Raila Amollo Odinga 5TH President of the Republic of Kenya.

[Githunguri]

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Uhuru-Ruto defeated Raila with 1,300,000 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kenyan_general_election

(a) Majority of this vote was GEMA, However;This time round,they did not register new voters as expected,Most likely turnout wont be high as in 2017 and the remaining GEMA voters will be divided on who to vote between Raila and Ruto.In this scenario,Ruto votes decrease by 30% while Raila votes increase by 15%.

(b) How does Raila win the Kamba,Maragoli,Bukusu and Coastal vote?He will deploy this slogan,That Kikuyu and kalenjin have held the presidency for 60 years and its time for other tribes and that completely locks out Ruto out of these zones. Raila is old and Mudavadi will want to inherit his base which automatically sends him to Raila's side,Otherwise he is politically dead.

Its therefore proper to say that on August,09 2022,Raila Odinga will the the president elect of the Republic of Kenya.

[Nowayhaha]

2007 tactics, A Luo Nyanza pretending to be a Mt Kenyan.
First he says Mt Kenya will vote for Raila then he goes on to say Raila should deploy 40 vs 2.
You people dont get tired it never worked in 2007 nor 2013 and 2017.

Uhuru-Ruto defeated Raila with 1,300,000 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kenyan_general_election

(a) Majority of this vote was GEMA, However;This time round,they did not register new voters as expected,Most likely turnout wont be high as in 2017 and the remaining GEMA voters will be divided on who to vote between Raila and Ruto.In this scenario,Ruto votes decrease by 30% while Raila votes increase by 15%.

(b) How does Raila win the Kamba,Maragoli,Bukusu and Coastal vote?He will deploy this slogan,That Kikuyu and kalenjin have held the presidency for 60 years and its time for other tribes and that completely locks out Ruto out of these zones. Raila is old and Mudavadi will want to inherit his base which automatically sends him to Raila's side,Otherwise he is politically dead.

Its therefore proper to say that on August,09 2022,Raila Odinga will the the president elect of the Republic of Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

Inaitwa wishful thinking... reality is for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region..on his own ..Raila without NASA principal should not waste time.its called the sisphyian course.

[Githunguri]

for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region

Which NASA regions has Ruto gained?

Ruto has lost more GEMA votes (TURNOUT,VOTER APATHY AND UHURU 20% SUPPORT) than he has gained anywhere imaginary in your mind.

Raila without NASA principal

This election is between Ruto and Raila...Of course you expect maragoli and bukusu to rally behind Raila...If Kalonzo runs and forces a runoff...he will support Raila in the run-off

All factors favor Raila this time round

[Nowayhaha]

Plausable is Raila Toshas someone else. As long as he is in the ballot Mt Kenya will wake up 0001 election day to vote against him as they have always done.
Mt Kenya since 2007 have been voting against Raila and not the otger way around.

for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region

Which NASA regions has Ruto gained?

Ruto has lost more GEMA votes (TURNOUT,VOTER APATHY AND UHURU 20% SUPPORT) than he has gained anywhere imaginary in your mind.

Raila without NASA principal

This election is between Ruto and Raila...Of course you expect maragoli and bukusu to rally behind Raila...If Kalonzo runs and forces a runoff...he will support Raila in the run-off

All factors favor Raila this time round

[RV Pundit]

Wishful thinking is to imagine madvd is worth zero..at his worst he got 4 percent..this time round he will get more.The same for Weta and kalonzo.Those two, four and 8 percent are critical for Raila..Ruto flip one it over.As for gema..low turnout and lost votes will be offset by Ruto gains from turkana to kwale..Raila is not going to make 35 percent without oka.His candidature dies without oka.Gema support is only relevant if he can retain NASA support.The rest are wishful thinking

[RV Pundit]

Even if you gave Raila 50 percent of gema..with expected low turnout..that is 12 or 13 percent.. without OkA he will max out at 45 percent like he has done the last three elections.Raila first business should and ought to be..retain NASA 45 percent then look for top up from gema.

