Kalonzo has to accept to take something less than DPORK
He has refused since 2012 to hear anything less.
Ruto is forthright and upfront - he tells you early - so you and he also avoid suprises at worse time.
Raila promised Kalonzo everything - everytime - lying to him almost at will
In fact he told him in 2013 - win or lose - you run next time - did the same in 2017 - the changed names of coalition.
Now it obvious DPORK is out of the table from both side.
He is going to be thinking the 3rd best place.
And how do it.
Pre-election with Azimio or Kenya Kwanza.
Post-election with whoever if he can force a run-off.
Run-off his his best move forward if they can force it somehow
Ruto is very strong ....and has yet to engage full gears to nails the last few numbers.
So run-off could end up in the wind again.
So he is really has no options but listen from offers from both sides
In Kenya Kwanza - there is already MaDVD+Weta taking 30 percent - GEMA the same - so it would have to be regonitiated - for luhya to go down 25, Ruto side to drop 15 - and give him 20 percemt
Raila can and will promise anything but has no intention of respecting leave alone honouring Kalonzo.
If I was Kalonzo - I would say Ruto tosha - Ruto goes to 63 percent like Kibaki - and election ends.
Ruto can give him the campaign money as compensation.
If he say Raila tosha - it the usual- no guarantee they can beat Ruto- without 50 percent of GEMA.
The Maths is Easy to Run.
So you would be signing a deal for 3rd time in the bush
Best move forward...
Ask Kenya Kwanza to create for him 20 percent - 3-4 ministers - become maDVD deputy & foreign affairs minister, get all Ruto campaign finances, and UDA to withdraw all candidates competing in Ukambani. Completely RISK FREE MOVE. This would be 2002 Move.
Next best move ... Go for run-off and force either side to give him 40 percent or they forget it. This would be 2007 Move.
Next go back to Azimio...2013/2017 Move and risk a run against united GEMA+RV machine - Risk losing Ukambani as people see he's become too much of embarrassment
It's possible even Ruto has reserved no. 3 for him. Because it's not been given unconditionally to MDVD, with the 70% delivery condition (impossible). I don't see a good reason for Ruto to have such conditions for Mulembe nation apart from him hoping Mr. Melon will take it. Anyone else apart from Kaloi taking it from MaDVD seems like a disaster.
Anyhow, I don't know if these claims about time are true. Lets wait and see. Me? I don't see the strategy. Whether it's Azimio or KK, the best offer is no. 3. Take it and explain to your people polepole, or nenda kapumzike Kindiki-style. Whether now or after August, the offer is not getting better than no. 3, from either side.