Raila may pull a 2 vs 42.

[KenyanPlato]

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I am seeing central may be consolidating towards ruto and rv kalenjin is gone to ruto. There is also a trend of where the rest of kenya is consolidating towards azimio. What this means is that the more ruto gets votes and defection from kikuyus the more his supporters in other areas flee. This may be unintended but it may end up being a referendum against kikuyu kalenjin hegemony. Very interesting race is shaping up. The moas is going to slide slip and fall this season

[Nefertiti]

The Mt Kenya consolidation in UDA is fake news. Propaganda is only marginally effective. They are split.

[KenyanPlato]

The Mt Kenya consolidation in UDA is fake news. Propaganda is only marginally effective. They are split.

How,do,you know? Centro is 90% Ruto. Take it to the bank..

[Nefertiti]

The Mt Kenya consolidation in UDA is fake news. Propaganda is only marginally effective. They are split.

How,do,you know?

Same way you know 

Ruto is sponsoring headlines about Central leaders defecting en mass to UDA. While the truth is most MPs already settled on either side. Karua and Kiunjuri have joined UDA for instance - yet it was a Star headline.

Murang'a na Meru imewakalia ngumu. Gema is split badly for Ruto not Raila.

[Dear Mami]

What about the opinion polls, @Robina? They have RAO at 10% in Kirinyaga, 15% Embu, And like lower 20s in the rest except for Kiambu at 35% and Meru/Tharaka higher 20s. Also, lots of Kyuk handles bitterly insulting Uhuru on Twitter/FB/YT, and they seem to have grown worse since Sagana 3.

[Nefertiti]

What about the opinion polls, @Robina? They have RAO at 10% in Kirinyaga, 15% Embu, And like lower 20s in the rest except for Kiambu at 35% and Meru/Tharaka higher 20s. Also, lots of Kyuk handles bitterly insulting Uhuru on Twitter/FB/YT, and they seem to have grown worse since Sagana 3.

Propaganda 101. Polls are a dime a dozen. Bots-spam can spew anything.

Just look at Murang'a: at 75% shouldn't it be full-house UDA? But majority of Sabinas, Nduatis, Kimaris, Kiganos are in Azimio. Meru was supposed to be Ruto landslide but alas! the frontrunners - Kiraitu, Kawira - are unmoved... the MOAS had to be quickly revised to avoid embarassing questions.

Outside Gema look at Luhya MPs exodus to Azimio after "earthquake".. here you are told MPs have been bought by Gideon so MOAS remain solid Ruto.

Ukambani is the most laughable - 30% Ruto who has only 3 elected followers. "The ground is hostile" cause bots on twitter have said so.

[KenyanPlato]

What about the opinion polls, @Robina? They have RAO at 10% in Kirinyaga, 15% Embu, And like lower 20s in the rest except for Kiambu at 35% and Meru/Tharaka higher 20s. Also, lots of Kyuk handles bitterly insulting Uhuru on Twitter/FB/YT, and they seem to have grown worse since Sagana 3.

Anyone,denying ruto strength in Central is deluded.

[KenyanPlato]

I agree that moas may have a lot of confirmation bias. We will soon see polls from different credible pollsters and we may then see if the confirmation bias in moas is real or imagined

[Dear Mami]

Well, anecdotally, I've met very few Kyuks supporting Baba. The ones I know just seem very bitter with Uhuru. At the same time, I highly doubt Pundit Ukambani numbers, because I don't know a single Kamba willing to vote for Ruto. And this was before Kalonzo move. Maybe huko ushambani things are different? But I'm yet to meet a Baba-supporting Kyuk or a Ruto-supporting Kamba so far, in my Nairobi circles. Unfortunately, I don't know many Luhyas so I don't have an impression of how the ones in Nai may be feeling.

[Nowayhaha]

It could have played out this way but the biggest mistake Raila made was handshake and BBI. It confused the Anti Gema Electorate.
Now Kenyan politics has always been either Anti Gema or Anti Raila.
The Anti Raila electorate is still united and ready to go due to Raila being on the ballot. The Anti Gema electorate was disunified by Handshake and for the first time since Independence there is no steong GEMA candidate. The Anti GEMA card this time around is off thw decks.

I am seeing central may be consolidating towards ruto and rv kalenjin is gone to ruto. There is also a trend of where the rest of kenya is consolidating towards azimio. What this means is that the more ruto gets votes and defection from kikuyus the more his supporters in other areas flee. This may be unintended but it may end up being a referendum against kikuyu kalenjin hegemony. Very interesting race is shaping up. The moas is going to slide slip and fall this season

[Nowayhaha]

Im 100% sure by Aug 10 you will have resigned from this board when Ruto wins the elections.

The Mt Kenya consolidation in UDA is fake news. Propaganda is only marginally effective. They are split.

[Dear Mami]

It could have played out this way but the biggest mistake Raila made was handshake and BBI. It confused the Anti Gema Electorate.
Now Kenyan politics has always been either Anti Gema or Anti Raila.
The Anti Raila electorate is still united and ready to go due to Raila being on the ballot. The Anti Gema electorate was disunified by Handshake and for the first time since Independence there is no steong GEMA candidate. The Anti GEMA card this time around is off thw decks.

