Martha Raila all look set

[RV Pundit]

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[RV Pundit]

In short Ruto wins by 60 percent.Rarua or Martharao trail with 40 percent

[RV Pundit]

Meanwhile this is now confirmed.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto meanwhile according to Moses kuria - Ruto has settled on mbeere  speaker Justin Moturi

[Githunguri]

Muturi will cost him votes doesnt appeal to GEMA

[RV Pundit]

Ruto is looking for GEMA candidate who can appeal to Non-GEMA. His biggest threat is rest of tribes seeing his ticket as Kikuyu-Kalenjin pingpong. Most people who support Raila - dont see any more merit in old sleeping man - but many just dont want the kikuyu-kalenjin hegemony going on.

Therefore Muturi and Kindiki look very good especially if Raila sobers up and pick Kalonzo. If he picks Karua - Ruto can pick anyone and win by huge margin - because Kamba fallout will be epic.

Kindiki is tharaka - and Muturi a mbeere- both are small tribes in GEMA who can be marketed almost as Non-GEMA while GEMA still feel it's part of it.

Muturi aces Kindiki when it comes to experience - he is already the number 3 in kenya as the NA Speaker.

Muturi will cost him votes doesnt appeal to GEMA

[Nowayhaha]

This is theory , similar to 2013 Theory that another Kikuyu cannot be elected as President.
Ruto will chose a Kikuyu. Muturi is a non factor last elected to parliament in 2002 and prior to that in a by election.
He lost 2013 election and by virtue of being a bossom friend of Uhuru was given speaker job.

Ruto is looking for GEMA candidate who can appeal to Non-GEMA. His biggest threat is rest of tribes seeing his ticket as Kikuyu-Kalenjin pingpong. Most people who support Raila - dont see any more merit in old sleeping man - but many just dont want the kikuyu-kalenjin hegemony going on.

Therefore Muturi and Kindiki look very good especially if Raila sobers up and pick Kalonzo. If he picks Karua - Ruto can pick anyone and win by huge margin - because Kamba fallout will be epic.

Kindiki is tharaka - and Muturi a mbeere- both are small tribes in GEMA who can be marketed almost as Non-GEMA while GEMA still feel it's part of it.

Muturi aces Kindiki when it comes to experience - he is already the number 3 in kenya as the NA Speaker.

Muturi will cost him votes doesnt appeal to GEMA

[RV Pundit]

At least you've climbed down from kiambu kikuyu
If Kikuyus had been as steadfast - with 90 percent support and turnout - Ruto wont be looking elsewhere.
The final list is clear Gachagua, Muturi, Kindiki and Ndidi Nyoro.
I dont know who Ruto will pick - but I'd take Moses Kuria seriously that Justin Muturi is the guy.
And he fits the bill for DPORK (not pork)- he is Mt kenya (kikuyu will be hard pressed to undo the GEMA alliance) - he is 10yrs speaker
And is really 3rd in line - if both Uhuru and Ruto were locked in a room - and they kill each other like is likely - Muturi become PORK.

Anyway I believe if Raila pick Martha - Ruto will also pick a Kikuyu.
If he picks Kalonzo - he will pick an easterner too.

Muturi and Uhuru - bring in a secret deal angle btw Ruto and Kenyattas - I dont buy this fallout 100 percent - part of me feel it's usual keep your enemies closer and your friends away.

And if I was Raila i would not listen to Uhuru - because he could be his biggest enemy - and this selection of Karua is part of finishing him. Uhuru knows Karua is an expired product in mt kenya politics, knows kamba nation will revolt and yet he is forcing Raila to pick her - meanwhile his friend or proxy or poodle - muturi - come from nowhere and overtake Ruto men...iko kitu.

This is theory , similar to 2013 Theory that another Kikuyu cannot be elected as President.
Ruto will chose a Kikuyu. Muturi is a non factor last elected to parliament in 2002 and prior to that in a by election.
He lost 2013 election and by virtue of being a bossom friend of Uhuru was given speaker job.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto is looking for GEMA candidate who can appeal to Non-GEMA. His biggest threat is rest of tribes seeing his ticket as Kikuyu-Kalenjin pingpong. Most people who support Raila - dont see any more merit in old sleeping man - but many just dont want the kikuyu-kalenjin hegemony going on.

