Nairobi governorship - how will they resolve this

[RV Pundit]

This vindicate my thinking on Nairobi
If ODM sacrifices Tim - Sakaja wins.

[Pragmatic]

@RvP & Robina.... let me help your conversation.

Tim ain't backing off for any Senate position, he will go all the way to the Debe. Jubilee will have to let Ngatia go and if they insist, tutaenda kwa debe wananchi wachague. ODM does not lose anything... In a 3-way the Kikuyu (2017 Jubilee) vote will be split Ngatia / Sakaja and Tim has it, Ngatia comes last... Worst case, Tim gets some of that Jubilee 2017 vote basket...

Meantime Baba gets the lionshare Presidential vote.

[RV Pundit]

Raila is Uhuru(Ngatia biatch). If Tim is serious he should run as independent. He has lots of goodwill. I was going to vote him if UDA gave us Wanjiru. But with Sakaja I think it's fair contest...with slight edge to Tim.

Once Luo-Luhya kavirondo alliance has been broken - it's about half broken now - Raila cannot win Nairobi - Ruto is going to win Nairobi by getting 80 percent of GEMA, 50 percent of Luhya - that is already 37 percent - then kalenjin tufikishe 42 percent - halafu rest of tribes to add to 50 percent.

Raila start with solid 100% of Luo (15 percent) ; Kambas are itch itch (maybe 70%) of 15% - that just take him to 25: Then half luhyas; few kikuyus and he is behind Ruto.

How ODM treat Tim will determine how Luhyas of Nairobi will vote.

@RvP & Robina.... let me help your conversation.

Tim ain't backing off for any Senate position, he will go all the way to the Debe. Jubilee will have to let Ngatia go and if they insist, tutaenda kwa debe wananchi wachague. ODM does not lose anything... In a 3-way the Kikuyu (2017 Jubilee) vote will be split Ngatia / Sakaja and Tim has it, Ngatia comes last... Worst case, Tim gets some of that Jubilee 2017 vote basket...

Meantime Baba gets the lionshare Presidential vote.

[RV Pundit]

Look like Nairobi Kenya kwanza deal is on..Sakaja for governor.. Wanjiru senator