Wakamba leaders special breed - fighting on who can kiss arse more

[RV Pundit]

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Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

[Pajero]

Why are you bitter with kambas,Muthama cannot win machakos governor,how is he supposed to deliver kambas to Ruto,the guy is spent force,by the way,did he got his wife Kavindu back.

[RV Pundit]

Poor Kaloi will once again go to Raila and this time he wont be even a running mate.
If that is bitterness - then I am totally confused - it more pity.
In any case Muthama and crew will gurantee Ruto at least 25 percent of Ukambani.
With Raila fatigue - Ruto could even do 30 percent.
That is all Ruto need from Ukambani.

Ruto offered poor Kaloi - 1/3 in 2013 - he refused - in 2017 - refused - and now in 2022 he has refused.
MaDVD has taken the offer - so Ruto has nothing to offer Kalonzo.
Unless he is coming for Raila's type of handshake - fake AU job and a few prados.

He better take Raila 1/3 offer - that is his best foot forward - for his 8 percent.
If he was strong - he would have demanded at least 5B kshs downpayment - but he is weaken - with Ruto having his play through Muthama-former Jubilee folks and Raila playing the 3 governors.

Imagine going back to Ukambani to sell Raila without even being the running mate this time round - Ruto could even score 40 percent of Ukambani as they protest Kaloi poor calculations.

Why are you bitter with kambas,Muthama cannot win machakos governor,how is he supposed to deliver kambas to Ruto,the guy is spent force,by the way,did he got his wife Kavindu back.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Poor Kaloi will once again go to Raila and this time he wont be even a running mate.
If that is bitterness - then I am totally confused - it more pity.
In any case Muthama and crew will gurantee Ruto at least 25 percent of Ukambani.
With Raila fatigue - Ruto could even do 30 percent.
That is all Ruto need from Ukambani.

Ruto offered poor Kaloi - 1/3 in 2013 - he refused - in 2017 - refused - and now in 2022 he has refused.
MaDVD has taken the offer - so Ruto has nothing to offer Kalonzo.
Unless he is coming for Raila's type of handshake - fake AU job and a few prados.

He better take Raila 1/3 offer - that is his best foot forward - for his 8 percent.
If he was strong - he would have demanded at least 5B kshs downpayment - but he is weaken - with Ruto having his play through Muthama-former Jubilee folks and Raila playing the 3 governors.

Imagine going back to Ukambani to sell Raila without even being the running mate this time round - Ruto could even score 40 percent of Ukambani as they protest Kaloi poor calculations.

Why are you bitter with kambas,Muthama cannot win machakos governor,how is he supposed to deliver kambas to Ruto,the guy is spent force,by the way,did he got his wife Kavindu back.

You understand Kenya politics like no one. Agree, poor Kaloi is in a tough spot. I hope his wife recover quickly because it affects him dearly politically. I think he won't go for Baba after saying, "If I back Raila again, I will be the biggest fool in the world, and no one should take me seriously ever again." To break even and get a bow with minimal shame, he may throw his weight behind Mudavadi/Oka if he has to make such a decision. I don't see him endorsing Baba after 20 years of abuse and after Kambas warning to never blindly follow Baba. Of all the communities in Kenya, I think Kambas will be a toss-up this election. Courtesy of the three governors, I believe Bubu is guaranteed 30%, but 70% will be shared all over. If Kaloi stick with OKA and Mudavadi stays through, I think Kaloi will transfer 60%. DP is guaranteed 15%, but he may score all the way to 40 depending on changes in the next few months. If Kaloi, unfortunately, backs Bubu without a second slot, there will be a bloodbath. I don't think Raila will get 95% as he got in the CORD and NASA era. He may max at 65% even with three governors and Kaloi. Ruto needs only that 20-30% opening run-up in his numbers.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent. 

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

OR, they understand only one person can win and know their man has no chance.  They are choosing their steelman, who happens not to be the hasola. 

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent. 

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

OR, they understand only one person can win and know their man has no chance.  They are choosing their steelman, who happens not to be the hasola. 

what difference if you will flower girl unless like Raila you are satisfied with fake AU job...the are people who understands real power

[RV Pundit]

Poor Kaloi will once again go to Raila and this time he wont be even a running mate.
If that is bitterness - then I am totally confused - it more pity.
In any case Muthama and crew will gurantee Ruto at least 25 percent of Ukambani.
With Raila fatigue - Ruto could even do 30 percent.
That is all Ruto need from Ukambani.

Ruto offered poor Kaloi - 1/3 in 2013 - he refused - in 2017 - refused - and now in 2022 he has refused.
MaDVD has taken the offer - so Ruto has nothing to offer Kalonzo.
Unless he is coming for Raila's type of handshake - fake AU job and a few prados.

He better take Raila 1/3 offer - that is his best foot forward - for his 8 percent.
If he was strong - he would have demanded at least 5B kshs downpayment - but he is weaken - with Ruto having his play through Muthama-former Jubilee folks and Raila playing the 3 governors.

