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[audacityofhope]

• Tweet

I think @Pundit has his numbers completely upside down... (check out his Dec post at the end of this post)

This is Matungu in Luyhaland. For those who don't speak Luhya, ask a luhya friend to translate.
The MP is not faking when he says he is consulting his constituents widely.

https://t.co/eejRyn739q

— Adede Adede (@AdedePaulAdedeh) January 17, 2022

?s=20

.....
We are already seeing Wangamati group defecting to UDA....because they know Weta plus Lusaka will be playing with Ruto.

Gordon Opiyo - insist Ruto has 70 percent of Bungoma.

Ruto therefore very much on course to score 80 percent of Bungoma.

You will get 20 percent for Raila if you work really hard.

:85: :85: :85: :s_laugh: :s_laugh:

[einstein_g]

[Nowayhaha]

Less that 50 people , assemble them and pay each 200 bob .Thats 10 K . Thats how much it cost to make that video. Post it on twitter and watch Raila supporters go Bananas.
Meanwhile majority of them wont vote .

I think @Pundit has his numbers completely upside down... (check out his Dec post at the end of this post)

This is Matungu in Luyhaland. For those who don't speak Luhya, ask a luhya friend to translate.
The MP is not faking when he says he is consulting his constituents widely.

https://t.co/eejRyn739q

— Adede Adede (@AdedePaulAdedeh) January 17, 2022

?s=20

.....
We are already seeing Wangamati group defecting to UDA....because they know Weta plus Lusaka will be playing with Ruto.

Gordon Opiyo - insist Ruto has 70 percent of Bungoma.

Ruto therefore very much on course to score 80 percent of Bungoma.

You will get 20 percent for Raila if you work really hard.

:85: :85: :85: :s_laugh: :s_laugh:

[RV Pundit]

Scripted nonsense. The man must have been paid a million shilling by Atwoli to defect from maDVD and he is now making Kamikaze opinion poll of his supporters.

[RV Pundit]

MOAS figures are very solid - so solid even if you tinker by reducing say Ruto to 10 percent of western - it doesnt affect anything. Remember to move a percentage up or down in MOASS SIO RAHISI.

1 percent in registered votes is 200,000 - that is the average county. That how difficult it is to make up ground .

In terms of expected votes - you're talking close to 170,000 - average county or almost.

Every county on average is worthy 1-2 percent - some like Nairobi are 10 percent - Lamu is a 0.5 percent.

[Njuri Ncheke]

I think @Pundit has his numbers completely upside down... (check out his Dec post at the end of this post)

This is Matungu in Luyhaland. For those who don't speak Luhya, ask a luhya friend to translate.
The MP is not faking when he says he is consulting his constituents widely.

https://t.co/eejRyn739q

— Adede Adede (@AdedePaulAdedeh) January 17, 2022

?s=20

.....
We are already seeing Wangamati group defecting to UDA....because they know Weta plus Lusaka will be playing with Ruto.

Gordon Opiyo - insist Ruto has 70 percent of Bungoma.

Ruto therefore very much on course to score 80 percent of Bungoma.

You will get 20 percent for Raila if you work really hard.

:85: :85: :85: :s_laugh: :s_laugh:

I asked 6 different luhya friends and they couldn't understand a thing what luhya dialect is this?

[einstein_g]

[audacityofhope]

Bro, we already had this discussion. Your question is already answered in one of the threads:

https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=11408.msg103131#msg103131

I meant how many non-Azimio still in ANC *if* Nabulindo jumps ship

[Pajero]

There is nothing objective you can discuss with Pundito now,the guy and by extension kalenjins have sunk their heads in the sand believing their son will be president.You are just wasting time engaging pundito.Let him come back to his senses post August 2022.

[RV Pundit]

First you're mixing Ford-K and ANC. MaDVD influence is  mostly on his Maragolis and related Tirikis. Those are still intact and will remain impact because name maDVD means a lot of those people.

The onto Kakamega. Kakamega is large county - the lower part listen to ODM - oparanya and Raila - plus even Atwoli - those are Luo leaning Luhyas. The middle and northern is split btw UDA and ANC - those are mostly maragoli leaning sub tribes. Battleground is Wangas - where Matungu and Mumias lies.

See MOAS

[RV Pundit]

You want us to delete maDVD and Weta from the map because they have refused to sway to Azimio and are going with Ruto together with Jubilee Mps numbering nearly 20 in Luhyaland

If you want objectivity - dont go further than MOAS - that is why we have got it consistently right

2013 - I told you for free UhuRuto would win 1st round 51 - results 51 percent.

2017 -I told you for free UhuRUto would win 1st round by 53 - they did even better by winning by 54 percent - almost 55 percent.

Now 2022 - Azimio are NOT even at 40 percent - that is despite me generously giving them 30 percent of GEMA. - that will only happen if Uhuru pays more than lipservice to Raila - otherwise it will be more like 80 percent for Ruto.

Right now Ruto is at 48 percent - he need ONLY weta to win by 50 percent whisker.

If he gets maDVD he adds another 4 percent - about 150k votes from Vihiga, 200K votes from Kakamega and 200k votes from Luhya diaspora - that he will add to Ruto basket.

