Nakuru Governor - Rongai Tugens will vote for Lee Kinyanjui Moi

[Nefertiti]

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Pundit & RVHH

Nakuru is a cosmopolitan town - 50% Kikuyu, 30% Kale, 20% Kavirondo

Now we know Kikuyu are split UDA-Azimio. Kavirondo are bulk Azimio. But the assumption is that 101% Kalenjin will vote Susan. This fallacy is deliberately perpetuated by RV Pundit who knows better (RVHH, Noway can be forgiven). Tugens and Pokots in Baringo always vote in Gideon Moi against the Ruto tide. In 2017, Ruto had the popular Chelugui step down from governor to decapitate Gideon but Gideon got 68% of the vote. This shows the dicy nature of intra-Kale politics: they will vote Ruto for PORK but their man for other seats. Raymond Moi is the Rongai MP in a rigid Jubilee zone.

I expect Lee to start at 20% Kavirondo, 15% Kikuyu, 15% Kalenjin. Game shot. These numbers are conservative given the quarrelsome unruly nature of Susan who has been picking up quarrels with other Nakuru and national UDA leaders such as Farouk Kibet.
 

[Nowayhaha]

Ribena, politics is not self deceit. Kukuyus and Kalenjins in Nakuru are all behind Ruto.
You seem to be a wishful thinker type of supporter. Politics is not a game of cards where you can be lucky . Its a game of numbers , game of convincing .
Lee Kinyanjuis mistake was aligning with Uhuru then before he could make up his mind Kihika had already engrained herself in UDA leadership and politics. So he thought he could go Railas was
and be chosen as CS. Wrong move He should have done a Waiguru.
But being the Ribena you are you still hope for a miracle. Suprised you have not brought up elected Mps or after nominations its not working the way you wanted.

[Nefertiti]

Ribena, politics is not self deceit. Kukuyus and Kalenjins in Nakuru are all behind Ruto.
You seem to be a wishful thinker type of supporter. Politics is not a game of cards where you can be lucky . Its a game of numbers , game of convincing .
Lee Kinyanjuis mistake was aligning with Uhuru then before he could make up his mind Kihika had already engrained herself in UDA leadership and politics. So he thought he could go Railas was
and be chosen as CS. Wrong move He should have done a Waiguru.
But being the Ribena you are you still hope for a miracle. Suprised you have not brought up elected Mps or after nominations its not working the way you wanted.

I don't get why you purport to use track records when you have none.  You are basically RV Pundit's parrot

Explain Baringo... Gideon Moi vs Ruto 2013, 2017
Rongai... Raymond Moi vs Ruto/Jubilee 2013, 2017

In both cases Tugens vote Ruto for co-president but Moi for parliament against hard-noise & express Ruto wishes. Nothing is different in 2022. Rongai will vote Moi for both MP and governor. This is not wishful but empirical.

Ps - Pundit is online but scratching his head - prolly making frantic calls  - trying to devise a spin for this...

[Githunguri]

Robina.

These are paid bloggers or idlers trying to sell UDA propaganda...the earlier you stop engaging them the better.

I think instead of all these noises,someone should make a prediction,Put a USD 500 bet and wait for August 9.

[RV Pundit]

There is nothing like intra-kalenjin maths as we speak - Ruto has consolidated all except Pokot.
Gideon Moi relied on Pokots plus half the tugen - remember he was supporting Uhuru & Jubilee.
His brother Raymond is liked for development - then add Moi money
This time round it's about dynasties - people are not taking money. KAA NA PESA YAKO
I dont think Mois are even standing. They know they stand absolutely zero chances.

Now let move to Lee.
I actually own lots of land in Nakuru...so I have a say.
Nakuru is difficult place where people vote peace before anything.
Lee has committed cardinal sins of trying to drive tribal wedge in Nakuru one of tribal hotspot.
Kikuyus will punish him - Kalenjin will also punish him heavily for taking Nakuru to Mt kenya.
He has better development record - than Mbugua - but Nakuru people know maendeleo is nothing.
Peace is everything - same message in Uasin Gishu. Those that preach peace wins.

