Yeah Kalonzo is a must have for Raila. MaDVD plus Weta can also make it beyond rigging margin. Ruto is in very good place. He is just on the finishing touches.
The rest are still all over the maps and have no clear path to victory. This is going to cost them as most people are going to run to Ruto.
Uhuru is playing games with Jakom - otherwise he probably would have gone for bidding war with Ruto - by spending money in campaigns.
Kalonzo or mudavadi won't inherit all raila voters. They would lose western and coast. It is either raila bust for opposition. If ruto nick kalonzo it is over