Mizani Africa - It too close to call

[RV Pundit]

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[Pajero]

All polls indicate Raila is climbing day by day,Ruto is either going down or climaxed.Anyway prepare for Raila presidency.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has to be worried - Western he need work; Coast work; Mt kenya looks great; Rift valley hapo the opinion polls are wrong -

All polls indicate Raila is climbing day by day,Ruto is either going down or climaxed.Anyway prepare for Raila presidency.

[RV Pundit]

They need to check their maths; I think they spread their sample too thin

Mizani are telling us that William Ruto is more popular in Central than Rift Valley.Well, while that might be true,I dispute strongly as his backyard won't watch their son fall.

— Migosi (@migosi_brian) May 10, 2022

[Nowayhaha]

Never believe in any opinion polls. Tell me one which predicted any Kenyan General Elections correctly.
It also leaves a lot of questions when they give results in so called regions instead of Counties. Kenyan Constituion does not recognize regions.

[audacityofhope]

Rift Valley region is not just Kales, Punda! There are maasai, Turukana, Nakuru is cosmopolitan.
Just like Nyanza region is not only Luos. There are Kisii and Kuria. Otherwise if it was minus these two, Raila would have 100%, not 76.3%.

  If you want to see the figure 99.9% then talk to your friends in Mizani to carve our a region called "North & South Rift Region" 

Ruto has to be worried - Western he need work; Coast work; Mt kenya looks great; Rift valley hapo the opinion polls are wrong -

All polls indicate Raila is climbing day by day,Ruto is either going down or climaxed.Anyway prepare for Raila presidency.

[RV Pundit]

I dont have a big problem...just few corrections. I dont oppose opinion polls like Nowayaha. Obviously Mizani and Tifa have their numbers..in some places they differ..in other they are about the same. I worry where they differ significantly. I have my trusty MOASS.

Rift Valley region is not just Kales, Punda! There are maasai, Turukana, Nakuru is cosmopolitan.
Just like Nyanza region is not only Luos. There are Kisii and Kuria. Otherwise if it was minus these two, Raila would have 100%, not 76.3%.

  If you want to see the figure 99.9% then talk to your friends in Mizani to carve our a region called "North & South Rift Region" 

Ruto has to be worried - Western he need work; Coast work; Mt kenya looks great; Rift valley hapo the opinion polls are wrong -

All polls indicate Raila is climbing day by day,Ruto is either going down or climaxed.Anyway prepare for Raila presidency.

[Pajero]

Next few months will be interesting to watch,30% remains the magic number for Raila in central.Soo far so good.

[Githunguri]

Who owns mizani?

Who financed the poll?

[RV Pundit]

Next week with settling of running mate it should be over.
We of course have problem where Tifa says 30% are refuse to answer or undecided while Mizani say only 4%.
Anyway next week is pretty much when everything settle down with selection of running mate.

Next few months will be interesting to watch,30% remains the magic number for Raila in central.Soo far so good.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Take poll from me. Ruto always wins. Lets meet on election night. Did the polls capture Amason Kingi and his over 500K coastal votes?

[Pajero]

Kingi will not help Ruto,he is light weight,Mudavadi and Wetangular too are not helping much.Western still remains Baba.Ruto is only assured of bearing Raila in Kalenjin Rift and and gema region.

[RV Pundit]

Kingi is good catch - because like Western - Ruto has been knocking at the door - and finally the window is open. Ruto doesnt need more than that. He just need  a small window and he will sell himself.

Mutua is not of much help - just helping Muthama in Machakos.

But combination of Kingi-Mvurya is great. Mvurya is reluctant leader - while Kingi is willing to play national politics. I expect Ruto to elevate Kingi above Mvurya. Mvurya is not a politician.

For now Ruto is just looking for rigging margins. Not a winning formulae like Raila.

So Ukambani we settle next week - Kalonzo decide that one.

Coast and Western and GEMA we will see most campaign now focused there.

Kingi will not help Ruto,he is light weight,Mudavadi and Wetangular too are not helping much.Western still remains Baba.Ruto is only assured of bearing Raila in Kalenjin Rift and and gema region.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Kingi will not help Ruto,he is light weight,Mudavadi and Wetangular too are not helping much.Western still remains Baba.Ruto is only assured of bearing Raila in Kalenjin Rift and and gema region.