Now tribal maths - you're about right..50 percent kikuyus, Kalenjin 35 percent, Kavirondo 15 percent.
Lee after knowing he had screwed up - thought kavirondo would save him
Big mistake - he never saw the earthquake.
Kavirondo alliance of Nairobi slums doesnt extend to Luhyas working in flower farms of Naivasha.
Maybe in Nakuru slums - but generally Nakuru kavirondo are free agents connected to their homeground.

Bottomline - Lee will lose by HUGE proportion despite being nice guy.

Susan though she is messing up big time - will win big time. I estimate he will get 30 percent of kikuyu plus 30 percent kalenjin plus 10 percent kavirondo - winning margin of 70 percent. Keroche lady will score 80 percent.

Lee and Nakuru town gusii Mp are only Jubilee guys....all 9 mps and everyone else is UDA for a reason.

PREDICTING election results is not just about KNOWING TRIBAL ARITHMETICS - it's understanding the ISSUES AT PLAY - the contemporary issues in every locale.

Lee remain guilty of trying to endanger peaceful co-existence of nakuru by bandying around with war mongers.

Pundit & RVHH

Nakuru is a cosmopolitan town - 50% Kikuyu, 30% Kale, 20% Kavirondo

Now we know Kikuyu are split UDA-Azimio. Kavirondo are bulk Azimio. But the assumption is that 101% Kalenjin will vote Susan. This fallacy is deliberately perpetuated by RV Pundit who knows better (RVHH, Noway can be forgiven). Tugens and Pokots in Baringo always vote in Gideon Moi against the Ruto tide. In 2017, Ruto had the popular Chelugui step down from governor to decapitate Gideon but Gideon got 68% of the vote. This shows the dicy nature of intra-Kale politics: they will vote Ruto for PORK but their man for other seats. Raymond Moi is the Rongai MP in a rigid Jubilee zone.

I expect Lee to start at 20% Kavirondo, 15% Kikuyu, 15% Kalenjin. Game shot. These numbers are conservative given the quarrelsome unruly nature of Susan who has been picking up quarrels with other Nakuru and national UDA leaders such as Farouk Kibet.
 

Pundit & RVHH

Nakuru is a cosmopolitan town - 50% Kikuyu, 30% Kale, 20% Kavirondo

Now we know Kikuyu are split UDA-Azimio. Kavirondo are bulk Azimio. But the assumption is that 101% Kalenjin will vote Susan. This fallacy is deliberately perpetuated by RV Pundit who knows better (RVHH, Noway can be forgiven). Tugens and Pokots in Baringo always vote in Gideon Moi against the Ruto tide. In 2017, Ruto had the popular Chelugui step down from governor to decapitate Gideon but Gideon got 68% of the vote. This shows the dicy nature of intra-Kale politics: they will vote Ruto for PORK but their man for other seats. Raymond Moi is the Rongai MP in a rigid Jubilee zone.

I expect Lee to start at 20% Kavirondo, 15% Kikuyu, 15% Kalenjin. Game shot. These numbers are conservative given the quarrelsome unruly nature of Susan who has been picking up quarrels with other Nakuru and national UDA leaders such as Farouk Kibet.
 

[Nefertiti]

Robina.

These are paid bloggers or idlers trying to sell UDA propaganda...the earlier you stop engaging them the better.

I think instead of all these noises,someone should make a prediction,Put a USD 500 bet and wait for August 9.

Yes they are in strange, bizarre bot mode - the UDA echo chamber is real. Apparently all Ruto moves are magic - with primaries confined to RV & Central - yet the primaries mess is all over. See how Susan meddled in Naivasha and almost rigged out Jayne Kihara. Kimani Ngunjiri in Bahati got a direct ticket to appease him not to bolt to Azimio - the primaries were a total sham there - booths opened at 3pm in Kimani opponent Quindos strongholds. But to Noway this means UDA is kosher and Susan is already governor.

Now am telling them - DEMONSTRABLY - Tugens will vote for Gideon, Raymond and Lee Moi - same as 2013, 2017. But the rebuttal is all Kalenjins are with Ruto... as if Ruto is running in Nakuru.

[Nefertiti]

By the way Githunguri - RV Pundit is ready to take you on that bet. His is a kamikaze run: atakufa na Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Gideon Not running. Raymond not Running. Lee bastard Moi going home. This election is anti-dynasty. Kosgey had two sons running for governor and senate - wamekula chini.

