How will Kikuyu diaspora vote?

[Githunguri]

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Nairobi-Every rich estate is surrounded slum.Muthaiga-Mathare,Karen-Kibera,Lavington-Kamgemi...It is these poor people who cast majority vote.The people in these slums are majority luo kikuyu luhua kamba and kisii so there are very few kalenjins you can count them by number.For cohesion with these tribes,they will as a unisoon with these tribes.UDA wil be luck to get more than 3Mps in Nairobi.

Coastal region.You have Swahili Arabs,Mijilenda,Luo kamba kikuyu in these regions.It will be like Nairobi.Kikuyu to vote with these people as a block to protect their businesses and cohesion with those tribes.

Western,Nyanza and Kisii will vote like the above.

In the Rift valley,Due to the rising political temperatures and fear of violence like in the past elections.Most Kikuyu will relocate back to their home base Mt Kenya which will affect turnout while the rest who will remain will vote ruto.

Laikipia Kajiado is toss up 50:50 UDA Azimio.

With these,A divided vote in Mt Kenya and low turnout unlike last elections,Raila presidency is unstoppable.

Yote yawezekana bile Ruto shall be the theme song outside KICC grounds on August 11,2022.

[Pajero]

Ruto has no chance,his only hope lies on kikuyus replicating their turn out of 2017.

[RV Pundit]

Check MOASS for how Ruto will win - low turnout and all

Ruto has no chance,his only hope lies on kikuyus replicating their turn out of 2017.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

You are dreaming and comforting yourself, pal!. How can RV Kikuyus and Luhyas relocate when there is no threat and when the candidate running is pro gema/Luhya and all Kenyans. In Nakuru, Susan Kihika, Ruto, and Tabitha Karanja will get almost 800,000 votes. Raila will be lucky to get 100K! In Nairobi, Gema will vote UDA, Luo will vote Azimio just like in the villages because there is no threat or need for protection. The only threat to peace is if Raila loses and that is what every tribe knows including Luos. In an fortunate event DP loses fairly, he will congratulate Raila the same day and make a concession speech that will blow minds and be remembered in history. I hope Raila was cut from the same cloth! Tuliza poli Mzee! DP never loses. In 2017 after the nullification, Uhuru told Ruto "What are we gonna do, we will never pull this off" DP looked him directly in the eye and told him "Just act strong and I will campaign my tail off until we hit 9 million votes" The rest is history! Why do you think Uhuru is more scared than Raila? And Why do you think Raila is counting on Uhuru than his team? Because they both know by election night Ruto will have campaigned, aggressively, and make almost 10 million contacts. The nyumba Kumi-neighborhood combing he started in 2012. Kenyans are tribalists but once you engage them up close, relate with them, present them with your agenda, and give them boogeyman to vote against, they are sold. As we speak there are 7.3 million diehard registered UDA verified voters that will be activated a few days before Election Day. Am sure ANC/FORD has over 800K or so. With another additional few votes, DP is almost there. And yes, the majority of those 7.3 are GEMA! Na wamesema hawapangwigwi!

[RV Pundit]

Nimefanya hesabu ya kenya tribal voting.
Only way Ruto loses is if they go 50-50 in GEMA
Hakuna Njia ingine.
Raila biggest problem - is that while fixated on GEMA - he has lost some of his previous base to Ruto.
If Raila does miracle - and get 49 percent of GEMA - he will beat Ruto by 10,000 votes
It just impossible for Ruto to lose this.

Raila right now has basically given up on GEMA - he is now running back to his 44 percent  NASA base - but most left him.
He has mountain to climb in Ukambani to win them back - even with Kalonzo onboard.
Half the Luhyas are gone gone.  The other half are 50-50 - so depending on how ANC/FORD-K play this - with UDA giving them free pass - Luhya could turn 70 percent for Ruto - 30 percent Jakom. Disaster for Raila.
Ruto unlike Kenyatta is doing very well in Maasai, Turkana, NEP & Coast.
Infact the only place Ruto "struggling" now is maybe Gusii & part of coast - but he still doing better than Uhuru

