The sucession remain byzantine. I very much doubt Uhuru will ever trust Raila. He knows once Raila is in - he will discard any MOU out of the window.Secondly I doubt Uhuru listen to some sijui St Mary boys. Those are power brokers who are leeching on him and have zero political experience. It also the same with Matiangis-Kibichos - who are civil servants leeching on him - zero political expertise - these two groups have been unable to stop Ruto even for a minute.
If truly Uhuru was comitted to project Raila - he would have done more - he would have tried more. The promise now is for 3 months grand finale. Uhuru has managed to keep Raila on his promises....next month he will accampaign Raila to central for 5yrs now
- next month cabinet reshuffle. Next month - he will merge Jubilee with ODM.
If Uhuru was fool and was under impression he would influence next gov outside gov (inanity 101) - he would have done more to make Mps and leaders happy, he would have done more to save Jubilee, he would have done more to retain his influence in Mt kenya - doing more meaning showing directions, spending billions to match Ruto, and all the hardwork.
Now, knowing Uhuru is not a fool to imagine he will rule via proxy, knowing Raila history and distrust, I am inclined to go with your prediction.
Uhuru after passing of the budget - I think suplementary in feb - and 2022 in June or around - just before parliament dissolution - he will go MIA.
For now he is just paying lipservices - and you can see even folks close to him - who are politically competent are leaving in droves out of Jubilee for UDA/CCK/TSP.
The guys shouting Azimio either have a job (to ensure Uhuru political job mostly in parliament and senate - Kimunyas) or are politically - the naive St mary-civil servant boys - whom like Raila are being led to down to their own destruction. The rest are brokers interested in minting money from Raila campaign...Kionis/Kaninis.
The way I see - Uhuru will continue to pretend to be Azimio for another two months - and then go MIA. It's in his best interest to go MIA - play 50-50.
The matiangis-kibichos-ngatias-and murathes - will be left holding an empty bag. Then they will understand why the political class have one by one abandoned Uhuru long time ago - and political non-starters are in the forefront of AZIMIO la Wananchi - of Jaramgoi.Uhuru is one brilliant guy, He has clarity of mind. He can go for what he wants.
Om his succession you can see there is something amiss , Very clear he is following a script. This is where you see Uhuru the Instituion rather than Uhuru the leader . St Marys boys and his advisors are doing the decision making. They are being driven by simply wanting to have a say in the next government continue holding vital positions and department in the next Government.
I think as you said they have shortterm and long term goals.
Shortterm like the coming Budget and longterm like having CSs in the next Government.
We have also experienced Uhuru making about turns at the crutial moments . In 2007 abandoning ODM for PNU and 2013 MDV Mademoni debacle. After the budget which will safeguard his assests and interests he might go for a drinking spree and detach himself from the succession.
Based on Both Moi and Kibakis experience that would be the best thing to do.