Special Thread on Ethiopia war

[RV Pundit]

TDF back to their homeland

We have just completed the withdrawal of our forces from both #Amhara&#Afar regions. By doing so, we believe we have taken away whatever excuse the the international community to explain its feet-dragging when it comes to putting pressure on #AbiyAhmed & his regional partners in

— Getachew K Reda (@reda_getachew) December 20, 2021

[RV Pundit]

Tigray cry to UNSC to impose no fly zone and arm sales embargo on Ethiopia

Baby Abiy respond with a drone attack.

UNSC expected to discuss Ethiopia today

Ethiopia/Alert 2

Letter to UN offering TDF withdrawal from all positions into Tigray. pic.twitter.com/2AgIGaH5Kt

— Rashid Abdi (@RAbdiAnalyst) December 20, 2021

[mankind]

  Some response from Ethiopians on the offer

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

TDF back to their homeland

We have just completed the withdrawal of our forces from both #Amhara&#Afar regions. By doing so, we believe we have taken away whatever excuse the the international community to explain its feet-dragging when it comes to putting pressure on #AbiyAhmed & his regional partners in

— Getachew K Reda (@reda_getachew) December 20, 2021

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

[KenyanPlato]

TDF back to their homeland

We have just completed the withdrawal of our forces from both #Amhara&#Afar regions. By doing so, we believe we have taken away whatever excuse the the international community to explain its feet-dragging when it comes to putting pressure on #AbiyAhmed & his regional partners in

— Getachew K Reda (@reda_getachew) December 20, 2021

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

Let us see. Abiy has a chance to be an emperor.

[mankind]

 We are staring at the same craziness here too according to this article.

  https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html

[KenyanPlato]

We are staring at the same craziness here too according to this article.

  https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html

Biden should appoint a hit squad to deal with these morons. They ought to be ruthless and not just make them retreat but put their leadership in Graves. Time too has come for 🇺🇸 to think on question of Trump. There is only one efficient way of ending his cult.

[RV Pundit]

Easier said than done. Without local population support; it very expensive to put troops on the ground. So this stalemate will become a border dispute. For Baby Emperor Abiy, he can sustain this war longer if he avoid human rights violations, allow food aid to flow, and respect the UN.

While China and Russia seem reluctantly to impose sanctions...nothing stops the US and their Western friends from imposing crippling bilateral sanctions on Ethiopia. They should ask Iran.

Let see if he will allows recently formed Ethiopia human rights probe to start work - if refuse entry to Ethiopia - Sanctions will come - if not from the UNSC - then from those countries - pretty much EU and US.

With the toll of war (destruction on critical infrastructures) and such sanctions - Ethiopia - will go back to stone age that Meles Zenawi found in 1990.

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Easier said than done. Without local population support; it very expensive to put troops on the ground. So this stalemate will become a border dispute. For Baby Emperor Abiy, he can sustain this war longer if he avoid human rights violations, allow food aid to flow, and respect the UN.

While China and Russia seem reluctantly to impose sanctions...nothing stops the US and their Western friends from imposing crippling bilateral sanctions on Ethiopia. They should ask Iran.

Let see if he will allows recently formed Ethiopia human rights probe to start work - if refuse entry to Ethiopia - Sanctions will come - if not from the UNSC - then from those countries - pretty much EU and US.

With the toll of war (destruction on critical infrastructures) and such sanctions - Ethiopia - will go back to stone age that Meles Zenawi found in 1990.

They should pursue them and destroy them while they are down.  America is still dealing with repercussions of not obliterating the South and locking up or hanging the instigators during their civil war.

It depends on how strong TPLF currently is.  If Ethiopia can finish them off, they should.  They can deal with the geopolitics after that.  It's a war, so human rights are going to be compromised no matter what; of course they should try and minimize them.

[RV Pundit]

Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID

[KenyanPlato]

Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

[RV Pundit]

Yes it's like Somali. Those guys are all radicals. Even small difference btw clans like Somalia are resolved by sword fights. Kenyans our difference are superficial. Those guys really hate each other. Even interrmarriage is tough.

It almost impossible to find those guys sharing anything unless they are from same tribe or clan or sub tribe. Kenyans we just shout - but still eat, dine, marry, name it together.

Our wars are superficial - their beef is historical. Our tribalism is a joke. A luo will marry a Kikuyu. A kikuyu will have Luo as his best friend. A Kalenjin just after war will be taking dowry to a kikuyu.

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

[KenyanPlato]

Yes, I noticed that even at my previous job you will see Ethiopians not interacting with each other much. I thought may be because it was a vast country they were not close to each other but this war has proved that these guys just hate each other to death. The nationalism thing is just a unity of purpose to deal with tigrayans but these guys need to go separate ways and form a federation. There is no country there

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Abiy has no intention of ceasefire and enters southern tigray - captures towns

Invalid Tweet ID

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

I get that they are a federation.  But I don't see what he is doing as different from what any recognized leader of any other country would do in his situation.  We know what would happen in the US if Texas tried to secede.  The government will reclaim the entire state before giving consideration, if any, to their demands.  And this would happen even though many would be happy to see Texas go and build a wall to keep them out. 

