Its So Bad for ODM in Coast that They Chicken Out in Taita Taveta By Elections

[Nowayhaha]

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Leaving UDA and Jubilee to Battle it out....

https://standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001431948/uda-and-jubilee-face-off-in-two-ward-by-elections

[RV Pundit]

Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely

[RV Pundit]

The only place Raila might enjoy a resurgence is Gusii  due to Matiangi factor.  Mt Kenya  might get slight chance bump but Uhuru game plan Bado.Uhuru has jakom where he wants... totally dependant on him

[Nowayhaha]

Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa  which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.

Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely

[Nowayhaha]

Raila lost to Mwai Kibaki in 2007 in Kisii. He evened out with Uhuru in 2017 . A substantial number of voters just like Kuria dont like the Dominance in Nyanza. Depending on how Ruto plays his cards he will win in noth Kisii and Nyamira Counties.

The only place Raila might enjoy a resurgence is Gusii  due to Matiangi factor.  Mt Kenya  might get slight chance bump but Uhuru game plan Bado.Uhuru has jakom where he wants... totally dependant on him

[RV Pundit]

I think he still strong in Kilifi and Mombasa - at least he has slightly edge on Ruto there. Ruto is stronger in Kwale and Taita Taveta. The Tana river and Lamu will as always be 50-50. So looking at coast breaking 50-50.

Coast was ODM stronghold outside Luo Nyanza - of the 60 elected seats - 35 were Luos - and 20 almost from Coast - and 10 mps from elsewhere (that is how badly ODM was).

Now we are looking at ODM reducing to about 45 elected Mps.

Post 2022 - It will be like 2013 - there is no negotiation. Ruto will not entertain Jakom or anybody else because he can win and maintain political support.

Moi needed NDP in 1997 - he had razor thin majority in parliament.
Kibaki needed Raila in 2002 to win elections.
Kibaki could not possibly govern in 2007 with ODM controlling parliament.
Uhuru needed Raila in 2017 to slice Ruto and eat alone.

Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa  which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.

Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely

[RV Pundit]

Gusii i see 1) Matiangi factor and 2) GEMA/PEV factor - I think for now Ruto should not expect anything more than 35 percent - but Gusii are mercurial people. You just never know as they are a quarrelsome bunch and hard to agree btw themselves. Last election Nyamira and Gusii pulled a shocker on Jakom. Not a single ODM MP made through. What is a given is almost everyone get votes from Gusii - even Moi did.

Raila lost to Mwai Kibaki in 2007 in Kisii. He evened out with Uhuru in 2017 . A substantial number of voters just like Kuria dont like the Dominance in Nyanza. Depending on how Ruto plays his cards he will win in noth Kisii and Nyamira Counties.

[Nowayhaha]

Raila win Mombasa and if Uhuru supports him openly the will lose in Kilifi. As we speak now ODM has made the same mistake of Nyanza where established  politicians have hijacked ODM County leadership and are trying to use it at their advantage to win nominations. You know the relationship between reknowned politicians and electorate. Ruto might have a grandslam in Kilifi.

I think he still strong in Kilifi and Mombasa - at least he has slightly edge on Ruto there. Ruto is stronger in Kwale and Taita Taveta. The Tana river and Lamu will as always be 50-50. So looking at coast breaking 50-50.

Coast was ODM stronghold outside Luo Nyanza - of the 60 elected seats - 35 were Luos - and 20 almost from Coast - and 10 mps from elsewhere (that is how badly ODM was).

Now we are looking at ODM reducing to about 45 elected Mps.

Post 2022 - It will be like 2013 - there is no negotiation. Ruto will not entertain Jakom or anybody else because he can win and maintain political support.

Moi needed NDP in 1997 - he had razor thin majority in parliament.
Kibaki needed Raila in 2002 to win elections.
Kibaki could not possibly govern in 2007 with ODM controlling parliament.
Uhuru needed Raila in 2017 to slice Ruto and eat alone.

Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa  which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.

Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely

[RV Pundit]

Kiagu look headed for UDA as expected with Moses Kuria CCK coming second...dying embers of Jubilee

NKURA

Simon Kiambi (UDA) - 231

SAMSON Kinyua (Jubilee) - 46

Milton Mwenda (CCK) - 28#KIAGUDECIDES

— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) December 16, 2021

[RV Pundit]

Neck to Neck btw Jubilee and UDA in Taita Taveta

MAHOO Ward

Taita Taveta

13/14 Polling Stations

UDA 1399

Jubilee 1375#TAITADECIDES

— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) December 16, 2021

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Coast is gone with expception of Mombasa  which will vote Raila 60 to 40 % Ruto and Kilifi where They will even out at 50%
The other counties where Raila was getting a substanyial number of votes because of Kenyatta factor is West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu.
Raila if he wants to be in the next Govt he should just sit out in the upcomming elections. After 1997 loss he manged to use Mark Too imfluence to get in to Govt. After 2007 loss he managed to use P.E.V. to get nusu mkate . He tried to replicate that in 2013 & 2017 but Ruto kept him at bay. In 2018 he used handshake.
In 2022 if Ruto agrees to another handshake he will pay dearly come 2027.

Taita Taveta, kwale and bungoma they are out completely

Ruto will not do handshake with jaCon. At best he will eviscerate him, at worse, he will make sure he is remains irrelevant!

[Fairandbalanced]

Why the silence on Jubilee winning Taita Taveta?

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Why the silence on Jubilee winning Taita Taveta?

Jubilee and UDA are cousins. In the absence of Jubilee, UDA sweeps. In ODM vs Jubilee bout, UDA folks pulls a lever for Jubilee if no UDA candidate and vice versa. In short Jubilee voters would rather go UDA than ODM.

[Njuri Ncheke]

I keep repeating myself I don't see this election going to second round at all. 57% to Ruto on first round.