Author Topic: The valley votes (Read 3866 times)

Pajero · « **on:** March 19, 2022, 12:27:40 PM »

Pundito,how many votes do you give Ruto in RV,I give him 67%,of possible voters (4.2 M) which is about 2.8M.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #1 on:** March 19, 2022, 01:34:55 PM »

Wacha kuguess numbers.Refer to MOASS.Rv has 14 counties.. kalenjin make the majority in 7..35 percent plus in three..Narok, Nakuru and Tranzoia.Kikuyus makes majority in two..with significant numbers in kajiado,uasin gishu and Narok.Luhyas mostly bukusu makes majority in Tranzoia and have some numbers in Nandi,uasin gishu and Nakuru.Maasai make half of kajiado and Narok.Turkana and Samburu make the rest.Ruto is sweeping kalenjin, Kikuyus and get majority of luhya, maasai,turkana and Samburu..Ruto will therefore get almost 90 percent.. consisting of 55 percent that is kalenjin share...20 percent Kikuyus..then 15 percent from the rest..worse case from my bar stool Ruto takes 88 percent.Kalenjin turnout will be moi era crazy..the sick will be pulled out of hospital

Nowayhaha · « **Reply #2 on:** March 19, 2022, 01:40:50 PM »

Whoever thinks Raila has a chance in this years election need a medical check up.

Pajero · « **Reply #3 on:** March 19, 2022, 01:55:11 PM »

Ok,just tell me how many votes Ruto gets in RV. in absolute numbers.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #4 on:** March 19, 2022, 02:55:28 PM »

Roughly 23 of national vote will be rift valley votes for Ruto..so if Ruto will be getting 8 million votes just assume about half..four million will be from rift valley...he starts that strong.

Pajero · « **Reply #5 on:** March 19, 2022, 03:34:27 PM »

And how much do you give Baba in RV

RV Pundit · « **Reply #6 on:** March 19, 2022, 05:14:45 PM »

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 03:34:27 PM

And how much do you give Baba in RV

Angalia moas..80k narok..150k kajiado..50k Tranzoia..50k pokot and 90k turkana..50k Samburu..then kidogo kidogo.. roughly 0.5m.I think registered votes ni kitu 5.5m but turnout will be around 75 to 80 percent with kalenjin turning up at 90 percent

Pajero · « **Reply #7 on:** March 19, 2022, 05:23:12 PM »

So Ruto will add 1.3 M votes and Raila will loose 0.4 M votes from what he got in 2017 in RV,is that what you are implying.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #8 on:** March 19, 2022, 05:26:27 PM »

I am typing from a bar..yes very likely Raila will loose because Ruto is running pork.. Tranzoia, turkana, kalenjin and even maasai will play homeground.. Kikuyus of RV want peace..and are most bitter with Uhuru.The luhya diaspora likely to vote Ruto too due madvd+weta

Pajero · « **Reply #9 on:** March 19, 2022, 06:40:53 PM »

I want us to be objective pundito,let's engage when you are sober,there is no way Ruto can get over 4 M in RV even if all Kalenjins were to vote.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #10 on:** March 19, 2022, 07:04:34 PM »

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 06:40:53 PM

I want us to be objective pundito,let's engage when you are sober,there is no way Ruto can get over 4 M in RV even if all Kalenjins were to vote.

I did moass when I was sober .check it out...it's very objective.Ruto start very strong in rift valley..then central will hold Nyanza..eastern split equally...western split . everywhere 50 50 with slight lead of Raila in coast n Nairobi.Prepare for big defeat.. especially now that gema iko shida..the gap will go as high as two million..not close..8.5m for Ruto..jakom looking at 6.5m...its pure old reliable ethnic maths

Pajero · « **Reply #11 on:** March 19, 2022, 07:51:11 PM »

I asked you where Ruto gets over 4 M votes in RV,yet Kalenjins registered voters are merely 2.2 M.Even if all of them vote,where does the other 2M come from.

Nowayhaha · « **Reply #12 on:** March 19, 2022, 08:27:18 PM »

How many GEMA diaspora votes are in RV?
Hint in even in 1997 they were even more that 2M...makes sense ?

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 07:51:11 PM

I asked you where Ruto gets over 4 M votes in RV,yet Kalenjins registered voters are merely 2.2 M.Even if all of them vote,where does the other 2M come from.

Pajero · « **Reply #13 on:** March 19, 2022, 08:37:46 PM »

GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.

Nowayhaha · « **Reply #14 on:** March 19, 2022, 08:39:34 PM »

LOL

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 08:37:46 PM

GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.

RV Heavy Hitter! · « **Reply #15 on:** March 19, 2022, 08:48:32 PM »

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 08:37:46 PM

GEMA diaspora votes are about 1M in RV.700K in Nakuru and 200K in Laikipia and another 100K in Kajiado,Transnzoia and UG.

Wewe ni ngombe Kweli. Kikuyus in my Uasin Gishu alone is almost is over 100K. Laikipia is Kikuyus tupu!

Pajero · « **Reply #16 on:** March 19, 2022, 08:52:54 PM »

Ok,Uasin gishu has 586,000 registered voters,what % of these are Kalenjins,Kikuyus, and others.

RV Heavy Hitter! · « **Reply #17 on:** March 19, 2022, 09:00:13 PM »

Quote from: Pajero on March 19, 2022, 08:52:54 PM

Ok,Uasin gishu has 586,000 registered voters,what % of these are Kalenjins,Kikuyus, and others.

Probably 400K are Kales 186K are Kikuyus, Luhya's and Luos. Kikuyus and Luhyas are the majority suggesting DP will scope approximately 520K votes of the total 586!

Pajero · « **Reply #18 on:** March 19, 2022, 09:01:52 PM »

It's actually 530,000 not 586,000

Pajero · « **Reply #19 on:** March 19, 2022, 09:09:21 PM »

uasingishu 530,000
Nandi 402,000
Elgeyo 211,000
Baringo 271,000

Kericho 429,000
Bomet 300,000

TOTAL 2.1M

HOW WILL YOU MANAGE 4 M IN RV.

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Author Topic: The valley votes (Read 3866 times)