Trust Opinion Polls at Your Own Peril

[Nowayhaha]

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This is what they polled in msambweni before the fall to Hustler. Check below 👇👇 pic.twitter.com/nHPO2qifVx

— John Makatiani (@JMakatiani) March 15, 2022

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[Nowayhaha]

Brown envelope Journalism. pic.twitter.com/qCGkVVh7DH

— AbenteuerLust ⋅☆⋅ (@Iamcayvooh) March 15, 2022

[Nowayhaha]

My BELOVED JUBILEE on 5.3.2022 commissioned 3 pollsters: They were given same instructions: Few days before/after Dp Ruto returns from his foreign trip release polling data showing that Hon Raila has overtaken him by 3-7%.They were told to rationalise the figure on Ruto's absence

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) March 5, 2022

[Dear Mami]

My BELOVED JUBILEE on 5.3.2022 commissioned 3 pollsters: They were given same instructions: Few days before/after Dp Ruto returns from his foreign trip release polling data showing that Hon Raila has overtaken him by 3-7%.They were told to rationalise the figure on Ruto's absence

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) March 5, 2022

But this only confirms what we've known since 2013: this ain't Jubilee's first time around the block pulling shenanigans like this. :D

Also, the data fits both camps' stories:
1) Jubilee planned this for last week.
2) KK realized this poll was coming out and tried to bury it last week.

Both fit our perception (those who've been voting for Raila) that both Jubilee and UDA are 'elections+all manner of' crooks 8) Now they're being forced to practice their games, that they both well know, on each other.  :D

[RV Pundit]

Trust MOASS; we never get it wrong; not by more than 1 percent

[patel]

Polling only helps with psyop and rigging. Hiyo tuu. Based on these fake polls it's easy to tell rigging margin.

[RV Pundit]

How is rigging possible when 95 percent of voters were identified by their biometrics - reducing ghost voting significantly
When polling station results are final...removing the correction/adjustment rigging that use to happen at const and KICC level.
When polling station are max 500-700 votes...meaning riggers have to rig a whole lot of 50,000 polling station - granular - enough to leave evidence all over.
When results are transmitted electronically - at least provisional - immediately its cast.
When people are armed with phones with social media- and agents can submit.
When most areas - each party has support - and hawk-eyed agents


Rigging that happened - happened in few places like Mandera - where biometrics identified about 89 percent - suspiciously low. It padding of few votes here and there - not brazen.

The last rigging that happened - was in 2007 - when Kibaki kidnapped ROS and forced them to change figures.

If someone intend to rig 2022 - they have to do it brazenly - because it's very difficult to do it without leaving a trail of evidence.

And now that all parties almost have strong support everywhere except Luo and Kalenjin strongholds - rigging will be even harder to pull - as committed party agents wont allow it.

Polling only helps with psyop and rigging. Hiyo tuu. Based on these fake polls it's easy to tell rigging margin.

[Dear Mami]

Pundit, and yet despite all that, IEBC straight-up refused to open the servers under SCORK orders. To this day, we have no idea what data is in it. And the court drew the conclusion that the evidence hidden must be damning for them and nullified the whole thing. This will forever put a stain on those results. Remember, in 2013, Mutunga's court REFUSED to make such orders (to open servers and access evidence, etc). And we all know what happened to poor Msando days to elections. So don't blame Raila supporters for believing there were shenanigans. Blame IEBC and Jubilee Jubilee should've been shouting louder than NASA about opening the server, but they were fighting with IEBC to keep them closed.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya elections are NOT electronic - servers contain nothing.
IEBC never refused to open the servers - it's just the court gave very short orders.
They were given copies of logs?
Omwenga who was my lecturer was acting for court - and I think his report sunk IEBC unfairly
Omwansa was year ahead of us - and was acting for Jubilee.

What do you think the server has? Raila victory? In what form?

Server in 2013 collapsed after 30 percent of voters were in....that didnt stop Jubilee from winning. The margin didnt change. The same in 2010 constitution...the margin didnt change...it got stuck at 31 versus 67 percent. Ruto didnt cry rigging.

Pure sciences - when about 2 percent of polling stations have randomly reported - DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE In the results.

The number will stay constant.

In 2022 - we will call the results after an hour - because if polling stations are randomly reporting - unless it very very close - the margins will remain constant.

And this the basis of opinion polling or social science - they sample randomly a representation of the population.

Raila LOST fair and SQUARE in 2013 and 2017 - MOASS predicted it to the DOT.

Come august - Raila will LOSE by the 2013 margins - if not 2017 margins. It's likely he will be beaten by close to 1.5m votes.

Pundit, and yet despite all that, IEBC straight-up refused to open the servers under SCORK orders. To this day, we have no idea what data is in it. And the court drew the conclusion that the evidence hidden must be damning for them and nullified the whole thing. This will forever put a stain on those results. Remember, in 2013, Mutunga's court REFUSED to make such orders (to open servers and access evidence, etc). And we all know what happened to poor Msando days to elections. So don't blame Raila supporters for believing there were shenanigans. Blame IEBC and Jubilee Jubilee should've been shouting louder than NASA about opening the server, but they were fighting with IEBC to keep them closed.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

DP has never lost an election on his own. Rest assured he will campaign, shake hands, and cajole folks in cities and villages until he is inside State House. As a non GEMA, he will perform well outside the Mountain better than Kibaki and Uhuru, and yes as a non-luo, he will do exceptionally well in the mountain. Watch the space!

[Pajero]

Opinion polls are not bad,they only become bad when they don't align to your imaginations.