Raila Taking a Break to Restrategize-Did UDA ANC FORD K show Early Cards ?

[Nowayhaha]

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In 2002 when NDP merged with KANU . The after effects were bringing Kibaki Ngilu and Wamalwa together.
As per 1997 results .The numbers had NAK winning.
Now having seen the potential unity of UDA/ANC/FORDK
Will raila rethink and try to tosha someone else ?
Will he Tosha Kalonzo will he tosha Mudavadi ?
Me thinks this unity should have been unveiled during Coalition Signing agreement. Just like TNA and URPs

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-26-ruto-on-a-nakuru-charm-offensive-as-raila-takes-strategy-break/

[RV Pundit]

Yeah you're right - Ruto has shown his hand early - and Raila if he has been listening & not sleeping in his tours - has seen his magic has gone off - nobody excited about him - not even in Luo Nyanza- he is probably aware of the real numbers from opinion polls - and probably uhuru-gideon are also working on getting him a reality check.

When it come to Raila - he can decide to become a king maker again.

If he has a reality check - he will realize needs to cobble together anti-Ruto coalition - that can prize away Mt kenya votes.

It maybe too late - if Azimio bill passes - they have two months to perform a gamble:) - with their initial timeline - deadline would be next week

Note : 2002 - NAK was not gonna win anything without LDP - because Kikuyus simply abandoned Kibaki - rejoined KANU en-masse. The hammorrage would only be stemmed with Kibaki tosha - otherwise Moi had it all wrapped. Raila had clearly identified the major plank of Moi moves was Mt Kenya vote - and only way to conter it was Mt Kenya candidate.

In 2002 when NDP merged with KANU . The after effects were bringing Kibaki Ngilu and Wamalwa together.
As per 1997 results .The numbers had NAK winning.
Now having seen the potential unity of UDA/ANC/FORDK
Will raila rethink and try to tosha someone else ?
Will he Tosha Kalonzo will he tosha Mudavadi ?
Me thinks this unity should have been unveiled during Coalition Signing agreement. Just like TNA and URPs

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-26-ruto-on-a-nakuru-charm-offensive-as-raila-takes-strategy-break/

[RV Pundit]

Raila 3rd option is simply back Ruto and do another handshake Either way he is sc.rewed; He has hit a cul-de-sac; Kalonzo is not in the mood to be cheated again.

[RV Pundit]

He can back NEW OKA

[Pajero]

Meanwhile the gap has now reduced to 5%,Ruto 45%,Raila 40% as you continue yapping.We are coming.we haven't even started campaigning.

[Pragmatic]

Yeah Pajero.....!!! These guys are nauseating.... dammnnnn.

Our friends here keep consoling each other with yarns and yarns as they are slowly being boiled in steaming water. Watajua hawajui...

Meanwhile the gap has now reduced to 5%,Ruto 45%,Raila 40% as you continue yapping.We are coming.we haven't even started campaigning.

[RV Pundit]

Angela Ambitho I thought said there was no gap - it was statistical deadheat at 33 versus 32 - And Mzee goes for one rally - then one strategic day off - in Atwoli - a confirmed fool - house.

Yeah Pajero.....!!! These guys are nauseating.... dammnnnn.

Our friends here keep consoling each other with yarns and yarns as they are slowly being boiled in steaming water. Watajua hawajui...

Meanwhile the gap has now reduced to 5%,Ruto 45%,Raila 40% as you continue yapping.We are coming.we haven't even started campaigning.

[patel]

36% to 40% in a week that Azimio la mtu mmoja lost Mudavadi 4% and wetangula 3%. Based on those numbers I would say Jacon is at 30% or higher twenties. What changed and which region did he gain?

Meanwhile the gap has now reduced to 5%,Ruto 45%,Raila 40% as you continue yapping.We are coming.we haven't even started campaigning.

