Maina Kamanda, Dennis Waweru and PK gamble on Raila

[RV Pundit]

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It appears it been waste of 5yrs leaking Raila clean.

Appears ODM keen to have Weta brother Tim as governor, his fellow Bukusu Sifuna as Senator but can give them Women Rep

Meanwhile Kamanda want to be Nairobi Senator. Waweru seem to have accepted to be Tim's deputy governor.

Ngatia is working his friend Uhuru - and is hoping Jubilee will negotiate directly for him.

PK may make Deputy President - unless Martha Karua beat him for that. I think Raila will favour Martha Karua - it's give him credibility & he can rediscover his "reformist" credentials - otherwise PK and his Muranga billionaires gives him money - and their chopper - nothing more.

[Pajero]

Gavana ni Ngatia,Wanyonyi is good but fate not on his side this time,matrix imekataa.too bad.Sifuna will be senator,Kamanda will go back to starehe to square with jaguar.

[RV Pundit]

That is giving free pass to Pkosgei Sakaja or Wanjiru - I think Ruto will probably stick with Wanjiru - and Sakaja will retain senate.

Tim is the most popular candidate...hii ya Ngatia kicheko biggest

Poor Kamanda - after all the 5yrs - you're sending him back to Starehe where he was already rejected.

Gavana ni Ngatia,Wanyonyi is good but fate not on his side this time,matrix imekataa.too bad.Sifuna will be senator,Kamanda will go back to starehe to square with jaguar.

[Pajero]

Ruto has no choice than to front the fake bishop,Kikuyus cannot let go presidency and Nairobi governorship at same time.Thats why Ngatia has a head start.Sakaja guy is dead on arrival.kalenjins in langata don't even reach 50,000.

[RV Pundit]

Nobody knows Pkosgei is Kalenjin - he is riding on comspolitan Nairobi. I think Wanjiru unless she messes up like Wangui Ngirici will nick it and Sakaja retains senate.

Ultimately we have to see how Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya and Kambas want to play this.

Dumping Tim - will cause Luhyas to vote Sakaja. Can Sakaja get Mt kenya votes - hard to tell - but he will collect maybe another 10 percent UDA votes - so he will max out 25-30 percent. Can Ruto deliver Mt kenya without Wanjiru. Ngumu sana.

Luos will back whoever Jakom wants - Ngatia likely because Uhuru will insist. So that give him small headstart....if he gets 30 percent of GEMA...very unlikely...he goes to 25 percent....plus another 10 percent from ODM/Jubilee - so max yake ni around 35-40 percent.

So it's likely going to be Ngatia (start with Luos) versus Wanjiru (start with majority of GEMA angry Luhyas)...

And Wanjiru - the fake pastor/rev will become the new Sonko or Kanunu.

Senate - Sakaja takes it bila maneno. Sifuna and old Kamanda are dead on arrival.

Ruto has no choice than to front the fake bishop,Kikuyus cannot let go presidency and Nairobi governorship at same time.Thats why Ngatia has a head start.Sakaja guy is dead on arrival.kalenjins in langata don't even reach 50,000.

[Pajero]

Glad you are now seeing the dynamics.In short,Ngatia is your next Nairobi gavana.Hiyo kizungu mingi achana nayo.

[RV Pundit]

Ngatia is well know Raila and Uhuru project - I dont see how Nairobeans will elect a project.

Glad you are now seeing the dynamics.In short,Ngatia is your next Nairobi gavana.Hiyo kizungu mingi achana nayo.

[Pajero]

If they elected a thug in the name of sonko,what stops them from electing Ngatia.By the he starts with 70% GEMA, add Baba base,done deal.

[RV Pundit]

Sonko was people project. You clearly dont know politics. Ngojea August. He will only get half of Luo votes. You dont just emerge from a hole and want to be elected Nairobi Governor - county of 2.5 million plus votes! Utashangaa...Nairobi is almost size of Nyanza.

This is a fight btw tim, sakaja and wanjiru - if tim get supported by Azimio he wins. If Wanjiru join azimio or run away from UDA - Sakaja could win.

But money now really is on Wanjiru - she just need to avoid tripping - she controls the slum dwellers who vote in nomination

If they elected a thug in the name of sonko,what stops them from electing Ngatia.By the he starts with 70% GEMA, add Baba base,done deal.

[Pragmatic]

Gavana ni Ngatia,Wanyonyi is good but fate not on his side this time,matrix imekataa.too bad.Sifuna will be senator,Kamanda will go back to starehe to square with jaguar.

[RV Pundit]

If Azimio put Tim..he wins.People like his humility and leadership.He has proven himself in Westland.Ngatia project is going nowhere...that is just gifting Wanjiru seat

[Pragmatic]

Incidentally his (Ngatia) association with WsR is well known. His big MES deal was with Rachel Ruto (by extension WsR) as silent partner pulling the strings.

He is going absolutely nowhere in Azimio... Wacha tukule pesa yake (ya Wananchi).

If Azimio put Tim..he wins.People like his humility and leadership.He has proven himself in Westland.Ngatia project is going nowhere...that is just gifting Wanjiru seat