You are dreaming and comforting yourself, pal!. How can RV Kikuyus and Luhyas relocate when there is no threat and when the candidate running is pro gema/Luhya and all Kenyans. In Nakuru, Susan Kihika, Ruto, and Tabitha Karanja will get almost 800,000 votes. Raila will be lucky to get 100K! In Nairobi, Gema will vote UDA, Luo will vote Azimio just like in the villages because there is no threat or need for protection. The only threat to peace is if Raila loses and that is what every tribe knows including Luos. In an fortunate event DP loses fairly, he will congratulate Raila the same day and make a concession speech that will blow minds and be remembered in history. I hope Raila was cut from the same cloth! Tuliza poli Mzee! DP never loses. In 2017 after the nullification, Uhuru told Ruto "What are we gonna do, we will never pull this off" DP looked him directly in the eye and told him "Just act strong and I will campaign my tail off until we hit 9 million votes" The rest is history! Why do you think Uhuru is more scared than Raila? And Why do you think Raila is counting on Uhuru than his team? Because they both know by election night Ruto will have campaigned, aggressively, and make almost 10 million contacts. The nyumba Kumi-neighborhood combing he started in 2012. Kenyans are tribalists but once you engage them up close, relate with them, present them with your agenda, and give them boogeyman to vote against, they are sold. As we speak there are 7.3 million diehard registered UDA verified voters that will be activated a few days before Election Day. Am sure ANC/FORD has over 800K or so. With another additional few votes, DP is almost there. And yes, the majority of those 7.3 are GEMA! Na wamesema hawapangwigwi!

[RV Pundit]

Some of these things are actually very easy

Kenya kwanza boast of the first 3 largest tribes. The 4th, 5th and 6th largest goes to Azimio, the 7th, 8th goes to Kenya kwanza 8th and 10th are 50-50. Can't add up your tribal arithmetic

[hk]

Ruto has no chance,his only hope lies on kikuyus replicating their turn out of 2017.

voter turn out in central at best will be 60% from 85% at worst 55%. Raila will get atleast 25% of that lower turn out. There's no nyumba kumi campaign to increase turn out, actually from what I have seen and heard its jubilee doing community meetings especially targeting women. 

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Nimefanya hesabu ya kenya tribal voting.
Only way Ruto loses is if they go 50-50 in GEMA
Hakuna Njia ingine.
Raila biggest problem - is that while fixated on GEMA - he has lost some of his previous base to Ruto.
If Raila does miracle - and get 49 percent of GEMA - he will beat Ruto by 10,000 votes
It just impossible for Ruto to lose this.

Raila right now has basically given up on GEMA - he is now running back to his 44 percent  NASA base - but most left him.
He has mountain to climb in Ukambani to win them back - even with Kalonzo onboard.
Half the Luhyas are gone gone.  The other half are 50-50 - so depending on how ANC/FORD-K play this - with UDA giving them free pass - Luhya could turn 70 percent for Ruto - 30 percent Jakom. Disaster for Raila.
Ruto unlike Kenyatta is doing very well in Maasai, Turkana, NEP & Coast.
Infact the only place Ruto "struggling" now is maybe Gusii & part of coast - but he still doing better than Uhuru

You are dreaming and comforting yourself, pal!. How can RV Kikuyus and Luhyas relocate when there is no threat and when the candidate running is pro gema/Luhya and all Kenyans. In Nakuru, Susan Kihika, Ruto, and Tabitha Karanja will get almost 800,000 votes. Raila will be lucky to get 100K! In Nairobi, Gema will vote UDA, Luo will vote Azimio just like in the villages because there is no threat or need for protection. The only threat to peace is if Raila loses and that is what every tribe knows including Luos. In an fortunate event DP loses fairly, he will congratulate Raila the same day and make a concession speech that will blow minds and be remembered in history. I hope Raila was cut from the same cloth! Tuliza poli Mzee! DP never loses. In 2017 after the nullification, Uhuru told Ruto "What are we gonna do, we will never pull this off" DP looked him directly in the eye and told him "Just act strong and I will campaign my tail off until we hit 9 million votes" The rest is history! Why do you think Uhuru is more scared than Raila? And Why do you think Raila is counting on Uhuru than his team? Because they both know by election night Ruto will have campaigned, aggressively, and make almost 10 million contacts. The nyumba Kumi-neighborhood combing he started in 2012. Kenyans are tribalists but once you engage them up close, relate with them, present them with your agenda, and give them boogeyman to vote against, they are sold. As we speak there are 7.3 million diehard registered UDA verified voters that will be activated a few days before Election Day. Am sure ANC/FORD has over 800K or so. With another additional few votes, DP is almost there. And yes, the majority of those 7.3 are GEMA! Na wamesema hawapangwigwi!

