Advice To Kalonzo -Do a 2007 -Pitia KatiKati

[Nowayhaha]

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Kalonzo has a golden chance of being in Government.
He should be on the ballot and do a Post Election Deal.
He will reap big . He made major mistakes in 2013 and 2017.
It will be madness making the same mistake.
He got it right in 2007 and became the VP. He should play his cards right this time.

[RV Pundit]

His best move is to ask azimio crowd to crown him and dump raila as he is unelectable.That has been his gameplay

[Nowayhaha]

Not that even with being given the Crown by ODM will make him win the presidency . 15 years out of power will be alot.
He needs to be in the next Govt Period. The only sure way is to run and negotiate with Ruto post election.

His best move is to ask azimio crowd to crown him and dump raila as he is unelectable.That has been his gameplay

[RV Pundit]

Opposition leader sio mbaya..it's the same deal Ruto will give him..max two CSs..that equivalent to two minority leaders.Ruto already has muthama n crew..to take care of.Kalonzo best move is ask raila to Stepdown...for him..he can put a big fight in restless Mt Kenya than raila who is unelectable

[RV Pundit]

Your suggestion is next best option.Horrible decision is to back Raila

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Kalonzo has a golden chance of being in Government.
He should be on the ballot and do a Post Election Deal.
He will reap big . He made major mistakes in 2013 and 2017.
It will be madness making the same mistake.
He got it right in 2007 and became the VP. He should play his cards right this time.

With that move, he will take away over one million of Azimio votes. I'm sure Uhuru and Assimio sponsors will pay him handily to support the project, and cash out instead of katikati or costly moves. Even with that I think his votes will not be enough for 'baba'

[Nowayhaha]

RV, You do sometimes dissapoint , anyway just an aspect of being a Human Being .
In Kenyan constitution there is no leader of opposition . Luckily for Kalonzo Mudavadi and Raila they have been VP before so the continue enjoying the Perksreason they have been comfortable in cold .
Two CSs you say is alot compared to Minority leaders which he will have to share with ODM .In the negotiations with Ruto he can get CS, PS, CASs, Ambasodors , Parastatal heads , Board Members you name it . Yes he can decide to do a handshake after Election while in a coalition with ODM but he will come with  an upper hand when he runs alone .Also it 100% evident based on previous experiences that Raila will try to undercut him once they lose elections . Best is for Kalonzo to become the checkmater of Raila post 2022 elections he stands to gain more , he can even redeem himself and by so doing become Karonjo again and boost him for 2027 elections depending on how the political scenario will play post 2022 .

Opposition leader sio mbaya..it's the same deal Ruto will give him..max two CSs..that equivalent to two minority leaders.Ruto already has muthama n crew..to take care of.Kalonzo best move is ask raila to Stepdown...for him..he can put a big fight in restless Mt Kenya than raila who is unelectable

[Nowayhaha]

You start of badly the conclude well.

Even with that I think his votes will not be enough for 'baba'
That above there should be the premises of his decision making .In 2013 he took a gamble because there was a slim chance just silm that without RV voting Uhuru to the man , RAO would sneak in .
In 2022 Its crystal clear Ruto is winning . He needs to play his cards well.

Kalonzo has a golden chance of being in Government.
He should be on the ballot and do a Post Election Deal.
He will reap big . He made major mistakes in 2013 and 2017.
It will be madness making the same mistake.
He got it right in 2007 and became the VP. He should play his cards right this time.

With that move, he will take away over one million of Azimio votes. I'm sure Uhuru and Assimio sponsors will pay him handily to support the project, and cash out instead of katikati or costly moves. Even with that I think his votes will not be enough for 'baba'

[RV Pundit]

He has the Foreign affairs ministry and sports one for taking if he talks to Ruto. But he is overly ambitious and want to be PORK or DPORK. I therefore see a conundrum.

Kalonzo best moves
1) Force Uhuru and Raila to back him - if he can get 50 percent backing of GEMA, solid Luo block, solid Kamba block and half Luhyas he will be very competitive - it will go 50-50 with Ruto.
2) Make pre-election deal with Ruto for 2-3 CS, PS and the works - and save Kenya the need for election.
3) Make post-election deal with Ruto - and get 1CS. If Ruto wins PORK - he will prefer to crush Kalonzo - than negotiate with him. Big risk
4) Join Azimio - get some fake deal with Raila as always - unlikely to get DPORK this time- and pray that somehow Raila will win. Big risk - Railla very untrustyworthy.

