Roughly speaking I expect UDA to get 160MPs, ODM 45 Mps, Wiper 15Mps, Jubilee 20Mps, maDVD 15mps, FORD-K 10mps.
There are about 70mps that are too close to call now - be contested by all big/small parties - and independent candidates.
1 UDA 160
2 ODM 45
3 WIPER 16
4 JUBILEE 19
5 ANC 13
6 FORDK 10
8 TCTC 67
Overally I expect UDA to perform extremely well for conducting largely credible nominations in 36 counties. Wiper that has given pretty much every sitting MP a direct ticket will lose Mps from current 22-25 to 15mps. ODM has not conducted nomination in most places and where it has it been shambolic...I see them losing 20mps or more due to that. Only one incumbent in Luo Nyanza is not running.
Jubilee will surprisingly do well - particularly in northern kenya. Uhuru can go as high as 30-40mps depending on how he finance Mps. He could even beat Raila - if Raila is forced by Azimio partners not endorse 6 piece suite.
Small parties under Azimio will get votes.
Few independent candidates in UDA zones will pass through.
Of the 17 seats in Nairobi - I see many undecided as the Luhya fallout with Luos become apparent. UDA could harvest some of this.
Topic: Rough MOASS for MPs - before I see the final list of candidates by parties (Read 749 times)