The rate at which ANC is being cannibalized, Does Ruto need Mudavadi at all?

[audacityofhope]

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But first, best wishes from the South.....

https://t.co/UiXveukFmV

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD will sweep his maragoli land (70 percent of vihiga) - and about 1/3 of Kakamega - it's about 4 percent of the vote. Those defecting are not his core support base...
Weta will take about 40 percent of Bungoma and 30 percent of Tranzoia..about 2 percent
Ruto on his own will get votes in Luhya land - more than Uhuru did - about 25-30 percent on his own.
Raila on his own will get about 70 percent of Busia, 30 percent of Kakamega, 20 percent of Vihiga and at best 30 percent of Bungoma; 20 percent of Tranzoia.
MaDVD and Weta have very few votes - but very crucial votes - because Ruto need 50 plus One (they are the ONE) and also need rigging margins (about 5 percent)...both maDVD+Weta provide crucial 6 percent.
Therefore maDVD and Weta are going to harvest lots of money from Ruto.
For 2 percent - Weta is making 800M kshs - and for his 4 percent - maDVD is cashing out 4 percent

That is how politics is played..

[audacityofhope]

Wewe @Pundit, wait for facts from the ground b4 responding, I am not done typing yet!

[audacityofhope]

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But first, best wishes from the South.....

https://t.co/UiXveukFmV

[RV Pundit]

Huyu ajapata 2.5B kshs ya Ruto - he is operating on petty cash from Atwoli. He needs maDVD more than maDVD needs him. All these defections are just Atwoli petty cash but real deal is that maDVD key drivers - Malala and Sakaja - are now negotiating with Ruto - savula and his pro-Raila brigaded are not ANC.

[quote a

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[audacityofhope]

@Pundit, you claim to know western so well, that I believe you do not need a translation on what this ANC MP is saying. But in case you do, ask @Pragmatic to do the honors!

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[RV Pundit]

Western is diverse; it 17 sub tribes with diverse interests; Khiwesero is Atwoli homeground; I expect people of Khiwesero to Butere (Oparanya strongholds) - Banyoros, Maramas and Busia - to vote heavily for Jakom - the Luo influence there is heavy.

You can literally draw the lines where Raila will get votes - start Majengo town - go to Emuhaya - to Khiwsero to Butere via sabatia(small one - not vihiga) - pass all the way to Nambale...and then head southern wards to Busia town... that is ODM stronghold.

@Pundit, you claim to know western so well, that I believe you do not need a translation on what this ANC MP is saying. But in case you do, ask @Pragmatic to do the honors!

[audacityofhope]

There is no way you can use corruption to fight corruption. - Mukhisa Kituyi pic.twitter.com/L8ULOjk25M

— Kenyans.co.ke (@Kenyans) January 11, 2022

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[RV Pundit]

Zero impact in Bungoma. Bungoma is playground of UDA and Ford-K. ODM and DAP will not even fly. I still expect Wangamati to defect to UDA if not run as independent. He has refused to Join DAP and has refused to join AZIMIO activities.

Wangamati is waiting for Lusaka to come to the ground - as ford-kenya candidate

Ruto if he wins Weta like he has - likely to carry Bungoma by 70 if not 80 percent.

There is no way you can use corruption to fight corruption. - Mukhisa Kituyi pic.twitter.com/L8ULOjk25M

— Kenyans.co.ke (@Kenyans) January 11, 2022

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[audacityofhope]

Now you just said Raila will only get 30% in Kakamega. Isn't this statement of Oparanya influence not contradictory to your 30% statement?

Those of you who THINK they know Bungoma better are really really annoying to those of who hail from there. Wangamati is my cousin. He will grace the opening of my new Business in the heart of Bungoma town scheduled for Next Month around about Valentine's day. He is not UDA.

Weta is buried 2022. He has been around so long and with no prospects of being president, he won't even see Senator. He is finally being dumped by voters.

Free advice to you Pundit, prepare to shed premium tears. By August 2022, Luto will only have North Rift. You saw South Rift begin to dither last two days. Time for Isacc Rutto's revenge is nigh. Your God went making enemies in the last 10 years never knowing in 2022 he would need them as political friends.

Western is diverse; it 17 sub tribes with diverse interests; Khiwesero is Atwoli homeground; I expect people of Khiwesero to Butere (Oparanya strongholds) - Banyoros, Maramas and Busia - to vote heavily for Jakom - the Luo influence there is heavy.

@Pundit, you claim to know western so well, that I believe you do not need a translation on what this ANC MP is saying. But in case you do, ask @Pragmatic to do the honors!

[RV Pundit]

Stop dreaming. I have been doing MOASS since 2005 and I get the pretty close - almost clinical.

If MaDVD and Weta run combined as OKA or Western front - they will take majority of the vote - maDVD will improve his 4 percent by adding Weta to 6-7 percent.  They will  be doing 50 percent - with Raila and Ruto forces to share 50 percent of combined Luhya votes..as they will appeal to Luhya nationalism (however feeble).

