his new party. It an awesome deal for Raila who at 80 has little to lose.

You need to understand Raila is 77... Moi retired at 78. Karua could easily become Samia Suluhu. If Ruto cannot resign despite matharao for small chance Uhuru drops dead at 60 - you can understand why women & Gema are very excited by Karua prospects.

If Raila loses - he just retires. Ruto if he loses goes fight with Babu Owino in parliament.

[Nefertiti]

Obvious UDA will be biggest individual party. But without power in principle-free Kenya jungle... Mdvd's will be first out the door. Before Gachagua and Kuria eat Ruto for breakfast.

[RV Pundit]

Raila is working on plan A and B. Ruto the same - Plan A (gov) and Plan B(opposition).
Plan B - opposition - that is why he is worried about governor battle.
Raila milks governors where he has influence.
Milk - ask for money or tenders - otherwise ODM party make life difficult for you through MCAs.
ODM is now weak - look like they will be luckly if they get 8 governors.
Nairobi is gone, Mombasa is going, that leaves them with Kisumu - as juciest.
Sonko should be careful in Mombasa - because Raila will not allow Wiper to fill - if Kalonzo wants to come back - they will tell him to drop Mombasa.
I dont think Raila want to lose Nairobi and Mombasa.

I don't think Raila is looking to milk anyone. Azimio is his new party. It an awesome deal for Raila who at 80 has little to lose.

You need to understand Raila is 77... Moi retired at 78. Karua could easily become Samia Suluhu. If Ruto cannot resign despite matharao for small chance Uhuru drops dead at 60 - you can understand why women & Gema are very excited by Karua prospects.

If Raila loses - he just retires. Ruto if he loses goes fight with Babu Owino in parliament.

[RV Pundit]

It will be impossible for Raila (if he was to win) to govern with Ruto almost 200mps. maDVD will be lucky to get 10mps. And so will Ford-K. Majority of MPs will be UDA.

In my rought MOAS - UDA almost sure bet is 160mps - and they are in play in another 70 where it tight competition (Gusii, NEP, Nairobi, Coast, Western) - and they can get another 30 percent of that 70.

So you're looking at UDA controlling 190-200Mps. ANC 10-12. Ford-K 5-10. Kalonzo 15-20. Uhuru 20-30(Oparanya may spoil the party in the sleeping NEP - as Finance Upya slush fund is gone). Raila 50-60. Independents & small parties maybe 20-30.

Obvious UDA will be biggest individual party. But without power in principle-free Kenya jungle... Mdvd's will be first out the door. Before Gachagua and Kuria eat Ruto for breakfast.

[Nefertiti]

Without power it really comes to nothing. UDA is big party bound by zero principles akin to ODM 2007.

Obviously if Ruto wins - UDA morph into Kanu baba na mama. 40 years.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah without power - it become difficult to keep them - but it also make gov job harder - they have to bribe mps for every vote - so governing becomes very hard.

Without speakers - it going to be chaotic - to govern.

Honestly I dont know how Azimio intend to govern with 100mps - when Kenya kwanza will be boasting more than 200 mps.

That tell you they simply cannot win election.

Without power it really comes to nothing. UDA is big party bound by zero principles akin to ODM 2007.

Obviously if Ruto wins - UDA morph into Kanu baba na mama. 40 years.