[RV Pundit]

Even Raila girlfriend has dumped him

Nakuru hoiyeee!
3…2…1 pic.twitter.com/yGjVKiqiMM

— Susan Kihika (@susankihika) January 26, 2022

/photo/1

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In 2002 when NDP merged with KANU . The after effects were bringing Kibaki Ngilu and Wamalwa together.
As per 1997 results .The numbers had NAK winning.
Now having seen the potential unity of UDA/ANC/FORDK
Will raila rethink and try to tosha someone else ?
Will he Tosha Kalonzo will he tosha Mudavadi ?
Me thinks this unity should have been unveiled during Coalition Signing agreement. Just like TNA and URPs

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-26-ruto-on-a-nakuru-charm-offensive-as-raila-takes-strategy-break/

There is no Kikuyu to tosha this time, and even with that, the numbers Ruto will bring in RV will be unprecedented. Pokots and Turkanas, for the first time, will vote for DP. With increased Luhya margins, especially in Bunga and Transnzoia, the "toshad" candidate will still face tyranny of Numbers. Uhuru in 2002 had no numbers in his backyard, unlike DP!

[Nowayhaha]

 RVHH , You disappoint  on this one , Ive clearly stated who he might Tosha , remember  Mudavadi deal is not yet sealed .  Tosharing a Kikuyu candidate will only split the Mt Kenya vote as it did in 2002 .
Goinf back to the drawing board and Tosharing Mudavadi might create problems for Ruto , From my own analysis if he toshas Kalonzo still that ticket will be beaten with  a few margins . Though it could actually affect GEMA turnout as they wont feel threatened like a Raila candidacy .

In 2002 when NDP merged with KANU . The after effects were bringing Kibaki Ngilu and Wamalwa together.
As per 1997 results .The numbers had NAK winning.
Now having seen the potential unity of UDA/ANC/FORDK
Will raila rethink and try to tosha someone else ?
Will he Tosha Kalonzo will he tosha Mudavadi ?
Me thinks this unity should have been unveiled during Coalition Signing agreement. Just like TNA and URPs

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-26-ruto-on-a-nakuru-charm-offensive-as-raila-takes-strategy-break/

There is no Kikuyu to tosha this time, and even with that, the numbers Ruto will bring in RV will be unprecedented. Pokots and Turkanas, for the first time, will vote for DP. With increased Luhya margins, especially in Bunga and Transnzoia, the "toshad" candidate will still face tyranny of Numbers. Uhuru in 2002 had no numbers in his backyard, unlike DP!

[Nowayhaha]

Kikuyu never rejoined KANU en-mass simply because as it was then just like now  . Moi was the Boogeyman as Raila is now.  You like analyzing things hypothetically and from the lenses of the side you were supporting at that particular time .
Its like saying now because Uhuru is supporting Raila  Kikuyus have joined  Azimio en mass . Typical Raila/ODM supporters

Note : 2002 - NAK was not gonna win anything without LDP - because Kikuyus simply abandoned Kibaki - rejoined KANU en-masse. The hammorrage would only be stemmed with Kibaki tosha - otherwise Moi had it all wrapped. Raila had clearly identified the major plank of Moi moves was Mt Kenya vote - and only way to conter it was Mt Kenya candidate.

In 2002 when NDP merged with KANU . The after effects were bringing Kibaki Ngilu and Wamalwa together.
As per 1997 results .The numbers had NAK winning.
Now having seen the potential unity of UDA/ANC/FORDK
Will raila rethink and try to tosha someone else ?
Will he Tosha Kalonzo will he tosha Mudavadi ?
Me thinks this unity should have been unveiled during Coalition Signing agreement. Just like TNA and URPs

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-26-ruto-on-a-nakuru-charm-offensive-as-raila-takes-strategy-break/

[RV Pundit]

