Mps especially towards elections are very good indicator of the ground - because they listen to the ground - keenly.
There many indicators one has to watch out for.
Definitely number of MPs, MCas, Governors, name them competing for a party ticket is good indicator.
Ruto is losing Kilifi.
You need to listen to many indicators -
Mps,MCas, defections news, opinion polls, read newspapers, online forums - and of course watch rally attendances - crowd enthusiasm - and talk to people on the ground - to gauge the support - and understand the influence of key players/issues - and you will be able to do MOAS as perfect as I do.
I dont know why people use sitting Mps as a measure of popularity . I showcased here that Majority always go home and actually are a buggage