If they back Ruto (like its very likely) - they will lose a few votes outside their enclaves of Bukusu and Maragoli - but will still deliver 5 percent to Ruto. Ruto has his own game in Luhyaland that gives him at least 30 percent of the votes...slightly more than Uhuru - who did on average 25 percent.

Wangamati folks - deputy and ministers have joined UDA - and are preparing the way - because they know Lusaka will join Ford-K and merge with Weta - UDA has some play that Wangamati want to play. DAP is dead on arrival...it appears. Of course ODM died long time ago...it doesnt exist in Bungoma.

Ruto will win almost 100 percent of kalenjin. You dont understand kalenjin. There is nothing like North and South Rift. William Ruto will win 99 percent of Kispisig (South Rift) because he is a Kipsigis. Both Isaac and William are kipsigis whose parent immigrated to Nandi - Isaac to Cheptiret - and William to Sugoi - Isaac later returned back and bought their land back. William half-brother I believe cameback and lives in Kericho..the one photographed wearing gumboots. William step mother ..1st wife of his father I believe lived in Kapsoit..both are kipsigis...William mother is a Nandi (making WSR half kipsigis-half nandi)..and there is also a 3rd wife..his father had 3 wives I think. The original home is Kiptere then they moved to Kapsoit kenugut then moved to Nandi then Tranzoia then finally uasin gishu...but they never sold their land in Kenugut..where Ruto half brother and cousins live.

Isaac Ruto is backing WSR but afraid to join UDA - he is only dude in CCM - he doesnt even have MCA or MP candidates - and come election he will lose.

Kalenjiin will finish election from governor to mca in UDA nomination. It will be 100 percent UDA. Even Pokots will vote Ruto. Kalenjin even in Tanzania and Uganda are routing for Ruto - you just dont understand Kalenjin unity of purpose.

Now you just said Raila will only get 30% in Kakamega. Isn't this statement of Oparanya influence not contradictory to your 30% statement?

Those of you who THINK they know Bungoma better are really really annoying to those of who hail from there. Wangamati is my cousin. He will grace the opening of my new Business in the heart of Bungoma town scheduled for Next Month around about Valentine's day. He is not UDA.

Free advice to you Pundit, prepare to shed premium tears. By August 2022, Luto will only have North Rift. You saw South Rift begin to dither last two days. Time for Isacc Rutto's revenge is nigh. Your God went making enemies in the last 10 years never knowing in 2022 he would need them as political friends.

[RV Pundit]

Isaac biggest miscalculation was thinking he could seperate Nandi from Kipsigis. It insanity 101. Nandi and Kispsigis are almost one sub-tribe. They seperated into different sub tribes in 17th century - and have not a single history of enemity - despite rivarly - they will never go to war or steal cattle from each other ever - in fact a Nandi would move to Kispisigis anyday and a Nandi the same. Nearly every Nandi clan has kipsigis clan. There is of course gusii admixture in Kipisigs and teriki (luhya) admixture in Nandi that came recently. The other Kalenjin subtribes there is some distance..pokot and kipsigis are distant enough to be almost different tribes.

[Nowayhaha]

Why do some people always think that they are the only ones associated with Politicians. In 2013 2 sons of different Mps then Clearly told me Bukusus supported GEMA twice in 2002 and 2007 and in 2013 they would not support another GEMA candidate it came to pass. Right now they are telling me there is Raila fatigue and they will support Ruto.
We had a discussion previously with RV and my opinion was that Bukusus have beef with Kalenjins and most likely that wont vote for Ruto. My mind changed after I was told of Raila Fatigue.

Now you just said Raila will only get 30% in Kakamega. Isn't this statement of Oparanya influence not contradictory to your 30% statement?

Those of you who THINK they know Bungoma better are really really annoying to those of who hail from there. Wangamati is my cousin. He will grace the opening of my new Business in the heart of Bungoma town scheduled for Next Month around about Valentine's day. He is not UDA.

Weta is buried 2022. He has been around so long and with no prospects of being president, he won't even see Senator. He is finally being dumped by voters.

Free advice to you Pundit, prepare to shed premium tears. By August 2022, Luto will only have North Rift. You saw South Rift begin to dither last two days. Time for Isacc Rutto's revenge is nigh. Your God went making enemies in the last 10 years never knowing in 2022 he would need them as political friends.

Western is diverse; it 17 sub tribes with diverse interests; Khiwesero is Atwoli homeground; I expect people of Khiwesero to Butere (Oparanya strongholds) - Banyoros, Maramas and Busia - to vote heavily for Jakom - the Luo influence there is heavy.

@Pundit, you claim to know western so well, that I believe you do not need a translation on what this ANC MP is saying. But in case you do, ask @Pragmatic to do the honors!

