Raila if he kept is coalition was short by 5-6 percent; of the national vote
He has leaked badly almost everywhere
Worse is Ukambani - 8-9 percent gone - of 10 percent kamba vote
MaDVD/Weta will dent - another 6-7 (MaDVD got 4 percent in 2013) percent.
Coast/Maa/Turkana - he will lose 1-2 percent
Lowest loss he is looking at 20 percent down.
Highest loss - we are 25 percent.
Total GEMA votes is 28 percent when they vote very well - otherwise could come down to 25 percent of national vote.
So on low turnout - he will need 100% of GEMA to win
And that is region where he is struggling very badly - 20 percent is not possible.
Raila 20 percent is Uhuru (Martha). I dont see any significant change in his fortunes in Mt kenya.
Ruto will beat him by 20 percent - It will be so overwhealming but expect court battles all the way to ICJ court, ICC, Africa Court and extra-terrestrial courts.
Raila is a sore loser. Martha is an ever sore loser.
With committed Kambas out, he will need nothing short of 75%. Ruto is widly popular among pastoralists and mainstream Kikuyus. With NASA stronghold gone, Ruto is cruising to the statehouse without obstacles. Martha, a ndia woman can only het 100K votes in central....