Stop dreaming. I have been doing MOASS since 2005 and I get the pretty close - almost clinical.
If MaDVD and Weta run combined as OKA or Western front - they will take majority of the vote - maDVD will improve his 4 percent by adding Weta to 6-7 percent. They will be doing 50 percent - with Raila and Ruto forces to share 50 percent of combined Luhya votes..as they will appeal to Luhya nationalism (however feeble).
If they back Ruto (like its very likely) - they will lose a few votes outside their enclaves of Bukusu and Maragoli - but will still deliver 5 percent to Ruto. Ruto has his own game in Luhyaland that gives him at least 30 percent of the votes...slightly more than Uhuru - who did on average 25 percent.
Wangamati folks - deputy and ministers have joined UDA - and are preparing the way - because they know Lusaka will join Ford-K and merge with Weta - UDA has some play that Wangamati want to play. DAP is dead on arrival...it appears. Of course ODM died long time ago...it doesnt exist in Bungoma.
Ruto will win almost 100 percent of kalenjin. You dont understand kalenjin. There is nothing like North and South Rift. William Ruto will win 99 percent of Kispisig (South Rift) because he is a Kipsigis. Both Isaac and William are kipsigis whose parent immigrated to Nandi - Isaac to Cheptiret - and William to Sugoi - Isaac later returned back and bought their land back. William half-brother I believe cameback and lives in Kericho..the one photographed wearing gumboots. William step mother ..1st wife of his father I believe lived in Kapsoit..both are kipsigis...William mother is a Nandi (making WSR half kipsigis-half nandi)..and there is also a 3rd wife..his father had 3 wives I think. The original home is Kiptere then they moved to Kapsoit kenugut then moved to Nandi then Tranzoia then finally uasin gishu...but they never sold their land in Kenugut..where Ruto half brother and cousins live.
Isaac Ruto is backing WSR but afraid to join UDA - he is only dude in CCM - he doesnt even have MCA or MP candidates - and come election he will lose.
Kalenjiin will finish election from governor to mca in UDA nomination. It will be 100 percent UDA. Even Pokots will vote Ruto. Kalenjin even in Tanzania and Uganda are routing for Ruto
- you just dont understand Kalenjin unity of purpose.
Now you just said Raila will only get 30% in Kakamega. Isn't this statement of Oparanya influence not contradictory to your 30% statement?
Those of you who THINK they know Bungoma better are really really annoying to those of who hail from there. Wangamati is my cousin. He will grace the opening of my new Business in the heart of Bungoma town scheduled for Next Month around about Valentine's day. He is not UDA.
Free advice to you Pundit, prepare to shed premium tears. By August 2022, Luto will only have North Rift. You saw South Rift begin to dither last two days. Time for Isacc Rutto's revenge is nigh. Your God went making enemies in the last 10 years never knowing in 2022 he would need them as political friends.