Ruto hustler revolution will be apparent to you on 10th August - it's akin to 2002 Narc Revolution.

Hapo ndio utaona KENYA MPYA.

Robina.

These are paid bloggers or idlers trying to sell UDA propaganda...the earlier you stop engaging them the better.

I think instead of all these noises,someone should make a prediction,Put a USD 500 bet and wait for August 9.

Yes they are in strange, bizarre bot mode - the UDA echo chamber is real. Apparently all Ruto moves are magic - with primaries confined to RV & Central - yet the primaries mess is all over. See how Susan meddled in Naivasha and almost rigged out Jayne Kihara. Kimani Ngunjiri in Bahati got a direct ticket to appease him not to bolt to Azimio - the primaries were a total sham there - booths opened at 3pm in Kimani opponent Quindos strongholds. But to Noway this means UDA is kosher and Susan is already governor.

Now am telling them - DEMONSTRABLY - Tugens will vote for Gideon, Raymond and Lee Moi - same as 2013, 2017. But the rebuttal is all Kalenjins are with Ruto... as if Ruto is running in Nakuru.

[Nefertiti]

The 2-1 split of Kikuyus already factors peace & dynasty.

A few cowards will vote Ruto in Eldoret - but Kikuyu majority in Nakuru outside Molo are not bothered about peace. Dynasty vs hustler has also failed except in Gema. It main reason Ruto is leading despite Uhuru backing Raila. Mois have always opposed Ruto and still won. They have always been dynasty.

Kikuyu 2-1. Kalenjin split for Moi. Kavirondo bulk of Luo & Gusii are Lee. Luhyas are few and split. Kavirondo actually I recall you blaming them for beating UDA MCA at Hell's Gate in 2020 by-election.

There is nothing like intra-kalenjin maths as we speak - Ruto has consolidated all except Pokot.
Gideon Moi relied on Pokots plus half the tugen - remember he was supporting Uhuru & Jubilee.
His brother Raymond is liked for development - then add Moi money
This time round it's about dynasties - people are not taking money. KAA NA PESA YAKO
I dont think Mois are even standing. They know they stand absolutely zero chances.

Now let move to Lee.
I actually own lots of land in Nakuru...so I have a say.
Nakuru is difficult place where people vote peace before anything.
Lee has committed cardinal sins of trying to drive tribal wedge in Nakuru one of tribal hotspot.
Kikuyus will punish him - Kalenjin will also punish him heavily for taking Nakuru to Mt kenya.
He has better development record - than Mbugua - but Nakuru people know maendeleo is nothing.
Peace is everything - same message in Uasin Gishu. Those that preach peace wins.

Now tribal maths - you're about right..50 percent kikuyus, Kalenjin 35 percent, Kavirondo 15 percent.
Lee after knowing he had screwed up - thought kavirondo would save him
Big mistake - he never saw the earthquake.
Kavirondo alliance of Nairobi slums doesnt extend to Luhyas working in flower farms of Naivasha.
Maybe in Nakuru slums - but generally Nakuru kavirondo are free agents connected to their homeground.

Bottomline - Lee will lose by HUGE proportion despite being nice guy.

Susan though she is messing up big time - will win big time. I estimate he will get 30 percent of kikuyu plus 30 percent kalenjin plus 10 percent kavirondo - winning margin of 70 percent. Keroche lady will score 80 percent.

Lee and Nakuru town gusii Mp are only Jubilee guys....all 9 mps and everyone else is UDA for a reason.

PREDICTING election results is not just about KNOWING TRIBAL ARITHMETICS - it's understanding the ISSUES AT PLAY - the contemporary issues in every locale.

Lee remain guilty of trying to endanger peaceful co-existence of nakuru by bandying around with war mongers.

[RV Pundit]

Okay - soon I have my governor MOASS - and then we meet in August 10th. Last time I got 39 right. I missed 8.
Lee is gone...look for something else. Azimio in Nakuru is dead..all MPs joined UDA for that reason.
Kavirondo of Nakuru - Luhyas are majority or near Gusii- Luos are minority - very few in towns working as mechanics and such.
Luhyas work mostly in flower farms of Naivasha. Gusii are settled.
In 1990s - I remember Shikuku brother Oyodi was Nakuru town Mp.
When it comes to Kalenjin - Tugen are fewer - Kipsigis are the majority - occupying Kureoi south, north, part of Molo, Njoro and Rongai.