I wholeheartedly agree with you Faya! we discussed politics recently with him and he was saying almost the same thing you wrote. Uhuru, which I believe he meant Kikuyu candidate is hard to sell in Coast, Maa region, Kamba, and Turkana areas, basically Matusa areas. Though he doesn't believe much in the way tribal voting happens, he believes that with the right approach, I guess his UDA way,  tribal voting can be bludgeoned if issues can be framed nationally, and voters pandered to with the same message no matter the region. I guess that is why he tells people in Busia, Mandera, and Othaya the same thing. Telling Kenyans they are one tribe and their challenges can be solved similarly. He knows he has votes in Nakuru, Transnzoia, Bungoma, central, Somali, Pokot/turkana, and all the small communities. Yes, he knows he has no much votes in Kisii, but his kisii handlers are telling him otherwise! Surprised he thinks Kambas will give him more votes than Kapmama folks!

[RV Pundit]

I think 10-15% drop is reasonable (70-75 turnout) - there are still many seats to fight for - mcas to governors
GeMA population wise are about 23 percent.
GEMA when they turned up goes as high 28 percent of total votes.
This because of age-structure (more adults than kids) and of course enthusiasm to register & vote.
If they turn out at 10-15 percent less - then you're about 25 percent - of the total kenya voters - half way to 50 %
That still huge - it is Luo+Kamba+Gusii.
So if Ruto get 75 percent of 25 percent - gives Ruto 19 percent - Raila 6 percent.
That 6 percent loss - Ruto makes it up by getting half of Luhyas.
So in the end Raila is in zero sum game.
The rest will be split as always - meaning not much change from 2017 Raila dog beating.

Also remember Kalenjin will turnout like crazy - like Moi era - so expect 10 percent jump in Kalenjin turnout - and for Ruto to carry 95 percent of the vote.

voter turn out in central at best will be 60% from 85% at worst 55%. Raila will get atleast 25% of that lower turn out. There's no nyumba kumi campaign to increase turn out, actually from what I have seen and heard its jubilee doing community meetings especially targeting women. 

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto has no chance,his only hope lies on kikuyus replicating their turn out of 2017.

voter turn out in central at best will be 60% from 85% at worst 55%. Raila will get atleast 25% of that lower turn out. There's no nyumba kumi campaign to increase turn out, actually from what I have seen and heard it's jubilee doing community meetings, especially targeting women.

That chapter on the UDA front will be formulated the last few weeks before the elections. After the nominations mess has died down, the community vote targeting will start. UDA already know their voters, where they live, and their contacts, so when community canvasing begins, it will be easy to assemble and turn them to the polling stations. Individual UDA governors, senators, maps and the rest will be tasked with bring their voters to the polls. Obviously, Jubilee have an enthusiasm gap compared to UDA members who are very energized to vote for UDA candidates. I don't buy  the low turnout thing because the part has plan to bring the voters to the polls. Bodaboda will be varying people left and right to the polls, especially church groups, youth groups elders, women groups that have been maintaining financial ties with DP since 2012. There are about 100K members and all will be participating one way or another turning people to the polls! UDA is a large responsive family!

[RV Pundit]

Yes I am watching Kamba nation closely. It most likely to surprise us. Definitely Raila now has no option but choose Kalonzo. His climb Mt kenya is dead on arrival.