[Githunguri]

Even if you gave Raila 50 percent of gema..with expected low turnout..that is 12 or 13 percent.. without OkA he will max out at 45 percent like he has done the last three elections.Raila first business should and ought to be..retain NASA 45 percent then look for top up from gema.

Its very simple..look at 2013..nothing has changed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Kenyan_general_election

Uhuruto 50.51%   Railonzo43.7%      Madvd 4%

If we assume that Uhuru's support in the 50.51% was 10%,we downshift Ruto to 40%...if we factor in voter apathy, he is at 35%,

Raila was at 44%...if we remove Kalonzo 8%..that means he is at 36%..if we add him Uhuru 10%..He is at 46%.....If Madvd supports Rutp,That will be political suicide in the whole of western kenya,that means he will end up supporting Raila with his 4% which gives Raila a 50.51% presidential win.

It will be Raila 50% Ruto 46%

I can bet USD 10000

[Githunguri]

Plausable is Raila Toshas someone else. As long as he is in the ballot Mt Kenya will wake up 0001 election day to vote against him as they have always done.
Mt Kenya since 2007 have been voting against Raila and not the otger way around.

for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region

Which NASA regions has Ruto gained?

Ruto has lost more GEMA votes (TURNOUT,VOTER APATHY AND UHURU 20% SUPPORT) than he has gained anywhere imaginary in your mind.

Raila without NASA principal

This election is between Ruto and Raila...Of course you expect maragoli and bukusu to rally behind Raila...If Kalonzo runs and forces a runoff...he will support Raila in the run-off

All factors favor Raila this time round

RUBBISH

[audacityofhope]

Plausable is Raila Toshas someone else. As long as he is in the ballot Mt Kenya will wake up 0001 election day to vote against him as they have always done.
Mt Kenya since 2007 have been voting against Raila and not the otger way around.

for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region

Which NASA regions has Ruto gained?

Ruto has lost more GEMA votes (TURNOUT,VOTER APATHY AND UHURU 20% SUPPORT) than he has gained anywhere imaginary in your mind.

Raila without NASA principal

This election is between Ruto and Raila...Of course you expect maragoli and bukusu to rally behind Raila...If Kalonzo runs and forces a runoff...he will support Raila in the run-off

All factors favor Raila this time round

RUBBISH

At least you are able to respond to him, even if it is with one word. I don't.

[RV Pundit]

Even if you gave Raila 50 percent of gema..with expected low turnout..that is 12 or 13 percent.. without OkA he will max out at 45 percent like he has done the last three elections.Raila first business should and ought to be..retain NASA 45 percent then look for top up from gema.

Its very simple..look at 2013..nothing has changed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Kenyan_general_election

Uhuruto 50.51%   Railonzo43.7%      Madvd 4%

If we assume that Uhuru's support in the 50.51% was 10%,we downshift Ruto to 40%...if we factor in voter apathy, he is at 35%,

Raila was at 44%...if we remove Kalonzo 8%..that means he is at 36%..if we add him Uhuru 10%..He is at 46%.....If Madvd supports Rutp,That will be political suicide in the whole of western kenya,that means he will end up supporting Raila with his 4% which gives Raila a 50.51% presidential win.

It will be Raila 50% Ruto 46%

I can bet USD 10000

Tafuta excel and your assumption disappear...refer to moas thread for such analysis

[Nowayhaha]

Same person......

Plausable is Raila Toshas someone else. As long as he is in the ballot Mt Kenya will wake up 0001 election day to vote against him as they have always done.
Mt Kenya since 2007 have been voting against Raila and not the otger way around.

for every lost mt Kenya Ruto had gained in NASA region

Which NASA regions has Ruto gained?

Ruto has lost more GEMA votes (TURNOUT,VOTER APATHY AND UHURU 20% SUPPORT) than he has gained anywhere imaginary in your mind.

Raila without NASA principal

This election is between Ruto and Raila...Of course you expect maragoli and bukusu to rally behind Raila...If Kalonzo runs and forces a runoff...he will support Raila in the run-off

All factors favor Raila this time round

RUBBISH

At least you are able to respond to him, even if it is with one word. I don't.