Therefore Muturi and Kindiki look very good especially if Raila sobers up and pick Kalonzo. If he picks Karua - Ruto can pick anyone and win by huge margin - because Kamba fallout will be epic.

Kindiki is tharaka - and Muturi a mbeere- both are small tribes in GEMA who can be marketed almost as Non-GEMA while GEMA still feel it's part of it.

Muturi aces Kindiki when it comes to experience - he is already the number 3 in kenya as the NA Speaker.

Muturi will cost him votes doesn't appeal to GEMA

I don't think it will be Muturi. Muturi came very late to the table and not with conviction. He only came because Uhuru and Assminyoo had vanquished him. Kindiki looks like a better option if GEMA periphery is the game being played. He has been loyal to UDA since the inception, and to DP for almost a decade. I agree with Kalonzo not getting deputy, DP can even pick Micah Maritim or his brother Selina and win. My hunch is he will pick a mainstream okuyu like Ndindi or Kimani because Raila will also do the same. Okuyu is just too powerful to be ignored!

[Nefertiti]

when is Ruto unveiling senior MCA Ndindi.. or as usual waiting to counter Raila.

Face it: if it Karua - expect Waiguru or Wahome. If it PK - expect Ndindi. If it Munya - expect Kindiki or Muturi.

That how desperate Ruto remain for Mt Kenya.

[Nowayhaha]

RV , I do believe you are trying to measure all outcomes, However Real politics is different . Ruto as we speak will score good numbers in all Mt Kenya counties his lowest will be Kiambu ,Kiambu have some superiority complex which exibited itself in 1997,2002 and 2007 elections also its the County with the largest number of voters. Just like in 2013 when Ruto climbed down due to realpolitics that you require GEMA to win elections ,He needs to court that county and if he really wants to improve his numbers there he might need to opt getting a Kiambu person as running mate. The rest of Mt Kenya are solidly behind him simply because of Raila hate ,he shiuld focus his energy on Kiambu. The way Ive seen Ruto operating before he will make a realistic decision away from theories.( Read 2013 elections when he decided against all odds to join and deputize Uhuru when some of his advisors were asking him ti join Raila , Run alone or acomodate Kalonzo in their line up.

At least you've climbed down from kiambu kikuyu
If Kikuyus had been as steadfast - with 90 percent support and turnout - Ruto wont be looking elsewhere.
The final list is clear Gachagua, Muturi, Kindiki and Ndidi Nyoro.
I dont know who Ruto will pick - but I'd take Moses Kuria seriously that Justin Muturi is the guy.
And he fits the bill for DPORK (not pork)- he is Mt kenya (kikuyu will be hard pressed to undo the GEMA alliance) - he is 10yrs speaker
And is really 3rd in line - if both Uhuru and Ruto were locked in a room - and they kill each other like is likely - Muturi become PORK.

Anyway I believe if Raila pick Martha - Ruto will also pick a Kikuyu.
If he picks Kalonzo - he will pick an easterner too.

Muturi and Uhuru - bring in a secret deal angle btw Ruto and Kenyattas - I dont buy this fallout 100 percent - part of me feel it's usual keep your enemies closer and your friends away.

And if I was Raila i would not listen to Uhuru - because he could be his biggest enemy - and this selection of Karua is part of finishing him. Uhuru knows Karua is an expired product in mt kenya politics, knows kamba nation will revolt and yet he is forcing Raila to pick her - meanwhile his friend or proxy or poodle - muturi - come from nowhere and overtake Ruto men...iko kitu.

This is theory , similar to 2013 Theory that another Kikuyu cannot be elected as President.
Ruto will chose a Kikuyu. Muturi is a non factor last elected to parliament in 2002 and prior to that in a by election.
He lost 2013 election and by virtue of being a bossom friend of Uhuru was given speaker job.

[Nowayhaha]

Lots of theory. Nowonder you always get it wrong.

when is Ruto unveiling senior MCA Ndindi.. or as usual waiting to counter Raila.

Face it: if it Karua - expect Waiguru or Wahome. If it PK - expect Ndindi. If it Munya - expect Kindiki or Muturi.