RV, You do sometimes dissapoint , anyway just an aspect of being a Human Being .
In Kenyan constitution there is no leader of opposition . Luckily for Kalonzo Mudavadi and Raila they have been VP before so the continue enjoying the Perksreason they have been comfortable in cold .
Two CSs you say is alot compared to Minority leaders which he will have to share with ODM .In the negotiations with Ruto he can get CS, PS, CASs, Ambasodors , Parastatal heads , Board Members you name it . Yes he can decide to do a handshake after Election while in a coalition with ODM but he will come with  an upper hand when he runs alone .Also it 100% evident based on previous experiences that Raila will try to undercut him once they lose elections . Best is for Kalonzo to become the checkmater of Raila post 2022 elections he stands to gain more , he can even redeem himself and by so doing become Karonjo again and boost him for 2027 elections depending on how the political scenario will play post 2022 .

Opposition leader sio mbaya..it's the same deal Ruto will give him..max two CSs..that equivalent to two minority leaders.Ruto already has muthama n crew..to take care of.Kalonzo best move is ask raila to Stepdown...for him..he can put a big fight in restless Mt Kenya than raila who is unelectable

[Githunguri]

Agreed..Kalonzo 8% makes pork

[Nowayhaha]

RV item 1 , Kalonzo can never get 50%In GEMA with Raila on his side. If he runs alone he might get substantial number of votes as he  would be seen to have backstabbed Raila.

If you could look at my post objectively and not as push and pull between us the you will be able to see clearly how the scenarios might pun out.

He has the Foreign affairs ministry and sports one for taking if he talks to Ruto. But he is overly ambitious and want to be PORK or DPORK. I therefore see a conundrum.

Kalonzo best moves
1) Force Uhuru and Raila to back him - if he can get 50 percent backing of GEMA, solid Luo block, solid Kamba block and half Luhyas he will be very competitive - it will go 50-50 with Ruto.
2) Make pre-election deal with Ruto for 2-3 CS, PS and the works - and save Kenya the need for election.
3) Make post-election deal with Ruto - and get 1CS. If Ruto wins PORK - he will prefer to crush Kalonzo - than negotiate with him. Big risk
4) Join Azimio - get some fake deal with Raila as always - unlikely to get DPORK this time- and pray that somehow Raila will win. Big risk - Railla very untrustyworthy.

RV, You do sometimes dissapoint , anyway just an aspect of being a Human Being .
In Kenyan constitution there is no leader of opposition . Luckily for Kalonzo Mudavadi and Raila they have been VP before so the continue enjoying the Perksreason they have been comfortable in cold .
Two CSs you say is alot compared to Minority leaders which he will have to share with ODM .In the negotiations with Ruto he can get CS, PS, CASs, Ambasodors , Parastatal heads , Board Members you name it . Yes he can decide to do a handshake after Election while in a coalition with ODM but he will come with  an upper hand when he runs alone .Also it 100% evident based on previous experiences that Raila will try to undercut him once they lose elections . Best is for Kalonzo to become the checkmater of Raila post 2022 elections he stands to gain more , he can even redeem himself and by so doing become Karonjo again and boost him for 2027 elections depending on how the political scenario will play post 2022 .

Opposition leader sio mbaya..it's the same deal Ruto will give him..max two CSs..that equivalent to two minority leaders.Ruto already has muthama n crew..to take care of.Kalonzo best move is ask raila to Stepdown...for him..he can put a big fight in restless Mt Kenya than raila who is unelectable

[RV Pundit]

Kwani munachukia Raila syro hiyo?
Yenyewe the maths yake is not balancing.
He definitely need Luos plus half GEMA.

If Uhuru really pushes Raila will get 30 percent - I have given him 35 percent - and with Kambas - he will go to 47 percent losing to Ruto at 53 percent.

At that point Uhuru will try to get Jakom 2nd round but it wont help ANYTHING. There is nothing in second round. Once Kalonzo has joined Azimio - it's kufa ndereva maganga.

Kalonzo you can imagine is under immense pressure.

But for me - Kalonzo best move is to tell Raila to join OKA - and then OKA will present him as the candidate - with Gideon Moi as DPORK

Raila akuwe Chief Campaigner.

RV item 1 , Kalonzo can never get 50%In GEMA with Raila on his side. If he runs alone he might get substantial number of votes as he  would be seen to have backstabbed Raila.

If you could look at my post objectively and not as push and pull between us the you will be able to see clearly how the scenarios might pun out.