I suspect you're maDVD man in the disguise or youre overly worried for nothing
Let assume Raila say maDVD Tosha.
Let assume Ruto immediately loses all Luhya votes - let use MoASS - roughly 12 percent of all Ruto votes (53) - will come from madvd
So immediately Ruto drops to 41 percent.
Let assume Luos stick - with maDVD. Those are Raila cows.
Now big questions what would be GEMA impact - for maDVD - will he perform better than Raila at 35 percent? (MOASS generosity) - very likely
Will he obliterates Ruto? Very unlikely
Let assume they go 50-50 in Mt kenya (though Ruto direct injection support will be hard to uproot) - so Ruto loses 3 more percentages
He will now be polling at 38 percent.
Ruto at that point will need Kambas - and he will above 50 percent.
That is also assuming maDVD is able to win Raila constituency.
Let assume kenyans will just play along a project
As you can see there is a lot of assumption - and all Ruto will need to do is bring Kalonzo in.
MaDVD total Luhyas in UDA column is about 1.1M - he brings about half - and Ruto earned the other half
Kalonzo can bring 1.2M to Ruto

So as you can see there are so MANY assumptions.

Kibaki had an idiotic proffesor Wanjohi from JKUAT do this Mudavadi experiment - project - and it failed.

RVHH , You disappoint  on this one , Ive clearly stated who he might Tosha , remember  Mudavadi deal is not yet sealed .  Tosharing a Kikuyu candidate will only split the Mt Kenya vote as it did in 2002 .
Goinf back to the drawing board and Tosharing Mudavadi might create problems for Ruto , From my own analysis if he toshas Kalonzo still that ticket will be beaten with  a few margins . Though it could actually affect GEMA turnout as they wont feel threatened like a Raila candidacy .

[RV Pundit]

You idiot just described yourself.
I am not analyzing anything based on what I believe - I am recalling facts.
Fact is I was against KANU with my everything. I HAVE NEVER NEVER SUPPORTED MOI.
I campaigned for NARC with intensity.
I belonged to DP - NAK - NARC.
Everyone in our family belonged to DP - from the day it was formed in 1991 - my father was one Kibaki most loyal supporter and campaigner - he knew kibaki for his intellect and leadership - and I grew up into DP.
In entire constituency - we were only two families - and KIbaki use to get 3 or 4 votes -my father, my mother and other family. Matiba in 1992 - got 1 vote in the entire constituency. Jaramogi got 1,000 votes and I remember Ford-Kenya guy in our village - he was only one - was beaten blue by Kalenjin after Jaramogi took initial lead in 1992 - I think they started with Luo Nyanza votes - but votes he got was mostly Luo tea pluckers.

I was with Franklin Bett and Raila in christmas of 25th 2002.
Franklin Bett after being fired from statehouse - had become bitter - and Raila had made him RV Narc Chief Campaigner
I endured a lot of muddy days - we were busy campaigning for narc - I spent late nights - so many times did I risk getting beating from KANU thugs.

But fact remain Uhuru polled very respectable 33 percent - and you know where the votes game from - 2/3 from Kalenjin and he was nearly polling half with Kibaki in GEMA - despite NARC wave.

Immediately Moi named Uhuru - the entire GEMA came rushing to KANU - it was very embarrassing. That was first redflag for me that we had been supporting DP - without realizing it's was just a TRIBAL PARTY.

When Njenga Karume - who had been financing Kibaki - left - all Kibaki could say - was - YOU TOO!!

Kikuyu never rejoined KANU en-mass simply because as it was then just like now  . Moi was the Boogeyman as Raila is now.  You like analyzing things hypothetically and from the lenses of the side you were supporting at that particular time .
Its like saying now because Uhuru is supporting Raila  Kikuyus have joined  Azimio en mass . Typical Raila/ODM supporters

[Nowayhaha]