[Pragmatic]

MaDVD will sweep his maragoli land (70 percent of vihiga) - and about 1/3 of Kakamega - it's about 4 percent of the vote. Those defecting are not his core support base...
Weta will take about 40 percent of Bungoma and 30 percent of Tranzoia..about 2 percent
Ruto on his own will get votes in Luhya land - more than Uhuru did - about 25-30 percent on his own.
Raila on his own will get about 70 percent of Busia, 30 percent of Kakamega, 20 percent of Vihiga and at best 30 percent of Bungoma; 20 percent of Tranzoia.
MaDVD and Weta have very few votes - but very crucial votes - because Ruto need 50 plus One (they are the ONE) and also need rigging margins (about 5 percent)...both maDVD+Weta provide crucial 6 percent.
Therefore maDVD and Weta are going to harvest lots of money from Ruto.
For 2 percent - Weta is making 800M kshs - and for his 4 percent - maDVD is cashing out 4 percent

That is how politics is played..

[RV Pundit]

Bukusu know Raila and Luos from 1996 Ford-Kenya battles. They distrust Raila. That is why Jubilee has been harvesting Mps and 30 percent of the votes despite Weta's Ford-Kenya supporting NASA and CORD.

In 2007 when all luhyas moved to ODM - Bukusu refused.

This time round ODM is even seeing more dust and are trying to get some traction with Wamalwa-Simiyu DAP.

A merger of UDA and Ford-Kenya will lock ODM out - having mistreated Weta - he has reminded majority of Bukusu what Raila did to Kijana Wamalwa in 1996.

Why do some people always think that they are the only ones associated with Politicians. In 2013 2 sons of different Mps then Clearly told me Bukusus supported GEMA twice in 2002 and 2007 and in 2013 they would not support another GEMA candidate it came to pass. Right now they are telling me there is Raila fatigue and they will support Ruto.
We had a discussion previously with RV and my opinion was that Bukusus have beef with Kalenjins and most likely that wont vote for Ruto. My mind changed after I was told of Raila Fatigue.

[RV Pundit]

ODM has never been alive in Bukusuland. Dont confuse your own support Jakom with Sifuna for Bukusu support. Most Bukusu still remember with vivid memories all Ford-Kenya debacle. Raila has made it worse by kicking Weta out of Minority Leadership.

Those stories about leadership coming from Luo land was tried in 1995 post Jaramogi demise and failed. NO sooner had Kijana Wamalwa assumed Ford-Kenya leadership - than Luos and Raila quit Ford-Kenya and formed NDP.

Ruto already has huge play in Bukusuland - and a combined force with Ford-Kenya - is assured of almost 80 if not more of the votes - if they remind Bukusu Raila betrayal of Kijana Wamalwa and recently Moses Wetangula.

If there are people who knows and distrust Raila - dont look further than Bungoma. That is why Wangamati has gone mute - and has ceased all Azimio la Ukora activities - his allies already in UDA.

Ruto delivered speaker for Lusaka - and has been nice to Bungoma leaders and visited it many times - that has soften the ground - and now with Wetangula on the way to Ruto it's game over.

[Pragmatic]

ODM has never been alive in Bukusuland. Dont confuse your own support Jakom with Sifuna for Bukusu support. Most Bukusu still remember with vivid memories all Ford-Kenya debacle. Raila has made it worse by kicking Weta out of Minority Leadership.

Those stories about leadership coming from Luo land was tried in 1995 post Jaramogi demise and failed. NO sooner had Kijana Wamalwa assumed Ford-Kenya leadership - than Luos and Raila quit Ford-Kenya and formed NDP.

Ruto already has huge play in Bukusuland - and a combined force with Ford-Kenya - is assured of almost 80 if not more of the votes - if they remind Bukusu Raila betrayal of Kijana Wamalwa and recently Moses Wetangula.

If there are people who knows and distrust Raila - dont look further than Bungoma. That is why Wangamati has gone mute - and has ceased all Azimio la Ukora activities - his allies already in UDA.

Ruto delivered speaker for Lusaka - and has been nice to Bungoma leaders and visited it many times - that has soften the ground - and now with Wetangula on the way to Ruto it's game over.

[RV Pundit]

Eti siblings..my friends I stayed in bungoma..I see you primitives circumcised Luos by force..Weta has no competition although he will win n resign to become national speaker

[Pragmatic]

Ooh dear...... wonder why we call each other shemeji?? It is not only because of football. Siwezi kukusaidia Ndugu yangu.

Eti siblings..my friends I stayed in bungoma..I see you primitives circumcised Luos by force..Weta has no competition although he will win n resign to become national speaker

[audacityofhope]

@Pragmatic, here is a fellow who claims he lived in Bungoma yet he never heard what you just said. Nathan Munoko, still alive , Njonjo's agemate at 101 and Former Minister on Jomo's cabinet and who is a neighbor at one of his many wives homes has sired 68 children and of these 42 have married from or are married in Nyanza.
It is through exposing such ignorance, that I AoH has never had time for his takataka 🚮 , tangatanga MOASS.

Ooh dear...... wonder why we call each other shemeji?? It is not only because of football. Siwezi kukusaidia Ndugu yangu.

Eti siblings..my friends I stayed in bungoma..I see you primitives circumcised Luos by force..Weta has no competition although he will win n resign to become national speaker