I am seeing central may be consolidating towards ruto and rv kalenjin is gone to ruto. There is also a trend of where the rest of kenya is consolidating towards azimio. What this means is that the more ruto gets votes and defection from kikuyus the more his supporters in other areas flee. This may be unintended but it may end up being a referendum against kikuyu kalenjin hegemony. Very interesting race is shaping up. The moas is going to slide slip and fall this season

The polls seem to be showing that as elections come closer, "Kila mtu anarudi kwao/nyumbani." All indications in that Mizani are that Ruto is slowly being treated as the GEMA candidate, both by Kyuks and Non-Kyuks. It's not neat like a pure Gema election. So Raila is getting a piece in Mt. Kenya and Ruto a piece among Baba supporters. But generally, more and more, the old contours are starting to show. Only standout is Bungoma, where Weta has seriously impressed! Beating Rao 60%< Otherwise, seems to me most people are returning back to their old camps. They were prolly apathetic and have become more involved as the election draws closer.

[KenyanPlato]

Raila biggest gain is the state machinery. With polls close the state machinery is the wildest card. Ruto has no way to counter state machinery. All uhuru has to do,is sow much confusion in central. This allows for rigging or manipulation to happen

[Dear Mami]

Raila biggest gain is the state machinery. With polls close the state machinery is the wildest card. Ruto has no way to counter state machinery. All uhuru has to do,is sow much confusion in central. This allows for rigging or manipulation to happen

Agreed. Again, we have to wait for the traditional pollsters to start posting their numbers since this Mizani is a funny new animal I've never even heard of  Could be fully in the pocket of some political personality.  But it's showing 49% Ruto vs 45% Baba, before Kalonzo move or Munya DPork. If Raila chooses Munya, those percentages would come even closer than the 4%. Maybe ending up with 1%-3% margin with increase of Meru and Kamba vote in RAO basket. Which is recipe for PEV, imo. 

[Fairandbalanced]

[Dear Mami]

No need to go there. Kibaki didn't campaign. Was in a wheelchair. Did 10 years and is alive as we speak. Raila obviously can't do ten years but his mind is still ok and he doesn't need to do anything too vigorous. Guy still plays football!:D He can't keep up with Ruto, of course, who is as energetic as Raila in his younger days. But I'm sure he'll be fine. God willing.

[Nowayhaha]

In 2013 Raila had statemachinery as Prime Minister , had IEBC in his pockets and all major Media stations doing his bidding but still lost the election. Right now he is worse off. This will be his worst performing election apart from 1997.

Raila biggest gain is the state machinery. With polls close the state machinery is the wildest card. Ruto has no way to counter state machinery. All uhuru has to do,is sow much confusion in central. This allows for rigging or manipulation to happen

[Nowayhaha]

Fact remains that Kenyan polls have never predicted correctly any Kenyan General elections. Trust them ar your own peril.

It could have played out this way but the biggest mistake Raila made was handshake and BBI. It confused the Anti Gema Electorate.
Now Kenyan politics has always been either Anti Gema or Anti Raila.
The Anti Raila electorate is still united and ready to go due to Raila being on the ballot. The Anti Gema electorate was disunified by Handshake and for the first time since Independence there is no steong GEMA candidate. The Anti GEMA card this time around is off thw decks.

I am seeing central may be consolidating towards ruto and rv kalenjin is gone to ruto. There is also a trend of where the rest of kenya is consolidating towards azimio. What this means is that the more ruto gets votes and defection from kikuyus the more his supporters in other areas flee. This may be unintended but it may end up being a referendum against kikuyu kalenjin hegemony. Very interesting race is shaping up. The moas is going to slide slip and fall this season

The polls seem to be showing that as elections come closer, "Kila mtu anarudi kwao/nyumbani." All indications in that Mizani are that Ruto is slowly being treated as the GEMA candidate, both by Kyuks and Non-Kyuks. It's not neat like a pure Gema election. So Raila is getting a piece in Mt. Kenya and Ruto a piece among Baba supporters. But generally, more and more, the old contours are starting to show. Only standout is Bungoma, where Weta has seriously impressed! Beating Rao 60%< Otherwise, seems to me most people are returning back to their old camps. They were prolly apathetic and have become more involved as the election draws closer.

[Nowayhaha]

In 2007 and 2013 you same people kept saying he is 4th, In 2017 you kept singing he is 5th. Come Aug 09 you will find out who the real 5th is. He can swear hi.self in again as "peoples" president  .you can claim 2nd.

[bimnji]

unfortunately this is the argument I am hearing with a lot of deluded kikuyus that are supporting Raila, ati he will only rule for 5 years. They are very silly to think that, the way the ODM branch look like they are very quite right now and rightfully so, because they dont want to rock the boat that is about to dock in canaan. Once baba takes over, ODM takes over and who knows but I am sure they will not let Raila just rule for only 5 years and not after Raila has been tortured in the polls for this long.