Imagine going back to Ukambani to sell Raila without even being the running mate this time round - Ruto could even score 40 percent of Ukambani as they protest Kaloi poor calculations.

Why are you bitter with kambas,Muthama cannot win machakos governor,how is he supposed to deliver kambas to Ruto,the guy is spent force,by the way,did he got his wife Kavindu back.

You understand Kenya politics like no one. Agree, poor Kaloi is in a tough spot. I hope his wife recover quickly because it affects him dearly politically. I think he won't go for Baba after saying, "If I back Raila again, I will be the biggest fool in the world, and no one should take me seriously ever again." To break even and get a bow with minimal shame, he may throw his weight behind Mudavadi/Oka if he has to make such a decision. I don't see him endorsing Baba after 20 years of abuse and after Kambas warning to never blindly follow Baba. Of all the communities in Kenya, I think Kambas will be a toss-up this election. Courtesy of the three governors, I believe Bubu is guaranteed 30%, but 70% will be shared all over. If Kaloi stick with OKA and Mudavadi stays through, I think Kaloi will transfer 60%. DP is guaranteed 15%, but he may score all the way to 40 depending on changes in the next few months. If Kaloi, unfortunately, backs Bubu without a second slot, there will be a bloodbath. I don't think Raila will get 95% as he got in the CORD and NASA era. He may max at 65% even with three governors and Kaloi. Ruto needs only that 20-30% opening run-up in his numbers.

I did moass of 2010...kambas surprised me as they backed nos nearly 50 percent..this election look likely they will protest and vote hustler at 40 percent.. opinion polls..that credible are showing Ruto is popular..next is undecided voters.I know Kenya politics deeply..I use to struggle in few places but now I have it all figured..Ruto should focus on ukambani but stay away from attacking kalonzo or ngilu..just use 2010 template

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent. 

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

OR, they understand only one person can win and know their man has no chance.  They are choosing their steelman, who happens not to be the hasola. 

what difference if you will flower girl unless like Raila you are satisfied with fake AU job...the are people who understands real power

You can understand power and still be pragmatic.  Who among them do you think stands a chance?  What's the point of running when the outcome is not in doubt, then you spend the next few years wandering the wilderness  ?

[RV Pundit]

This 2010..kambas surprised everyone by voting no by nearly half.Its looking like another.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Kenyan_constitutional_referendum

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent. 

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

OR, they understand only one person can win and know their man has no chance.  They are choosing their steelman, who happens not to be the hasola. 

what difference if you will flower girl unless like Raila you are satisfied with fake AU job...the are people who understands real power

You can understand power and still be pragmatic.  Who among them do you think stands a chance?  What's the point of running when the outcome is not in doubt, then you spend the next few years wandering the wilderness  ?

Trust me if outcome was not doubt many gema and kalenjin political class would endorse Raila..those are the people who knows real power.If Raila win was inevitable Ruto would back jakom before anybody..he did it in 2007.There is reason why luhyas,Luos and kambas have not and don't look like ruling..hesabu mbaya and lack of steel balls to make things.. sitting there for things to happen.. people make it happen..uhuruto as icc indicted people made it..Ruto is out there making it happen.This vicious cycle as lack power mean no real money.. billions to mount campaign... small break like muthama or sonko are exception but majority will line up for handouts..with kalonzo leading as he as never seen a billion ksh cash

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kalonzo and his group - cannot fathom going against deep state.
Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha group - also fighting for who is ready to make deal with Raila.
And they think they ready for prime time -
Seem Muthama is only man of steel - and made them go opposition twice.
Now with Muthama in UDA - they are radarless and will join Azimio without getting anything - not even a pre-payment.

Leadership is NOT GIVEN. It's taken. By men of steel.

Now fighting on who can give Raila the best Muthokoi
This will improve Raila fortunes from 38 percent to 46 percent...as Ruto carries the day with 54 percent. 

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-01-12-the-news-brief-kalonzo-team-pushes-for-poll-deal-with-raila/

OR, they understand only one person can win and know their man has no chance.  They are choosing their steelman, who happens not to be the hasola. 

what difference if you will flower girl unless like Raila you are satisfied with fake AU job...the are people who understands real power

You can understand power and still be pragmatic.  Who among them do you think stands a chance?  What's the point of running when the outcome is not in doubt, then you spend the next few years wandering the wilderness  ?

Trust me if outcome was not doubt many gema and kalenjin political class would endorse Raila..those are the people who knows real power.If Raila win was inevitable Ruto would back jakom before anybody..he did it in 2007.There is reason why luhyas,Luos and kambas have not and don't look like ruling..hesabu mbaya and lack of steel balls to make things.. sitting there for things to happen.. people make it happen..uhuruto as icc indicted people made it..Ruto is out there making it happen.This vicious cycle as lack power mean no real money.. billions to mount campaign... small break like muthama or sonko are exception but majority will line up for handouts..with kalonzo leading as he as never seen a billion ksh cash

I wasn't clear.  I meant the outcome of how they(the kamba nominee) would do is not in doubt.  This has nothing to do with inherent(or otherwise) tribal knowledge of power , but more to do with the fact Kalonzo, Ngilu, *put any other Kamba name* understand they do not have a chance to win it all and are now hedging with the next best thing.