That how desperate Ruto remain for Mt Kenya.

[audacityofhope]

Lots of theory. Nowonder you always get it wrong.

when is Ruto unveiling senior MCA Ndindi.. or as usual waiting to counter Raila.

Face it: if it Karua - expect Waiguru or Wahome. If it PK - expect Ndindi. If it Munya - expect Kindiki or Muturi.

That how desperate Ruto remain for Mt Kenya.

Ukweli tupu! Azimio unveiled a contestant plucked out of Equity bank - Igathe, Copycat Luto goes to Absa to get its COO Jim Muchiri to counter as running mate for Sakaja. Poor Sakaja .....

"I don't really know this Njoroge man but boss akisema ni yeye running mate basi ni hivo. I accept"
-Johnson Sakaja.

[RV Pundit]

Every election has it's dynamic.

Ruto knew that Uhuru as candidate was going to bring A game in GEMA - get 28-30 percent - he bring A game in Kalenjin 14-15  and they only need 5-10 percent to win from rest of the country.

Ruto is one who initiated Uhuru quest for power - otherwise Saitoti was far ahead - and for Ruto it was just dusting MOI 2002 plan that had aborted when Raila had split Kikuyu by supporting Kibaki.

Now even if you choose from Kiambu - Uhuru will still have his influence there - and in entire GEMA - at best Ruto can hope for a B game - but need to plan for C game there. In both voter preferences and turnout.

Therefore for Ruto - GEMA at best will bring him 20% percent. His Kalenjin maybe 15 percent - that takes him to 35 percent.

So it's important for him to court Non-GEMA. And therefore he has to be sensitive and run a campaign that appease both GEMA and Non-GEMA.

Now quickest way to make Non-GEMA voter disappear is to appoint yet another Kikuyu - but to appoint from Kiambu - would be stupidity of highest order.

Therefore I believe for Ruto he has to be extremely careful with another Kikuyu DPORK.
The propaganda that was unleashed in Mululu by Uhuru - saw UDA lose in Matungu, Kabuchai and Machakos.
It's very lethal propaganda that has been the engine of Raila since 2007
It's very lethal propaganda that sustained Moi in 1990s - anti-Kikuyu propaganda now add Kalenjin - and you a very toxic mix.
That propaganda can only be overturned if GEMA bring their A game with selection of DPORK
All evidence suggest they wont - we can at best expect a B game - but again plan for C game.

Yes GEMA C game is still better than anybody A game - so DPORK must be GeMA.

Therefore for Ruto - I'd go for kikuyu if Raila choose a Kikuyu - he wont be able to run anti-kikuyu propaganda or anti-two tribes have dominated us propaganda.
If he chooses Kalonzo - I WONT pick a Kikuyu - a GEMA like Kindiki or Muturi works for.

And to play safe - I would pick Kindiki or Muturi. To play risky - I would pick Ndidi to excite Kikuyus - but rest of country will see that PORK is gone now until 2037 - because Ndidi will be playing for LONG TERM. They wont like it.

Kindiki many GEMA see as unable to stand up to Ruto - more a Ruto poodle - so they may not like it.
Many want Gachagua because he is very strong willed and can protect GEMA interest

So Muturi seems to fit the bill - GEMA who is NON-GEMA and who can face Ruto as an "equal".

I'd therefore rank Muturi and Gachagua high - wild cards remaind Ndidi and Kindiki

RV , I do believe you are trying to measure all outcomes, However Real politics is different . Ruto as we speak will score good numbers in all Mt Kenya counties his lowest will be Kiambu ,Kiambu have some superiority complex which exibited itself in 1997,2002 and 2007 elections also its the County with the largest number of voters. Just like in 2013 when Ruto climbed down due to realpolitics that you require GEMA to win elections ,He needs to court that county and if he really wants to improve his numbers there he might need to opt getting a Kiambu person as running mate. The rest of Mt Kenya are solidly behind him simply because of Raila hate ,he shiuld focus his energy on Kiambu. The way Ive seen Ruto operating before he will make a realistic decision away from theories.( Read 2013 elections when he decided against all odds to join and deputize Uhuru when some of his advisors were asking him ti join Raila , Run alone or acomodate Kalonzo in their line up.