RV , One thing you have never understood is whay is Uhuru and Mois game plan ? Well you didnt believe they would back up Raila ?
Ruto has been with Uhuru since 2001 apart from a short 3 Months in 2007. Yet now Ruto has become his No 1 enemy.
Well I think Uhurus and Mois plan was to bring OKA and Azimio together and try to convince Raila to support Mudavadi.
Uhuru has a soft spot for Mudavadi , heck in 2013 he almost handed him the presidency , in 2002 Mudavadi was his running mate. This why I look at Mudavadi as the wild card.
Also looking at 2002,2013 and 2017 events Mudavadi has always flipflopped on his major decisions .He was in Rainbow in 2002 against Uhuru he eventually became his running mate. In 2013 out of all odds he decided to leave Raila for Jubilee only to decide to run, In 2007 he was to run only to come up with NASA. There is still a possibilty he might go back to Raila if the pen is not put on paper.
If he does that he would have injured Rutos forrays in western  same way as Uhuru 2013 Misadventure which cost him a big junk of  Luhya votes

I suspect you're maDVD man in the disguise or youre overly worried for nothing
Let assume Raila say maDVD Tosha.
Let assume Ruto immediately loses all Luhya votes - let use MoASS - roughly 12 percent of all Ruto votes (53) - will come from madvd
So immediately Ruto drops to 41 percent.
Let assume Luos stick - with maDVD. Those are Raila cows.
Now big questions what would be GEMA impact - for maDVD - will he perform better than Raila at 35 percent? (MOASS generosity) - very likely
Will he obliterates Ruto? Very unlikely
Let assume they go 50-50 in Mt kenya (though Ruto direct injection support will be hard to uproot) - so Ruto loses 3 more percentages
He will now be polling at 38 percent.
Ruto at that point will need Kambas - and he will above 50 percent.
That is also assuming maDVD is able to win Raila constituency.
Let assume kenyans will just play along a project
As you can see there is a lot of assumption - and all Ruto will need to do is bring Kalonzo in.
MaDVD total Luhyas in UDA column is about 1.1M - he brings about half - and Ruto earned the other half
Kalonzo can bring 1.2M to Ruto

So as you can see there are so MANY assumptions.

Kibaki had an idiotic proffesor Wanjohi from JKUAT do this Mudavadi experiment - project - and it failed.

RVHH , You disappoint  on this one , Ive clearly stated who he might Tosha , remember  Mudavadi deal is not yet sealed .  Tosharing a Kikuyu candidate will only split the Mt Kenya vote as it did in 2002 .
Goinf back to the drawing board and Tosharing Mudavadi might create problems for Ruto , From my own analysis if he toshas Kalonzo still that ticket will be beaten with  a few margins . Though it could actually affect GEMA turnout as they wont feel threatened like a Raila candidacy .

[RV Pundit]

Admittedly I dont know nor understand Uhuru succession gameplan; it most bizzare; byzantine; and overly complicated; even guys around him are leaving in drove to Ruto because his gameplan is confusing.

Gideon has his gameplan. Uhuru has is gameplan. Gideon see Ruto as competitor. Uhuru is done - and his interested in his legacy (or lack of one).

As for Raila - that one is convinced he will get many votes and beat Ruto - nobody can convince him to drop his final final bid.

Just so you know - I am still 50-50 convinced that Uhuru is working with and for Ruto - he is almost trying to make himself and any of his project unpopular by doing unpopular things.

RV , One thing you have never understood is whay is Uhuru and Mois game plan ? Well you didnt believe they would back up Raila ?
Ruto has been with Uhuru since 2001 apart from a short 3 Months in 2007. Yet now Ruto has become his No 1 enemy.
Well I think Uhurus and Mois plan was to bring OKA and Azimio together and try to convince Raila to support Mudavadi.
Uhuru has a soft spot for Mudavadi , heck in 2013 he almost handed him the presidency , in 2002 Mudavadi was his running mate. This why I look at Mudavadi as the wild card.
Also looking at 2002,2013 and 2017 events Mudavadi has always flipflopped on his major decisions .He was in Rainbow in 2002 against Uhuru he eventually became his running mate. In 2013 out of all odds he decided to leave Raila for Jubilee only to decide to run, In 2007 he was to run only to come up with NASA. There is still a possibilty he might go back to Raila if the pen is not put on paper.
If he does that he would have injured Rutos forrays in western  same way as Uhuru 2013 Misadventure which cost him a big junk of  Luhya votes