I wholeheartedly agree with you Faya! we discussed politics recently with him and he was saying almost the same thing you wrote. Uhuru, which I believe he meant Kikuyu candidate is hard to sell in Coast, Maa region, Kamba, and Turkana areas, basically Matusa areas. Though he doesn't believe much in the way tribal voting happens, he believes that with the right approach, I guess his UDA way,  tribal voting can be bludgeoned if issues can be framed nationally, and voters pandered to with the same message no matter the region. I guess that is why he tells people in Busia, Mandera, and Othaya the same thing. Telling Kenyans they are one tribe and their challenges can be solved similarly. He knows he has votes in Nakuru, Transnzoia, Bungoma, central, Somali, Pokot/turkana, and all the small communities. Yes, he knows he has no much votes in Kisii, but his kisii handlers are telling him otherwise! Surprised he thinks Kambas will give him more votes than Kapmama folks!

[RV Pundit]

They dont understand just how METICOUS Ruto is. Ruto has planned for this run for 30yrs. He has gathered all the arsenals needed (billions in hard cold cash, intelligence, resources, propaganda, etc). He aint going to screw up. I believe the next 10 days he will want to deliver best party nomination ever. Then spend next two weeks doing clean up - appeals and dealing with fallout.

Then it will be crazy system go - from may to august - with him doing 10 rallies - with ground team combing villages.

That chapter on the UDA front will be formulated the last few weeks before the elections. After the nominations mess has died down, the community vote targeting will start. UDA already know their voters, where they live, and their contacts, so when community canvasing begins, it will be easy to assemble and turn them to the polling stations. Individual UDA governors, senators, maps and the rest will be tasked with bring their voters to the polls. Obviously, Jubilee have an enthusiasm gap compared to UDA members who are very energized to vote for UDA candidates. I don't buy  the low turnout thing because the part has plan to bring the voters to the polls. Bodaboda will be varying people left and right to the polls, especially church groups, youth groups elders, women groups that have been maintaining financial ties with DP since 2012. There are about 1000K members and all will be participating one way or another turning people to the polls! UDA is a large responsive family!

[Pajero]

Hoog wash,Ruto only scores over 60% in RV and Central,rest of Kenya he scores below 50%.

[Githunguri]

Hoog wash,Ruto only scores over 60% in RV and Central,rest of Kenya he scores below 50%.

Precisely,

A divided GEMA vote,United Kalenjin and without instruments of power...No way Ruto can be president.NO WAY

[RV Pundit]

Divided Luhya, Divided Kambas and united Luos - Raila win PORK in your dreams.

Precisely,

A divided GEMA vote,United Kalenjin and without instruments of power...No way Ruto can be president.NO WAY

[Pajero]

On Kambas,you are over stretching your imaginations pundito,just go slow on what you are drinking.

[Pajero]

Ruto will get 35% luhyas,60% Kikuyus,99% Kalenjins and 60% merus.If you think that will make him president,you need to recalibrate your head.

[RV Pundit]

I did exacty that - and Ruto still win - the net effect Ruto votes reduced by half a million:). Remember Jubilee got 4% of western - zero percent of Luhyas in 2013 - and still won with 51 percent

60 percent of gema plus 35 percent of Luhyas - Ruto win

   Percentage   Total votes
William Ruto   51   7,916,283
Raila Odinga   48   7,523,979
Others   1   155,962
Turn out   74   
GAP      392,304

TUFANYE NINI TENA - Until you put Ruto to 50 percent of GEMA- hakuna maneno

Ruto will get 35% luhyas,60% Kikuyus,99% Kalenjins and 60% merus.If you think that will make him president,you need to recalibrate your head.

[RV Pundit]

I reduce GEMA yote to 60 percent - and Luhyas yote to 35 percent - I see you can squeeze Raila with 0.1% win

   Percentage   Total votes
William Ruto   49   7,663,482
Raila Odinga   50   7,776,780
Others   1   155,962
Turn out   74   
GAP      113,298

[Githunguri]

Divided Luhya, Divided Kambas and united Luos - Raila win PORK in your dreams.

Precisely,

A divided GEMA vote,United Kalenjin and without instruments of power...No way Ruto can be president.NO WAY

Kambas divided?How?

If Wetangula could not deliver Bukuau to Kibaki in 2007,How will he deliver them to Ruto?

If Mudavadi couldnt get 80% luhya vote in 2013,How many luhyas will he deliver to Ruto?

Get serious