That is the only region that made Uhuru win twice. When you have Gema and Kalenjin, you are in already. The difference is Ruto, beside having RVGEMA also has sizeable western, coast and anywhere in between. Ruto is wildly popular in Kenya. Get used to it. Raila, like as always, will lose big!

[Pajero]

Uhuru won with 99% of gema with a turn out of 85% in gema region.Your man us in real trouble because I dint see that turn out replicate itself,the very best will be 65%,of which Raila gets 40% of that.iko shida boss.

[RV Pundit]

But Ruto is doing better than Uhuru ever did outside GEMA. This simple logic you refuse to acknowledge. In 2013 - Uhuru for example scored 4% in entire western - if you remove Kalenjin of Mt elgon - he scored ZERO . If you look at opinion polls; Ruto is doing generally way better than Uhuru ever did in almost everywhere. That pretty much cover any deficit in GEMA that goes to Raila and those that dont turn up.
In fact based on several opinion polls - I see Ruto scored above 30 percent in all counties - except only Siaya, Kisumu and Homabay. That will be unprecedented national support.

Uhuru won with 99% of gema with a turn out of 85% in gema region.Your man us in real trouble because I dint see that turn out replicate itself,the very best will be 65%,of which Raila gets 40% of that.iko shida boss.

[Pajero]

He is adding about 10% of what uhuru got in 2017 in western,coast I think is about 5%.But you and me know that 10% of western or coast is not equivalent to 10% of gema.Thats what you and others in Tanga tanga are not seeing.If Raila gets 30% of gema,that's about 1.5M votes Viz a Viz 20% of western which is 300K votes.Marginally ,Raila is gaining more than Ruto.Wake up.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Uhuru won with 99% of gema with a turn out of 85% in gema region.Your man us in real trouble because I dint see that turn out replicate itself,the very best will be 65%,of which Raila gets 40% of that.iko shida boss.

Shida gani when DP is popular in Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, and Transnzoia. In Ukambai, Raila got 97%! This time, he will be lucky to get 70% and that difference is going to Ruto. Young people and churchgoers all of Kenya are deeply pro-Ruto. Anything Ruto loses in Mount Kenya will be compensated maradufu outside the mountain. Another thing Raila has failed 4 times twice with popular CORD AND NASA. With weak Azimio, Raila is more likely to lose for the fifth time. Huko na shida mingi sana Boss! Ruto never loses because he never takes anything for granted. In fact, Jubilee, or 70% of it, plans on a post-election deal with Ruto in the next few weeks. Uhuru is quiet for a reason. Raila may get NDP/LDP numbers this time around! Start kulia mapema! Project fail!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

He is adding about 10% of what uhuru got in 2017 in western,coast I think is about 5%.But you and me know that 10% of western or coast is not equivalent to 10% of gema.Thats what you and others in Tanga tanga are not seeing.If Raila gets 30% of gema,that's about 1.5M votes Viz a Viz 20% of western which is 300K votes.Marginally ,Raila is gaining more than Ruto.Wake up.

Ruto is gaining more than 40% in western and Raila is gaining max of 20% in the mountain...Start Kulia

[RV Pundit]

If Ruto add 10 more than Uhuru did in almost all non-gema (75 percent of the vote); that is clean 8 percent in national vote; Now if Raila add 30 of GEMA (25 percent with lower turnout); he too get about 8 percent; ZERO work done.

Bottomline; Nothing changes we have 45 versus 55:

Now that is without factoring KALOI - that is maths you need to solve within a week

If Poor Kaloi pull his troops to his own run or support Kenya Kwanza...you're done.

Then from next week Ruto will be competing with 50 plus one...not Raila

Kalonzo bring 8; GEMA brings 8 percent; You're in 45 percent if both faction cooperate - and you can work on rigging

You're going to 37 percent next week if you cannot keep Kalonzo in Azimio

He is adding about 10% of what uhuru got in 2017 in western,coast I think is about 5%.But you and me know that 10% of western or coast is not equivalent to 10% of gema.Thats what you and others in Tanga tanga are not seeing.If Raila gets 30% of gema,that's about 1.5M votes Viz a Viz 20% of western which is 300K votes.Marginally ,Raila is gaining more than Ruto.Wake up.