If Kalonzo has insisted on running - AZIMIO can as well disband and go home. It aint going to get to 40 percent even with massive rigging. Again remember to gain 1 percent SIO RAHISI - you need to invent a county and make sure Ruto doesnt hear about it

There is nothing objective you can discuss with Pundito now,the guy and by extension kalenjins have sunk their heads in the sand believing their son will be president.You are just wasting time engaging pundito.Let him come back to his senses post August 2022.

[Pajero]

Ruto 48%,what happened to 65%.

[RV Pundit]

Follow the MOASS thread - politics is dynamic - Ruto is affected by expected low turnout in GEMA (I see 15 percent if not more drop in turnout) and some votes that will be lost to Raila (Raila with strong Uhuru backing could do 30 percent).

I make updates to reflect the reality on the ground. Ruto for example has recently struggled in Kilifi county after governor went back to Raila. Ruto down to 25-30 percent there - Raila is up to 70-75 percent.

Ruto at this stage cannot win in 1st round unless he gets one of 3 OKA principles. He needs 2 percent. That is like 350-400K votes to get past 50 percent mark.

We have voter registrations of 3 weeks - let see if there will be new clues.

I will also be looking keenly into DAP - If they get Wangamati and Natembea oiled and running hard - they could provide stiff competition or alternative leadership to Weta's Ford K - and weta premium may drop from 2 percent to 1 percent. The rest of Luhya is pretty much settled...Busia is pretty much as good as Luo Nyanza for Raila - except few enclaves for Ruto - Lower Kakamega and Lower Vihiga - Raila has huge play.

Ruto 48%,what happened to 65%.

[Pragmatic]

  He will soon drop and max out at 35% ..... and that is being very very generous!

Ruto 48%,what happened to 65%.

[audacityofhope]

I think @Pundit has his numbers completely upside down... (check out his Dec post at the end of this post)

This is Matungu in Luyhaland. For those who don't speak Luhya, ask a luhya friend to translate.
The MP is not faking when he says he is consulting his constituents widely.

https://t.co/eejRyn739q

— Adede Adede (@AdedePaulAdedeh) January 17, 2022

?s=20

.....
We are already seeing Wangamati group defecting to UDA....because they know Weta plus Lusaka will be playing with Ruto.

Gordon Opiyo - insist Ruto has 70 percent of Bungoma.

Ruto therefore very much on course to score 80 percent of Bungoma.

You will get 20 percent for Raila if you work really hard.

:85: :85: :85: :s_laugh: :s_laugh:

I asked 6 different luhya friends and they couldn't understand a thing what luhya dialect is this?

The typical lazy Kenyan. 6 of them you tell us. 6+1 lazy folks!
There is sooooo much SIGN language. Just drop in the usual political names/slogans and you won't need a luhya to translate. Just listen to what your ear can catch....
From 0.00 to 0:05: The MP mentions "Mudavadi" and raises his hand. Nobody in the crowd raises their hand in response (zero votes for Mudavadi) - one only needed to hear that one word and the rest is sign language.

From 0.06 - 0.13: The MP says "UDA ya Ruto Wheelbarrow" and again raises his hand like he is asking pupils in a class to put up their hands to be counted. A few hands go up like 3 or four. (4 votes for Ruto)
one only needed to catch just those 3 words and the rest is sign language. The 3 words are Ruto, UDA and Wheelbarrow

From 0.14 onwards: MP says "Baba for Luhyas" and hands in the crowd go up in unison. - only need to hear one word here - Baba (Majority votes for Raila)

And that is the full translation. You were given a hint already by the narrative posted on the tweet. But a painful part of the video is at the beginning between time 0.00 to 0.05 when no hands go up and some folks in the crowd can be heard to say "abulawo" which means "no supporters" in reference to Mudavadi.

[einstein_g]

First you're mixing Ford-K and ANC. MaDVD influence is  mostly on his Maragolis and related Tirikis. Those are still intact and will remain impact because name maDVD means a lot of those people.

The onto Kakamega. Kakamega is large county - the lower part listen to ODM - oparanya and Raila - plus even Atwoli - those are Luo leaning Luhyas. The middle and northern is split btw UDA and ANC - those are mostly maragoli leaning sub tribes. Battleground is Wangas - where Matungu and Mumias lies.

See MOAS

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I think @Pundit has his numbers completely upside down... (check out his Dec post at the end of this post)

This is Matungu in Luyhaland. For those who don't speak Luhya, ask a luhya friend to translate.
The MP is not faking when he says he is consulting his constituents widely.

https://t.co/eejRyn739q

— Adede Adede (@AdedePaulAdedeh) January 17, 2022

?s=20

.....
We are already seeing Wangamati group defecting to UDA....because they know Weta plus Lusaka will be playing with Ruto.

Gordon Opiyo - insist Ruto has 70 percent of Bungoma.

Ruto therefore very much on course to score 80 percent of Bungoma.

You will get 20 percent for Raila if you work really hard.

:85: :85: :85: :s_laugh: :s_laugh:

The best poll is not hard to decipher. Uhuru Raila, Mdvd, Weta, Gideon, Kalonzo, media houses, bloggers, and the rest are busy strategizing, planning, thinking, agonizing about one and only Dr. William S Ruto. DP is a one man army! Many vs one and its seems 50/50 and that alone tells you alot. If Kalonzo, Weta, and MDVD don't go assimio route, Raila is Kaput! Remember NASA and CORD remained strong not because of Raila, but because of massive Luhya and 94% Kamba votes. Remove those votes and 'babu' has not strength. Watch the space!