On the question of radicalization /extremism, I am seeing it as a global problem currently.  I get a sense of the gradual collapse of the order that came out of World War II.

[KenyanPlato]

Bitmask,
This is not a case of Tigrayans trying to secede. They are being forced to consider this choice. The problem is a political one where abiy wants to recentralize power. Ethiopians feel that the ethnic federation that was negotiated during tplf years in power is not good and they want to replace it. Abiy has taken this opportunity to try and weaken the ethnic federation and take that power to make himself a dictator for life. Tigray never choose this war it was imposed on them by Abiy. He used the political differences to invite plan to invade tigray with help of Eritrea. General Tsadkan who is leading tigray forces was in Abiy government until he resigned when he found out abiy intentions were. He had split from tplf leadership and joined abiy.

Without solving the political issue the war is useless and a waste of time. There is no way abiy will be able to take the power from the regions. Even right now if amhara and afar regions had a political fall out with abiy he has no way of controlling them. Endf is weak without regional militias.

Bottomline is Ethiopians want to address historical injustices by punishing Tigrayans. To me that is waste of time and the best solution is to look forward.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Bitmask,
This is not a case of Tigrayans trying to secede. They are being forced to consider this choice. The problem is a political one where abiy wants to recentralize power. Ethiopians feel that the ethnic federation that was negotiated during tplf years in power is not good and they want to replace it. Abiy has taken this opportunity to try and weaken the ethnic federation and take that power to make himself a dictator for life. Tigray never choose this war it was imposed on them by Abiy. He used the political differences to invite plan to invade tigray with help of Eritrea. General Tsadkan who is leading tigray forces was in Abiy government until he resigned when he found out abiy intentions were. He had split from tplf leadership and joined abiy.

Without solving the political issue the war is useless and a waste of time. There is no way abiy will be able to take the power from the regions. Even right now if amhara and afar regions had a political fall out with abiy he has no way of controlling them. Endf is weak without regional militias.

Bottomline is Ethiopians want to address historical injustices by punishing Tigrayans. To me that is waste of time and the best solution is to look forward.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Yes it's like Somali. Those guys are all radicals. Even small difference btw clans like Somalia are resolved by sword fights. Kenyans our difference are superficial. Those guys really hate each other. Even interrmarriage is tough.

It almost impossible to find those guys sharing anything unless they are from same tribe or clan or sub tribe. Kenyans we just shout - but still eat, dine, marry, name it together.

Our wars are superficial - their beef is historical. Our tribalism is a joke. A luo will marry a Kikuyu. A kikuyu will have Luo as his best friend. A Kalenjin just after war will be taking dowry to a kikuyu.

He gonna get what he is looking for. The idiot is really taking this country towards a path more destruction. He won't listen because Ethiopia seems to be having more radicals and ignorant people than intellectuals. There is something about Ethiopians that I am yet to define what is that shows them to be very unreasonable radicalized people.

That's because in that region, Kenyan groups were more tribal(as opposed to nation states/kingdoms).  They are therefore less set in their ways and more open to foreign influence and subsequently more tolerant of differences.

[RV Pundit]

Insightful. That make sense.

That's because in that region, Kenyan groups were more tribal(as opposed to nation states/kingdoms).  They are therefore less set in their ways and more open to foreign influence and subsequently more tolerant of differences.

[RV Pundit]

I think issue started with 2020 election. Baby Abiy postponed it citing COVID-19. Tigray went ahead and did the elections - and called Abiy illegitimate.
The central issues is Abiy attempt to centralize power - by forming prosperity party.
Previously each nation had their own parties.
Some were active in the regions - while others would form coalition nationally.

In any case that is water under the bridge. The war is on. The advantage has swing back to Abiy. Six months ago Abiy forces were fleeing Tigray. Now they are back with drones.

How will Tigray respond to this? They go and hide in their hills?

Right now they are asking their allies in Western to impose non flight zone and embargo on arm sales....but will China and Turkey respect that...nope.

Tigray options are now severely limited - because Turkish drones are doing heavy damage.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.

[Nowayhaha]

Hope by now you accept Njuri was right from start.
Same thing or worse will happen if so called warriors try to take on the government.

I think issue started with 2020 election. Baby Abiy postponed it citing COVID-19. Tigray went ahead and did the elections - and called Abiy illegitimate.
The central issues is Abiy attempt to centralize power - by forming prosperity party.
Previously each nation had their own parties.
Some were active in the regions - while others would form coalition nationally.

In any case that is water under the bridge. The war is on. The advantage has swing back to Abiy. Six months ago Abiy forces were fleeing Tigray. Now they are back with drones.

How will Tigray respond to this? They go and hide in their hills?

Right now they are asking their allies in Western to impose non flight zone and embargo on arm sales....but will China and Turkey respect that...nope.

Tigray options are now severely limited - because Turkish drones are doing heavy damage.

Ethiopia says Tigray attacked first.  If that is true(I am not saying it is), then their actions would be consistent with the expected behavior of a modern government.  If Abiy really believes what he says, then he is acting rationally.