[RV Pundit]

In first place how do you let yourself be found nabbing and having to scavenge every elections.Lack of long term planning like jaluos or total lack of planning like kambas.Now they find themselves where the best deal is to back Raila but how do you present to people.Shida.Like Mt kenya elite facing rebellion.Kambas even if they back jakom without NASA intact will cry tears come august

[RV Pundit]

And all the azimios are dependant on one uhuru Kenyatta..who can go mia..like kibaki did..utalia sana

[patel]

If kalonzo and by extend Kambas join Ruto it's game over. 1 million extra votes will provide sufficient margin.

[RV Pundit]

It's already game over if madvd joins with his 4 percent and weta with his two percent have agreed.Kalonzo unlikely to join..his best move is to run solo and try to secure the future..if he back Raila not only will he lose..he will have big problem selling worse deal ever to a fatigued kamba national..revolt likely.He is desperate for at least a running mate but both camps are keen on Mt kenya

[Nowayhaha]

2017 Suprisingly Uhuru did well in Kitui and Machakos gathering 18 % of the votes . In Makueni he gathered 8%.
This is bearing in mind Kalonzo was a DP candidate and also the feeling of betrayal that Kambas had after Kibaki and ICC where Kalonzo stood up for GEMA and Uhuru and in return Kambas thought Kalonzo will  handed over the baton.
Kambas have some form of competition with their cousins GEMA going back to pre independence era. Thats why apart from 2002 when there were 2 GEMA candidates they have always been voting the opposite direction.
Now without a GEMA candidate and with Raila fatigue expect Ruto to get 30 % of the vote. Ruto needs to energize the AIC networks and a substantial number of voters will heed call of the church. Moi used that and Ruto used that in 2010. He will reap big.

[RV Pundit]

Yes it strange that Kambas and GEMA never see eye to eye - it almost comical difference - because they are essentially one people to me.
If GEMA and Kambas had found a working arrangement they would have ruled kenya almost forever.
For some reason deep GEMA despise Kambas - and Kambas resents GEMA
I guess it way Kalenjin-Luo relate - Kalenjin have no issues with other nilotes or even bantus - but despise Luos for refusing to cut.

Anyway now real politik of 2022
Three scenarios - with two plausible one for Kalonzo
He backs Raila but this time even get worst deal - despite being promised he will become candidate twice if raila win or lose - now gets at best 1/3 of the pie.
He runs alone and try to pull 2007 - upping his stake - for post-election deal.
He backs Ruto for a quarter of the pie.

Worse scenario for Ruto is Kalonzo running alone - he will get at least 70 or even 80 percent of kamba vote - the remainder 20-30 percent will be shared btw Ruto and Raila.

Raila will get suck in 30s (38 percent) - Ruto will lose 1 percent from 54-55 percent.

Best case scenario for both Raila and Ruto - is for Kalonzo to back either one of them.
If he backs Raila - Ruto will improve in Ukambani to even 30 or even possible revolt of 40 percent.
Kamba people like Luhya are fatigued by voting Raila and losing...even Luos are tired.

Raila need kalonzo to get to 45 percent - he has to do everything to win him over.

If I was Kalonzo I would demand some serious money like 10B kshs....from Azimio brigade.

If not - run solo - and preserve kamba constituency for future use.

Biggest caveat in all this scenario is Uhuru staying the Azimio and seriously working on Raila campaign - otherwise Ruto will be looking at 60 percent plus.

2017 Suprisingly Uhuru did well in Kitui and Machakos gathering 18 % of the votes . In Makueni he gathered 8%.
This is bearing in mind Kalonzo was a DP candidate and also the feeling of betrayal that Kambas had after Kibaki and ICC where Kalonzo stood up for GEMA and Uhuru and in return Kambas thought Kalonzo will  handed over the baton.
Kambas have some form of competition with their cousins GEMA going back to pre independence era. Thats why apart from 2002 when there were 2 GEMA candidates they have always been voting the opposite direction.
Now without a GEMA candidate and with Raila fatigue expect Ruto to get 30 % of the vote. Ruto needs to energize the AIC networks and a substantial number of voters will heed call of the church. Moi used that and Ruto used that in 2010. He will reap big.

[gout]

Many even sizable middle class GEMA has this delusion that ufool will pull a magical card. This while all the cards have consistently been jokers. 

[RV Pundit]

If politician near him are fleeing; those midro class are just cows who dont understand politics and how it function; the revolution in mt kenya is complete; we are waiting for it's children.

Looking at handshake meet yesterday - you can almost count the remaining GEMA Mps with one hand. Wambugu, Kega, Kioni and Kimunya are few prominent ones. Then I saw Nyeri senate Ephraim. The rest have taken to the hills.

Many even sizable middle class GEMA has this delusion that ufool will pull a magical card. This while all the cards have consistently been jokers.