The 2-1 split of Kikuyus already factors peace & dynasty.

A few cowards will vote Ruto in Eldoret - but Kikuyu majority in Nakuru outside Molo are not bothered about peace. Dynasty vs hustler has also failed except in Gema. It main reason Ruto is leading despite Uhuru backing Raila. Mois have always opposed Ruto and still won. They have always been dynasty.

Kikuyu 2-1. Kalenjin split for Moi. Kavirondo bulk of Luo & Gusii are Lee. Luhyas are few and split. Kavirondo actually I recall you blaming them for beating UDA MCA at Hell's Gate in 2020 by-election.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Wishful thinking. Nakuru is by large Kikuyu, Kalenjin, and Luhya. MDVD and Weta already told Luhya to support UDA in Nakuru and kick jubilee by the balls. Tugens are with DP but may vote Raymond Moi. Kikuyus in RV are just UDA and may weed out non-Kenya Kwanza politicians. Ruto has 100% of Kalenjin at the top, but on the bottom positions, he has 90% because only a few tugens might vote MOI. With 99% Kalenjins, and 55% GEMA voting Kihika, Lee Moi will see dust very early. There is no way that Lee will win unless 80% of Gema votes for him. Waiguru was wise to listen to the ground before and pivot uniquely. I think Lee at Kenya Kwanza would have edged out Susan haraka sana, but he messed up! Infact folks in Kuresoi and most Kalenjins know Lee as kale and have no issues with him at all just mulling with assimio thugs. Chemalel, aka Susan Kihika will take it bure tu! On the top presidential level, there is no argument all voters in Nakuru and RV will not abandon RV prince. It is DP all the way!

[Nefertiti]

Apples & mangoes. Kosgey is Nandi - together with Kipsigis are diehard Ruto. But Tugen or Pokot are rebels like Meru in Gema - they don't vote suite.

Gideon is not running away from Ruto - he is going to be Raila Foreign CS - obvious after bankrolling Azimio there is payback. No point to have by-election in few months. He has beat Ruto hands-down twice - landslide. Same as Raymond.

Hustler vs dynasty only works in Gema. The core "message" giving Ruto edge in Mt Kenya is hustler-vs-dynasty aka bottom-up. Yet it split big. There is no magic that will happen in August that has not happened upto now - everyone knows what is on offer from each side.

Gideon Not running. Raymond not Running. Lee bastard Moi going home. This election is anti-dynasty. Kosgey had two sons running for governor and senate - wamekula chini.

Ruto hustler revolution will be apparent to you on 10th August - it's akin to 2002 Narc Revolution.

Hapo ndio utaona KENYA MPYA.

[Nefertiti]

I wish you would follow that Gema or Nakuru MPs logic in Kamba and Luhya  - but instead you concoct bribery,  intimidation and other voodoo.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Apples & mangoes. Kosgey is Nandi - together with Kipsigis are diehard Ruto. But Tugen or Pokot are rebels like Meru in Gema - they don't vote suite.

Gideon is not running away from Ruto - he is going to be Raila Foreign CS - obvious after bankrolling Azimio there is payback. No point to have by-election in few months. He has beat Ruto hands-down twice - landslide. Same as Raymond.

Hustler vs dynasty only works in Gema. The core "message" giving Ruto edge in Mt Kenya is hustler-vs-dynasty aka bottom-up. Yet it split big. There is no magic that will happen in August that has not happened upto now - everyone knows what is on offer from each side.

Gideon Not running. Raymond not Running. Lee bastard Moi going home. This election is anti-dynasty. Kosgey had two sons running for governor and senate - wamekula chini.

Ruto hustler revolution will be apparent to you on 10th August - it's akin to 2002 Narc Revolution.

Hapo ndio utaona KENYA MPYA.

Mois survived because they decided to ride on Ruto's Jubilee from 2013-2017. In 2022, they know UDA has a mission to finish Moi and KANU completely; that is why Raymond Moi decided to shift to Jubilee, not Kanu!