[RV Pundit]

Gender is non issues in kenya. Raila is being a moron to select Martha hoping to get women vote. With Martha and PK having last expired in GEMA politics in 15yrs ago - cant even win governorship - like RV HH says - Ruto can run without DPORK or pick anybody from the streets - and win.

Azimio need to worry about Kambas - and Kalonzo. That is their BIGGeST ProbLEM.

I dont see how Kambas and Kalonzo will play along the Kikuyu DPORK in AZIMIO.

We will declare Ruto elected the day you appoint PK or Martha.

Munya is out - didnt resign - cannot run.

when is Ruto unveiling senior MCA Ndindi.. or as usual waiting to counter Raila.

Face it: if it Karua - expect Waiguru or Wahome. If it PK - expect Ndindi. If it Munya - expect Kindiki or Muturi.

That how desperate Ruto remain for Mt Kenya.

[GeeMail]

When you see Pundit million threads on Karua you know something is cooking. You see Pundit calling for Kaloi to save RAO numbers you know Kaloi is worth only one vote. Worrier quaking in their boots when Karua dawa yake is mentioned.

[RV Pundit]

I am dispassionate pundit. There are things we have warned would make Ruto pork. One was Raila running - if Raila had toshad someone else Ruto would be struggling - but we wanted him to run because he has big problem in GEMA. That big problem cannot be solved by putting DPORK in Mt kenya.

Anyway the moment PK or Martha are picked - Kambas bolt out - I expect Uhuru to start the handover process - to the president elect Ruto.

Whatever Raila does - he must retain Kamba vote - that is my free advice. He drop kamba vote - he goes back to highs of 30s. And there is nothing to suggest that GEMA hatred of Raila will be bridged by Martha - Uhuru himself has deployed everything the last five years.

At this point really we are looking for some excitement - because this so booring. We want Raila to lose by at least 45 percent. Not go down with 35 percent.

When you see Pundit million threads on Karua you know something is cooking. You see Pundit calling for Kaloi to save RAO numbers you know Kaloi is worth only one vote. Worrier quaking in their boots when Karua dawa yake is mentioned.

[GeeMail]

You do not decide for rivals how to lose. Nature abhors vacuum so where do Kamba go after bolting? Kaloi gain nothing in bolting. All positions in KK occupied. Best the protest can do is to stay home voter apathy. You said here million times your man sleepwalking to state house but going by million threads here you are in terrible panic. You started threats to Kikuyu diaspora and they succumbed. Now you are on smothering phase. Then Karua give you shivers. Have you painted chalkface worrier yet?

[RV Pundit]

This election you must admit is as booring as 2013 and 2017 - because GEMA plus Kalenjin when united - is hard to beat. So I have been really pro-bono trying to help Raila.

Now my free advice - next two weeks - negotiate with kamba nation so they dont bolt out. I believe Ruto can still find something for Kalonzo...he can ask maDVD to move a little and create space for Kalonzo. Ruto can even give Kalonzo DPORK if he so desperate for it.  Kalonzo at this point just need RESPECT and three cabinet CS - CS of foreign affair for himself- and to avenge Raila and Uhuru mistreating him.

I dont think GEMA will bolt out of they dont have DPORK - they are just tired of having PORK and see nothing change in their lives - but Kambas is something else. They badly want DPORK.

You do not decide for rivals how to lose. Nature abhors vacuum so where do Kamba go after bolting? Kaloi gain nothing in bolting. All positions in KK occupied. Best the protest can do is to stay home voter apathy. You said here million times your man sleepwalking to state house but going by million threads here you are in terrible panic. You started threats to Kikuyu diaspora and they succumbed. Now you are on smothering phase. Then Karua give you shivers. Have you painted chalkface worrier yet?

[GeeMail]

You nailed it. Kamba desperate for DPORK. But they know they can't get it now with flipflop Kaloi. You dont threaten your way to DPORK or smile it in with mention at dead mans burial. He don get it in Azimio and also not in KK. MaDVD cannot move an inch when already in nasty infighting with Rigathi Gachagua. You promised him Finance monster and now you want to make him MCA?

Atwoli will laugh himself to death.