Raila secure Mombasa

[RV Pundit]

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Seem he got two candidates to agree -
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/odm-settles-on-abulswamad-nassir-for-mombasa-governor-s-seat-3783886

ODM are on the ropes - everywhere including Luo Nyanza is a battle ground

So this win plus maybe Busia are good start.

Gusii tough - Kisiia arati has hit a clan wall - Nyamira is battle btw Matiangi upstart party and UDA. Kakamega and Vihiga tough - Malala and maDVD man in Vihiga very strong. Siaya and Homabay tough- Orengo will not recover from combined Gumbo-Owino- while billionaire of Nairobi Kidero will make Wanga run to Ahero:) .  Kisumu & Migori - not yet resolved - Nyongo is unpopular

Nairobi ODM will not field - Uhuru will take it and give to proxy.

Then maybe get two or three from NEP and other parts of coast.

So ODM is looking at 5-8 governors.

[Nowayhaha]

I still think depending on how it plays out . Nassir might not win.
Lots of factors esp Arab vs Bantu rivarly. Yes Luos Kisumu ndogos is a factor but it will also depend on alot like which candidate Wiper will field , Which candidate UDA will field.

Seem he got two candidates to agree -

ODM are on the ropes - everywhere including Luo Nyanza is a battle ground

So this win plus maybe Busia are good start.

Gusii tough - Kisiia arati has hit a clan wall. Kakamega and Vihiga tough. Siaya and Homabay tough. Kisumu & Migori - not yet resolved.

Nairobi ODM will not field - Uhuru will take it and give to proxy.

Then maybe get two or three from NEP and other parts of coast.

[RV Pundit]

UDA guy is hopeless according to opinion polls.
Sonko is a curve ball - could rescue Mijikenda & Kamba from a historical colonization by Arabs - Maritha Karisa wave required.
UDA should support Sonko - hiyo Sarai dude is hopeless.
If Sonko can rally Mijikenda and Kambas - it game shot.
Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa but they are being abused - by those Arabs and Swahilis.
Kambas are 17- maybe even 20 percent - but no say.
Kavirondo group - Luo/Luhya/Gusii - in urban centers merge - and make it count.

I still think depending on how it plays out . Nassir might not win.
Lots of factors esp Arab vs Bantu rivarly. Yes Luos Kisumu ndogos is a factor but it will also depend on alot like which candidate Wiper will field , Which candidate UDA will field.

Seem he got two candidates to agree -

ODM are on the ropes - everywhere including Luo Nyanza is a battle ground

So this win plus maybe Busia are good start.

Gusii tough - Kisiia arati has hit a clan wall. Kakamega and Vihiga tough. Siaya and Homabay tough. Kisumu & Migori - not yet resolved.

Nairobi ODM will not field - Uhuru will take it and give to proxy.

Then maybe get two or three from NEP and other parts of coast.

[Nowayhaha]

Nassir & Sarai same whatsup group. Joho got an edge because he pretended he is a Mijikenda(Digo) and had a Giriama as DG. Then also having come out strong as Raila defender the Luo looked at him as one of their own. Also the first term he had done a good job in Kisauni just like what Jicho pevu has done in Nyali.
There is a Big Rivarly in Mombasa between Arab Swahilis and Bantu Swahili. Lets see how it will play.

UDA guy is hopeless according to opinion polls.
Sonko is a curve ball - could rescue Mijikenda & Kamba from a historical colonization by Arabs - Maritha Karisa wave required.
UDA should support Sonko - hiyo Sarai dude is hopeless.
If Sonko can rally Mijikenda and Kambas - it game shot.
Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa but they are being abused - by those Arabs and Swahilis.
Kambas are 17- maybe even 20 percent - but no say.
Kavirondo group - Luo/Luhya/Gusii - in urban centers merge - and make it count.

I still think depending on how it plays out . Nassir might not win.
Lots of factors esp Arab vs Bantu rivarly. Yes Luos Kisumu ndogos is a factor but it will also depend on alot like which candidate Wiper will field , Which candidate UDA will field.

Seem he got two candidates to agree -

ODM are on the ropes - everywhere including Luo Nyanza is a battle ground

So this win plus maybe Busia are good start.

Gusii tough - Kisiia arati has hit a clan wall. Kakamega and Vihiga tough. Siaya and Homabay tough. Kisumu & Migori - not yet resolved.

Nairobi ODM will not field - Uhuru will take it and give to proxy.

Then maybe get two or three from NEP and other parts of coast.