Author Topic: North Eastern is Azimionated  (Read 1996 times)

Offline Pajero

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North Eastern is Azimionated
« on: March 19, 2022, 10:11:37 AM »
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Almost all the front runners in Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo &amp; Tana River for all the seats are running on Azimio tickets. The UDA ticket is a TICKET OF CHOICE for less than 5% of candidates in these counties. We will share the data once the nominations are done!</p>&mdash; Mohamed Wehliye, MBS (@WehliyeMohamed) <a href="?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2022, 10:16:33 AM »
Wanakula pesa ya Yattani.
The Borana has opened the treasury for them.
But ground based on opinion polls I have seen ni tofauti.
This is same situation that was happening in Mt Kenya
Pesa ya Uhuru na vitisho

Offline Pajero

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2022, 10:27:47 AM »
So which polls are these,latest poll indicate 70% for Azimio.Radio Africa.Mizani puts it at 65%.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2022, 10:31:45 AM »
Rarely do they get polled but here is one such.
That entire region - Isiolo,Marsabit,Mandera, Garissa,Tana RIver, Wajir - have about a million votes.
I expect maybe about 700K votes to be cast.
Generally it will be 50:50 games.
Duale alone is enough to take Yattani & State largesses.
So which polls are these,latest poll indicate 70% for Azimio.Radio Africa.Mizani puts it at 65%.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2022, 10:33:38 AM »
Ignore the last Radio Africa poll - that was clearly manipulated.
The same with crap poll from Ambitho Infotrak - that showed Ruto/Raila - at 33% :)
You cannot have Raila jumping from 35% to 49% :) without any explanation.

TIFA normally are more credible - this was their poll in Feb - Ruto was leading

Offline Pajero

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2022, 10:36:45 AM »
So let's agree going forward,we stick with TIFA and ignore the rest.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2022, 10:40:40 AM »
You got FINAL MOASS - that has margin of error of less than 2 percent.
kenya opinion polls are going to be manipulated as we approach election.
Final MOASS will never be manipulated :)
So let's agree going forward,we stick with TIFA and ignore the rest.

Offline Pajero

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2022, 10:47:04 AM »
Ok,let's wait for 9th,all of a sudden,opinion polls gave become bad .

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2022, 10:51:47 AM »
They are not bad...but you've got to be trained to be able to spot the manipulated one.
If you have 3 opinion poll saying it's 50-50
Then one opinion pollster wakes up and suddenly say it 80-20 - without any explanation then you know it's manipulated
Polls change - but you need political scientist to explain that change - if indeed there is a change.
For example - places we expect to see changes is Western, Ukambani and Mt Kenya - the rest have largely settled.
Those places - Luhyas, Kambas and GEMA - are engaged in active conversation on their political future - the Kalenjin and Luos are settled - and smaller tribes generally play 50:50 with a edge here and there .

I dont expect a lot of changes in the poll now - except the undecided - mostly 20 percent in some areas.

In short unless you anticipate some big major move in Northern Kenya - this is going to be as always
50:50 game.

It's been that way since 2002....as those small tribes just spread their risks.

There are few clan dynamism that you need to understand in each county.
Isiolo - has boranas, somalis, turkanas and merus
Marsabit - is big fight btw Borana and Garre - and rendiles.
Mandera - specific clans
Wajir - specific clan
Garissa - specific clan.

There are movers and shakers. I'd rank Duale and Yattani (due to treasury slush fund) as the main movers.

Generally despite the pastoralism links with Kalenjin - Ruto outwardly Christian push - and Raila's pro-muslim stance - balance things out.

So generally just know this will be 50:50 game.

It's low population counties - total of a million cushitic votes - with about 0.7M expected in all that huge area.

About 30 mps - about 7 governors.

Ok,let's wait for 9th,all of a sudden,opinion polls gave become bad .

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2022, 01:25:16 PM »
A fact remains since 1997,2007, 2013 and 2017 . Raila has always lost in North Eastern. In 2007,2013 and 2017 his supporters were always saying he is the front runner in North Eastern only for the results to show contrary.
2022 is no exception . In 2013 URP was the party of choice in North Eastern for a reason. 2022 UDA is the party of choice.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2022, 01:27:17 PM »

Another Fact . Opinion polls have never predicted Kenyan General elections correctly. Trust them at your on peril, next you will be sunging Raila was rigged as opinion polls whowed he is leading.

So let's agree going forward,we stick with TIFA and ignore the rest.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2022, 01:32:26 PM »
They always get it wrong.. disappear in shame for a year only to reappear..I wish someone like Charles Hornsby or I could get into that space..we would produce very very accurate.its start by understanding Kenya deeply..so you know what you're sampling

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2022, 02:40:04 PM »
Formal unveling of Azimio juggernaut - backed by 20 parties. Makes perfect sense.

Ignore the last Radio Africa poll - that was clearly manipulated.
The same with crap poll from Ambitho Infotrak - that showed Ruto/Raila - at 33% :)
You cannot have Raila jumping from 35% to 49% :) without any explanation.

TIFA normally are more credible - this was their poll in Feb - Ruto was leading
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2022, 02:56:39 PM »
Ambithos Infotrack got it wrong in 2013 and 2017 General elections. It was so damaging She did a Siberia like you for four years only to come back this year.




Tifa messed big in Msambweni but with Tom Wolf maybe can redeem themselves. Pundit of course trusts the untested Mizani  Previously he touted Radio Africa here bila wasi-wasi provided Ruto was leading. He fears Infotrak purely because Ambitho is Luo - yet they haven't even goofed once like Tifa.

Reputation-wise i would rank them as
1. Ipsos
2. Infotrak
3. Radio Africa
4. Tifa

Mizani if they stick up now maybe we can  trust them in 2027. They goof now they are DOA.



Ignore the last Radio Africa poll - that was clearly manipulated.
The same with crap poll from Ambitho Infotrak - that showed Ruto/Raila - at 33% :)
You cannot have Raila jumping from 35% to 49% :) without any explanation.

TIFA normally are more credible - this was their poll in Feb - Ruto was leading

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2022, 03:05:54 PM »
Formal unveling of Azimio juggernaut - backed by 20 parties. Makes perfect sense.

Ignore the last Radio Africa poll - that was clearly manipulated.
The same with crap poll from Ambitho Infotrak - that showed Ruto/Raila - at 33% :)
You cannot have Raila jumping from 35% to 49% :) without any explanation.

TIFA normally are more credible - this was their poll in Feb - Ruto was leading
it was done before the unveiling of Azimio...it very suspect poll that defied logic

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: North Eastern is Azimionated
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2022, 03:09:44 PM »
Ipso died..they stopped political opinion polling..they depends on Tom Wolf.Ambitho n odingas come far..you can call then odinga propaganda opinion polls..that is just Angela.I am not sure who own Mizani..they do lots of poll that shows incumbents MPs wins..I have heard they sell numbers to highest bidder..but they do a lot of them n regularly..I think even without opinion polls we know what plausible and what implausible.. opinion polls really are on the margins